Tampa Bay Derby/ San Felipe

[Leparoux]

It's always trendy on here to talk about how bad certain Derby preps come up but I think it is way too early to give up on some of these. Many have huge pedigrees, are lightly races and obviously have some upside.

Conquest Titan obviously can improve on his second start of the year. Showed speed early last year and now has become a one run closer. The horse to beat IMO.

Not real big on any of the horses coming out of the Sam F. Davis but the one I am watching is the other Casse horse, Matador.

Wise guy horse in this race is likely the Hy Kodiak Warrior who was last seen running 3rd to Commissioner and and Top Billing.

Really good card at Tampa on Saturday, looking forward to it.

[snickster]

I am liking #3 Matador. This horse was put in 150K stakes first out at WO and went off at 3-1 starting 3 lengths off and finishing 3 lengths off very even race against Go Greely who beat #10 Tuscan Getaway by 5 lengths in 44/4 fractions in previous race. Tuscan Getaway came back to run a respectable race on pace against Conquest Titan so they are all in the same league. Matador then was run in two distance turf races and did OK but bombed in next where some horse in the race bumped him badly (per PP comments) as he was 4th by 3 lengths at top of stretch then dropped back badly. In last ran very good race against #6 Vinceremos. John Oxley owner and Mark Casse trainer must have thought a lot of him to run him in that 150K stakes first out as a maiden (as these two are smart and experienced horsemen) and he ran very very good in that race. That race showed he has a lot of ability. He is just learning to run and in particular learning to run a distance of ground now so I would give him a pass on that 4th by 1 length in the last race to Vinceremos.

There is really no superstar in this race.

Conquest Titan looks like the most class horse but he really just picked up the pieces in last race the Holy Bull and just beat Intense Holiday who then came back to win the Risen Star but against not much. Also he lost to mediocre horse We Miss Artie and bombed out in the BC Juvenile.

Surfing USA got beat by Top Billing in last who came from the clouds to get 3rd in the Fountain of Youth with East Hall 4th, so I cannot think that Surfing USA has that much class.

Vinceremos just barely beat Harpoon by a nose in last out - Harpoon had to struggle to get 5th in the Gotham last week.

Tuscan Getaway might surprise at big odds as he also ran well against Go Greely at 6F WO like Matador did and he could take the lead and not look back. However, I have to think that Matador is a better horse

The rest I don't see anything special and have not really produced any very impressive races.

WPS #3 Exacta Box 3 with 2-5-6-7-10

[bks]

California Chrome is the morning line favorite, but i think he'll be right around 2-1 with Midnight Hawk with Kristos not far behind. CC is a standout to me.

Like the Rock Hard Ten colt on the outside to finish second.

[Grits]

This race will likely be nothing beyond a chalkfest, still the #5-Sawyer's Hill making his 3rd start could possibly make a bit of noise. And too, as you noted the #8, getting 1st lasix. This one off quite a long layoff though. Good luck.

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by ManU918

Potential? Hes already a graded winner on turf and finished 3rd in the Breeders Cup while be given one of the worst rides in the history of the sport. He will win this race then most likely take a shot in the Blue Grass.

You guys are way overrating him. I think he gets beat tomorrow.

[PhantomOnTour]

Getting a lot of hype, but I just cannot have him in the winners circle.
No way.

Hate to use that old phrase, but he's just too slow, period.
Will not get there.

[PhantomOnTour]

Originally Posted by ManU918

Exactly.... Bobby's Kitten is making is 3yO debut.

Neat how three other E types scratched from this race
Bobby will roll at 1-5

[ManU918]

Originally Posted by Thebigguy

You guys are way overrating him. I think he gets beat tomorrow.

LOL...That's what you call a public workout.

[pondman]

Tampa Bay Derby
Vineremos
Ring Weekend

San Felipe
Schoolofhardrocks
Midnight Hawk

[speed]

Tampa Derby #9. Barn change makes this horse a major player here. looks like an honest pace as well. Maybe get the 7 to plod in late as well.

[bks]

Trevor went "need to sprout wings" on that call. Horse is real, and man I wish Bayern was in today.

All about Louisville now.

[Grits]

Originally Posted by Grits

This race will likely be nothing beyond a chalkfest, still the #5-Sawyer's Hill making his 3rd start could possibly make a bit of noise. And too, as you noted the #8, getting 1st lasix. This one off quite a long layoff though. Good luck.

The 5 ran no more than half of this race... The 4 could've gone around once more.

[Robert Fischer]

4 was much the best horse + had a great trip

9 showed the same problems with lugging-in and hanging + mike smith gave a horrible ride

[tanner12oz]

Kinda odd start and stop ride on schoolofhardrocks...

[Robert Fischer]

crazy early Odds for the TBD

= unexpectedly high public odds - usually a bad sign

= unexpectedly low public odds - usually a good sign
-----------------------------
opinion
20cent super 258 2589 2589 = $3.60
20cent super 258 2589 25789 = $5.40

public
20cent super 359 3569 3569 = $3.60
20cent super 359 3569 23569 = $5.40

+ $5 across on