Quote:
Originally Posted by lefthandlow
john swetye
he's the guy for dr Z he's on the board
a good guy btw
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Thanks, leftandlow!!!!
I stopped selling the drz software temporarily for a couple of reasons.
1. For a time BRIS stopped carrying tote data for too many important tracks. The industry doesn't get it -- when they stop providing data, people quit betting.
Fortunately, that issue seems to be resolved and BRIS now has most tracks again.
2. I'm just too damn busy. Too many people were buying the software who didn't even understand how to operate the Windows operating system. I'm not in the business of teaching Windows functionality. I'd spend an hour on the phone trying to explain to some guy in Poughkeepsie how to create directories and drag and drop files. So my customer service costs were too high compared to the revenue the software generated.
3. If too many people use the same system the system will no longer work. Unfortunately, that is a fact of life with pari-mutuel wagering.
4. People who use the Dr. Z system and also get rebates make it hard for the small player who is playing the system without rebates to win. This is related to factor 3.
That said, I have been using the system since the early 1990s and have never lost money over the course of the season betting place and show with the system. I don't know why it works for me and not for others. Of course, that doesn't mean I always come out ahead on all of my wagering combined -- exotics and straight pools
But Dr. Z for place and show has always subsidized my exotic betting and one of these days I will hit that monster pick 6!
I follow the rules of the system. The mathematics are sound. If a horse has 20% of the win pool and only 15% of the show pool and the horse is paying more to show than it should based on it's win probability, then over a large number of races you will likely come out ahead. That's been my experience.
The Dr. Z system uses the Harville Formulas which are known to have some biases, but by and large, the bias is not large and if you want, you can adjust for it, if you want to take the time to figure out the proper adjustments.
My experience has been that the system can have some seasonality. I don't know why. Some tracks always work better in the winter than in the summer. And vice versa. I had a great year the last year of Del Mar dirt racing. And then an awful year during the first all-weather meeting. The public's win estimates must not have been as good during the first year of poly.
I've never had any luck at Northfield Park, but do well at other harness tracks. Why is Northfield so difficult? I've never taken the time to analyze the Dr. Z system at Northfield -- I just scaled back my betting there. Some harness tracks produce excellent profits year in and year out.
I've spent a lot of time gathering and tracking my betting information so I'm not going to give away the keys to my profit machine. It's like anything else, you have to put in the time. It is harder today than in the past for the above mentioned reasons. But there are still profits to be made.
One last reason some people don't like it is because they think betting place or show is not exciting -- not macho enough maybe? My response to that sentiment is that if you don't find place and show betting exciting maybe it's because you're not betting enough. If you're getting $4.00 to show on a horse that should be paying $2.60 ( a huge overlay with a high strike rate) then try betting $500 instead of $5. That will give you something to be excited about.
One last thing, if you add your own handicapping to the Dr. Z system the results are even better. But Dr. Z will be the first to admit that you probably can not make a living betting his system.
One more last thing... I've never had a problem with late money. Overall, the late money effects evens out. Sometimes your bet will lose it's expectations -- but this happened to me pre-internet, too. And sometimes your bets will have improved expectations.
I've done studies of late odds changes and never found the one minute to posts to be significantly different over a large sample than the final odds. Remember, everyone is betting under the same time constraints and without seeing all the late money.