My thoughts and blog post on the Tampa Bay Derby
My Picks =
Your morning line favorite is the 2 SURFING USA who is coming off a second place finish to derby contender Top Billing in an OC75k back at the end of January. Most would assume this would be a jump up in class coming out of a OC75k to a graded stakes, but the reality is that most of the horses in this race are probably much more suited to be running in those OC75k or ungraded stakes races. The inside post will help Surfing USA who will want and should be able to grab the rail and the pace during the early parts of the race. One interesting note about Surfing USA is that he yet to run two races on the same race track. All three of his previous races came from different tracks, from Belmont, to Aqueduct down to Gulfstream and now finally over to Tampa Bay. You can’t throw out this Todd Pletcher trained horse, and he may just be the best of this bunch.
The second choice in the morning line is CONQUEST TITAN who is coming off a distant second in the G2-Holy Bull losing to Cairo Prince who closed the Kentucky Derby futures pool as the favorite. Conquest Titan ran a good race but was clearly second to Cairo Prince that day. Conquest Titan hasn’t raced since the 25th of January and made a strong move from the back of the pack to come up strong in the Holy Bull. This race sets up pretty well for Conquest Titan who made need some help from up front to get a decent pace to run at. In what appears to be a relatively weak field, Conquest Titan has shown the ability to beat horses in this caliber before.
Another interesting horse in this race is the 6 VINCEREMOS who is coming off a nose victory here in Tampa Bay in the Sam F Davis stakes at odds of 12-1. Vinceremos also likes to come off the pace and has been working out well coming into this contest. Another Todd Pletcher entry will be sure to be part of the later part of the race and it may come down to who has the better trip between Vinceremos and Conquest Titan on who has the best chance to catch the leaders coming down the stretch.
EAST HALL is clearly the most raced horse in the field, but has already shown that he can’t run with these other horses, in fact East Hall hasn’t won a race since breaking his Maiden back in the middle of October, he may come up to steal a few points and get a part of the Trifecta or the Super, but I don’t’ see this horse being anywhere near the front come the finish line.
An interesting horse that I will have to include in my horizontals on this day would have to be the 4 COLTIMUS PRIME; besides having the best name in the field, this is a horse that has improved in every race he has ran and makes a move over to the dirt. Coming off two solid races on the Woodbine all weather surfaces, this is a horse that likes to be on or near the front and was barely caught by a nose in his last outing. There are plenty of things to allow other betters to cross this horse off their sheets, he finished second in a weaker field his last time out, is coming off a three month layoff and his connections are relatively unknown. That being said, he has shown constant improvement and the move to the dirt for an early pace horse can only help. He did run a 92 Brisnet speed rating his last time out which is near the top of this field. If he continues to improve he could have a decent shot to win this race at a good price.
This is a wide open race and the pace scenario looks to be interesting. At first glance it looks like it should be a fairly quick pace, but a great deal of the pace is coming from the outside in the 8 and the 10 leaving the 4 Coltimus Prime and the 2 Surfing USA on the inside to battle it out. It wouldn’t be crazy to me to see the Coltimus Prime wire this field, but if the pace is pressed, I would look for one of the favorites to eat them up coming down the stretch and steal a gate at the Kentucky Derby.
