Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapper's Corner


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 6 votes, 5.00 average.
Old 02-24-2014, 07:12 PM   #1
Errol
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 9
Purse Value

I'm trying to remember the formulae for figuring the average purse value a horse has been racing for.

Example: Eleven starts this year and earned $42,690.
42,690. divided by 11 = 3881 per race.

But I want to know the average purse size.

The horse has:
2 wins; 1 place; 4 shows & 3 4th place finishes.

There is a factor for each 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place finish which Divided into the $42,690 will give the average purse size the horse was running for. This was a powerful factor years ago (no it did not make a flat bet profit).

I will appreciate any help thank, you so much.

Vaya Con Dios
Errol
Errol is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-24-2014, 07:28 PM   #2
stu
Registered User
 
stu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Etobicoke, ON, CANADA
Posts: 1,022
There is no good short cut as the purse distribution percentages vary by track and race condition. Additionally, the numbers may not reflect state bred bonuses.
__________________
http://charitablewager.com
All of my posts are independent of my current employer.
stu is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-24-2014, 07:45 PM   #3
Ocala Mike
Registered User
 
Ocala Mike's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 5,005
What stu said. I used to use the following "average" distributions when figuring this angle (I don't anymore):

1st - 60%
2md - 20%
3rd - 12%
4th - 8%
Ocala Mike is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-24-2014, 10:29 PM   #4
mkkash
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 42
Hi Errol

Another one has tasted the apple.

This is a good problem to solve so let's take a crack at it.
__________________
"Make A Pocket Full Of Play Dough"
mkkash is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-24-2014, 11:13 PM   #5
dastar
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 72
Errol,

Are you talking about the Kelco Calculator from 25 or so years back?

That used a mathematical formula. Covered 1st 2nd 3rd and 4th places and you simply entered the total money won and race track.

Dave

Last edited by dastar; 02-24-2014 at 11:14 PM. Reason: wrong word
dastar is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-24-2014, 11:23 PM   #6
mkkash
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by mkkash
Hi Errol

Another one has tasted the apple.

This is a good problem to solve so let's take a crack at it.
In which state(s) are you playing horses?

In California the prize (purse money) is split between the first five horses
to cross the finish line.

Winners share is 60%
Place share is 20%
Show share is 12%
Fourth share is 6%
Fifth share is 2%

First find the date and track for each race

Go to: http://equibase.com

Click on Results-----Full Charts
Select the track of Horse last race
If you do not see the date on display
Click on the............MORE

This will take you to the historical charts section.

Select Track Then Year You Know the date just click it.

Once the PDF comes up scroll to the Race Number And find the
PV Purse value.

Record the purse value for all 11 Of his prize money earnings
Total this and divide by 11 will give you the avg purse.

Con Grats on First post>

MK Kash
__________________
"Make A Pocket Full Of Play Dough"
mkkash is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-24-2014, 11:32 PM   #7
mkkash
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Errol
I'm trying to remember the formulae for figuring the average purse value a horse has been racing for.

Example: Eleven starts this year and earned $42,690.
42,690. divided by 11 = 3881 per race.

But I want to know the average purse size.

The horse has:
2 wins; 1 place; 4 shows & 3 4th place finishes.

There is a factor for each 1st, 2nd, 3rd & 4th place finish which Divided into the $42,690 will give the average purse size the horse was running for. This was a powerful factor years ago (no it did not make a flat bet profit).

I will appreciate any help thank, you so much.

Vaya Con Dios
Errol
The total is 10 not 11 so divide the total prize money by 10.

MKK
__________________
"Make A Pocket Full Of Play Dough"
mkkash is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-25-2014, 03:19 AM   #8
Errol
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 9
Wrong, Wrong

I knew I was wording my request wrong.
I know the approx distribution.

There are factors for each win, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. You multiply each win, 2ed etc. total the factors and divide (or multiply) the total into the total winnings for the year or both years.

The result is the approx value the horse has been running purse wise.

And yes, I believe the Kelco Class Calculator used a similar algorithm.

Vaya Con Dios
Errol
Errol is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-25-2014, 03:43 AM   #9
Errol
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 9
Oh why I need it!

