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Old 08-08-2018, 03:47 PM   #31
Robert Fischer
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
IMO, the dynamics were definitely bad for the inferior speeds trying to keep up with Diversify, but imo that's not automatically the same as saying they were bad for Diversify.

When a track is favoring speed or one of the speeds is dominant, it will sometimes torch the others and go on to victory despite fast fractions.

That's kind of what I am getting at with Diversify and Mind Your Biscuits.

Everyone is going to look at this race and say:

Diversify set a fast pace, killed the other speeds, and won as much the best. Mind Your Biscuits ran OK for 2nd but generally got a good setup. That's a reasonable conclusion and will probably be correct.

My contention is:

It's at least reasonable to wonder if the sealed Saratoga racetrack got speed favoring with all the water on it as has been the case on other days like that. If it did, sure, Diversify won. But perhaps people are overrating his performance and the difference between him and Mind Your Biscuits. He may have actually been a dominant speed on a speed favoring surface and actually got about as good a set of conditions as he's going to get.

On another day, with someone better than Dalmore as the chaser, and an honest track, he could be less of a lock than the 3/5 he's going to be.
I don't disagree

I didn't articulate, but my comment about the 'dynamics' was more in reference to the track configuration being near the 1st-turn going 9F @ 'Toga, and how Mind Your Biscuits was able to take that wHITNEY-1st-turn within his comfort zone(in a weak field, where others did not have that luxury). I didn't learn a lot about MYB going 9 or 10, and as a default, he's still a 1M/7F in my book.

I agree with you about the pace dynamics. Diversify got to play catch-me-if-you-can, Dalmore is not a serious graded stakes horse and had to work on the 1st-turn. Tapwrit would be interesting if he were a price in a marathon race. Backyard Heaven has teased us, but realistically has yet to establish himself as a serious graded stakes horse either.

Diversify is the coolest horse in the world, but he's still a long shot to continue this brief 'dominance' of the division, and the Suburban was the time to have bet him.
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Old 08-08-2018, 06:24 PM   #32
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I don't disagree

I didn't articulate, but my comment about the 'dynamics' was more in reference to the track configuration being near the 1st-turn going 9F @ 'Toga, and how Mind Your Biscuits was able to take that wHITNEY-1st-turn within his comfort zone(in a weak field, where others did not have that luxury). I didn't learn a lot about MYB going 9 or 10, and as a default, he's still a 1M/7F in my book.

I agree with you about the pace dynamics. Diversify got to play catch-me-if-you-can, Dalmore is not a serious graded stakes horse and had to work on the 1st-turn. Tapwrit would be interesting if he were a price in a marathon race. Backyard Heaven has teased us, but realistically has yet to establish himself as a serious graded stakes horse either.

Diversify is the coolest horse in the world, but he's still a long shot to continue this brief 'dominance' of the division, and the Suburban was the time to have bet him.
The problem with modern racing is that Diversify would be perfect to come out to DMR and face Accelerate for the title of king of the handicap division. But you know, it's just IMPOSSIBLE to run a fit horse on 2 weeks rest.
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Old 08-09-2018, 11:26 AM   #33
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Old 08-09-2018, 11:56 AM   #34
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Really turned out to be a shit race.


Sure, we'll get a gaggle of excuses for the track condition, the long wait, and all that garbage, but the reality is that a front-runner got out of the gate and put this field to bed in 2 strides in a 9F race.


And behind him, a 1 turn sprint/closer put the rest away.


The entire rest of this field belongs in overnight stakes races at smaller venues...., but as our older male division sits, they are still supposed 'contenders'.



Not gonna lie, the old war horse/bridesmaid Hoppertunity is starting to look better by the day if West Coast and Accelerate aren't able to run come November.
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Old 08-09-2018, 01:35 PM   #35
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Not gonna lie, the old war horse/bridesmaid Hoppertunity is starting to look better by the day if West Coast and Accelerate aren't able to run come November.
I'm a big Hoppertunity fan, but I can't see him winning a race like the Classic. If the older division gets decimated one of the 3yos will develop enough to beat Hoppertunity.
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Old 08-09-2018, 10:39 PM   #36
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I'm a big Hoppertunity fan, but I can't see him winning a race like the Classic. If the older division gets decimated one of the 3yos will develop enough to beat Hoppertunity.

Good Magic is the 4/1 favorite at Wynn for the BC Classic
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