Effects of slow pace

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by JJMartin

Don't forget about physical appearance which counts for more than you think.

Do you honestly see such a big difference in physical appearance between the different horses in the race?

[JJMartin]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Do you honestly see such a big difference in physical appearance between the different horses in the race?

There can be some pre-race obvious signs (horse limping) and not so obvious. The gallop-out is another good indicator of form. Things not found in data in other words.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by JJMartin

There can be some pre-race obvious signs (horse limping) and not so obvious. The gallop-out is another good indicator of form. Things not found in data in other words.

You bring up some good points that might not be easily recognizable by the "untrained eye" and furthermore how would you quantitate such recognitions?

[JJMartin]

Originally Posted by Cratos

You bring up some good points that might not be easily recognizable by the "untrained eye" and furthermore how would you quantitate such recognitions?

By designing some form of evaluation that would yield a metric. It would of course be subjective but that's not new to handicapping. What ever the result of that metric, it could be integrated with hard data like speed figures, fps, points of call etc.

[shots]

Originally Posted by RXB

If I was a jockey and somebody was telling me to ride to protect a top three finish more than trying to win, knowing what it would do to my bottom line over the long haul I'd be saying thanks-but-no-thanks without a moment's hesitation. And the jockey's agent would have the same reaction, I'm sure. Especially if we're talking about the type of locked-and-loaded horse upon which the initial post in this thread was based. There would also be an integrity issue.

A trainer would know your habits before he would put you on one of his horses. It's a matter of trust.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by shots

A trainer would know your habits before he would put you on one of his horses. It's a matter of trust.

At AQU today I heard a trainer vent about how no matter what instructions I give these guys, they do the opposite.

I coincidentally marked the horse down as having a poor trip prior to hearing him.

5 minutes later, I hear him venting. Felt bad for him.

Horse had the rail and a nice spot. Jock went from the rail to 3/8 mid ct, chased hard in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of the route (fastest parts of race as well). Could've just sat inside and earned a check or won the race. Made a total bonehead move.

Trust is not something I saw there.....

[shots]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

At AQU today I heard a trainer vent about how no matter what instructions I give these guys, they do the opposite.

I coincidentally marked the horse down as having a poor trip prior to hearing him.

5 minutes later, I hear him venting. Felt bad for him.

Horse had the rail and a nice spot. Jock went from the rail to 3/8 mid ct, chased hard in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of the route (fastest parts of race as well). Could've just sat inside and earned a check or won the race. Made a total bonehead move.

Trust is not something I saw there.....

What you going to do, the jocks have their own way. But at the track you have to be able to forget and move on.

[EMD4ME]

Originally Posted by shots

What you going to do, the jocks have their own way. But at the track you have to be able to forget and move on.

I don't forget LOL. I use it my trip notes for a horse's future starts. And I use it to judge how specific jocks ride.

It's just pathetic that a trainer has to have no trust in his jock.

He swore that he'll use all apprentices from now on. Maybe they'll listen better than the ortiz boys do

[shots]

Originally Posted by EMD4ME

I don't forget LOL. I use it my trip notes for a horse's future starts. And I use it to judge how specific jocks ride.

It's just pathetic that a trainer has to have no trust in his jock.

He swore that he'll use all apprentices from now on. Maybe they'll listen better than the ortiz boys do

Maybe he should find a jock not afraid of the rail.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by RXB

Guys who win at the rate of McLaughlin or Brown or Pletcher, I don't think they are very often giving instructions that compromise their horses' chances of winning. I'll agree to disagree on this one and leave it at that.

Guys like that spot their horses in races they can win.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

My belief, and smarter guys than me that follow NYRA have come around to this, is that the purses for 2/3/4 finishers are too good now and many would rather "play it safe" than try to win and risk and off the board finish.

I think most of this "try to win stuff" is overrated.

If you duel with a superior horse "trying to win", you are going to lose that battle and finish worse than you would have way more often than not.

If you sit just off him and that superior horse has a bad day, you'll inherit the lead early and be in a great spot. If he's sharp you can still get second.

There may be some marginal cases where you are on a horse that prefers the lead and you aren't really sure if you can outrun the other speeds or how aggressive they will get if you go, but either way it's going to work sometimes and screw you up other times.

IMO the only really bad rides are the ones when the horse clearly has enough speed to get the lead without being used, the pace winds up being slow, and the rider is choking back a horse that clearly wants to run.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

...

IMO the only really bad rides are the ones when the horse clearly has enough speed to get the lead without being used, the pace winds up being slow, and the rider is choking back a horse that clearly wants to run.

I agree that this is one example of a bad ride but there are others i.e., jockey falls off etc.