I'm using Quick Horse and have programmed my own Methods for 5.5Fur, 6Fur, 8Fur and 8.5Fur.

It's taken me about three months to make it work and I think adding approx purse value will sharpen my approuch.

I've spent a lot of time at the computer and it wasn't untill I realized that at my track (Golden Gate Fields) Brohammer, Quiren and Sarten have remarkably little to do with winning.

None of the Methods that came programmed into Quick Horse won or came close. I was discouraged, but then a user on the Quick Horse Forum gave me some insight and in less than a week bingo.

I threw out pace makes the race. It ain't no get rich quick but slow and steady and no long losing streaks suits me just fine.

Vaya Con Dios
Errol
Errol is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-25-2014, 07:10 AM   #10
HUSKER55
Registered User
 
HUSKER55's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: MILWAUKEE
Posts: 5,285
If you can get that earnigs box to pay off then I salute you.

# of wins X .6
# of place X.2
# of show X .1

[ todays purse / [earnings / [ above ] ] ]

That value is the average race and a win carries the same value as a show.

I can't remember who did this, ( assistance please ), but there is a regression program that said to take .88 for wins, .45 for place and .22 for show and that would produce the typical race.

Verify the last one because I can't remember who did it or the actual numbers. Maybe one of you other guys can assist.

Good luck.
__________________
Never tell your problems to anyone because 20% flat don't care and 80% are glad they are yours.

No Balls.......No baby!

Have you ever noticed that those who do not have a pot to piss in nor a window to throw it out of always seem to know how to handle the money of those who do.
HUSKER55 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-25-2014, 12:19 PM   #11
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,527
Does anyone have guideline for how much the typical state bred purse is inflated relative to the quality of the horses?
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-25-2014, 04:00 PM   #12
Errol
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 9
Thank You

Quote:

If you can get that earnigs box to pay off then I salute you.

# of wins X .6
# of place X.2
# of show X .1

[ todays purse / [earnings / [ above ] ] ]

That value is the average race and a win carries the same value as a show.

I can't remember who did this, ( assistance please ), but there is a regression program that said to take .88 for wins, .45 for place and .22 for show and that would produce the typical race.

Verify the last one because I can't remember who did it or the actual numbers. Maybe one of you other guys can assist.

Good luck.
__________________
A fool and his words are soon parted - William Shakespere

Only the weak are cruel, gentleness is expected only from the strong - Leo Rosten

I'll check it out and if it prroofs, I'll let you know. Again thanks for both pieces of info.

Vaya Con Dios
Errol
Errol is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-25-2014, 04:04 PM   #13
RXB
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 3,787
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Does anyone have guideline for how much the typical state bred purse is inflated relative to the quality of the horses?
Varies a lot according to jurisdiction, race classifications, etc.

I never cared for the idea of purse-value handicapping and now I think it would be not only useless but downright misleading much of the time.
RXB is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-25-2014, 08:54 PM   #14
mkkash
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 42
Quack Quack

Quote:
Originally Posted by RXB
Varies a lot according to jurisdiction, race classifications, etc.

I never cared for the idea of purse-value handicapping and now I think it would be not only useless but downright misleading much of the time.
If it sounds like a duck it might be a Poodle!!!

Every bit of Data is important in horse racing it all means something or
more than one thing.

Think Smart

MKK
__________________
"Make A Pocket Full Of Play Dough"
mkkash is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-25-2014, 09:06 PM   #15
mkkash
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 42
You Got IT Right

Quote:
Originally Posted by Errol
I knew I was wording my request wrong.
I know the approx distribution.

There are factors for each win, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. You multiply each win, 2ed etc. total the factors and divide (or multiply) the total into the total winnings for the year or both years.

The result is the approx value the horse has been running purse wise.

And yes, I believe the Kelco Class Calculator used a similar algorithm.

Vaya Con Dios
Errol
Let's try this:
AVERAGE PURSE VALUE: Using the purse distribution formula (.60 x wins, .20 x seconds, .12 x thirds and .06 x fourths OR local circuit purse payout percentages times earnings)

Let us know how it works.

MKK
__________________
"Make A Pocket Full Of Play Dough"
mkkash is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:38 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.