Pace Handicapping

[Smarty Cide]

What is someone looking for in the PP's to pace handicap?

[bgbootha]

Pace makes the race....I have to admit, I have used a number of different paths to determine the pace model of a race.

- Looking at Quirin Numbers and Running Styles
- Looking at 1st call and 2nd call placement during last few races
- E2 speed
- Race Replays

But if I am being honest, I have started using HBD's Early Pace figures and their Pace Scenerio / Likely winner pace.

There is a cost to it, but it saves me soo much time

[turninforhome10]

Finding which pace lines to use in the predicted pace is a big key. Knowing which line to use and how to model the race is the toughest part of the equation. Assuming that a horse will go to the front or the pace will be hot enough for a closer can seem daunting. Experience and learning to trust your models can be a long and expensive endeavor. I have been playing for 22 years and only within the last 3 have I come up with something that I trust and that took me 2 years to build. Many pace handicapping systems can be proven effective and IMHO come from a marriage of the players betting style and how they apply their data. Just like with any other approach, you can't use the data blindly. Knowing what pace factor is best applied and picking up the subtle hints that a track is trending towards a bias can be a very useful tool for profitability and personally when I learn these things, I have a hard time sharing. The difference between just a few races on a card can be the difference between a good day and a great day.

[thaskalos]

Pace "analysis" beats pace "number-crunching"...IMO.

[cj]

I look at pace as part of the trip, or a one race bias. Which horses did the pace favor or not favor? Were any segments of the race noticeably faster than the others?

If so, which horses made moves during that segment. Most importantly, which horses were wide on a turn during that part of the race?

That is what I do. Predicting the pace of upcoming races is minor part of my handicapping, I prefer to look at past races. Once the gate opens anything can and will happen. I want to be on the best horse and hope for a good trip, not on a slower horse counting on one.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cj

I look at pace as part of the trip, or a one race bias. Which horses did the pace favor or not favor? Were any segments of the race noticeably faster than the others?

If so, which horses made moves during that segment. Most importantly, which horses were wide on a turn during that part of the race?

That is what I do. Predicting the pace of upcoming races is minor part of my handicapping, I prefer to look at past races. Once the gate opens anything can and will happen. I want to be on the best horse and hope for a good trip, not on a slower horse counting on one.

This is what I believe too.

The real strength of "pace handicapping" lies not in predicting what is likely to occur in the future...but in helping us to realize more fully what occurred in the past.

[bgbootha]

I agree with some of what people say, but the first step in my handicapping and I would argue the most important step isn't figuring out who I am going to be on to win, or who I think has the best chance of winning.

My first step is crossing off horses that can't win. Looking at the expected Pace Scenerio for that day is the most important thing I can use to cross horses off.

[Dark Horse]

I would pay special attention to solo speeds, likely speed duels, as well as to jockeys who tend to favor their own racing style over the horse's running style.

[speed]

Originally Posted by cj

I look at pace as part of the trip, or a one race bias. Which horses did the pace favor or not favor? Were any segments of the race noticeably faster than the others?

If so, which horses made moves during that segment. Most importantly, which horses were wide on a turn during that part of the race?

That is what I do. Predicting the pace of upcoming races is minor part of my handicapping, I prefer to look at past races. Once the gate opens anything can and will happen. I want to be on the best horse and hope for a good trip, not on a slower horse counting on one.

This post contains knowledge that took me 14 years of losing before i learned what you summed up in 30 seconds.

[cj]

Originally Posted by speed

This post contains knowledge that took me 14 years of losing before i learned what you summed up in 30 seconds.

Thanks, I really appreciate you taking the time to say that.

[DJofSD]

cj said it well enough. I'd just add that, as Doc used to say, pace is just the race within the race. Once you understand that, the rest should more or less follow.

[Fingal]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Pace "analysis" beats pace "number-crunching"...IMO.

One of the greatest advantages of having a good set of pace numbers is eliminating the losers, the ones that don't fit (either under or over)the characteristics of that particular race.

[DRIVEWAY]

Originally Posted by Dark Horse

I would pay special attention to solo speeds, likely speed duels, as well as to jockeys who tend to favor their own racing style over the horse's running style.

Do you base this upon personal observations/opinions or do you have a statistical/professional source for Jockey Racing Style?

Looking forward to your feedback.

Thanks

[fmolf]

Pace makes the race to a certain degree.We have all seen supposed speed horses or frontrunners left at the gate,whose smart and patient jockey rather than rush to the front hangs back and the horse closes in the lane to win,or (less frequent)the closer who inherits the lead by default who lopes along on the front end and charges down the lane to win.

[Smarty Cide]

what would it say for the pace if you look at the pp and see a bunch of stalkers