Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL**


View Poll Results: Do you bet Justify to win/single on Belmont day or do you spread?
Yes, he's a single and wins Triple Crown. 19 22.89%
No, I'm gonna use him but spread 28 33.73%
Toss 33 39.76%
Doesn't run 3 3.61%
Voters: 83. This poll is closed

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 05-22-2018, 09:21 AM   #46
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 2,945
Rep Power: 20 GMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99 View Post
I play the exchange. Price is EVERYTHING. Repeat PRICE is EVERYTHING.

Justify is the most likely winner of the BELMONT, there is little debate in my mind about that. so what price are you willing to accept on him. 1-10, 1-5, 3-10.....what. It all comes down to Price.

Price. Price. Price.

Allan

thats the entire prism in which I bet, whether I have a rooting interest in the outcome.

I bet against Justify in the last two races, the value is there should he lose, but trust me I am rooting for the horse and connections.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2018, 10:22 AM   #47
dilanesp
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 4,528
Rep Power: 13 dilanesp is a jewel in the roughdilanesp is a jewel in the roughdilanesp is a jewel in the rough
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
thats the entire prism in which I bet, whether I have a rooting interest in the outcome.

I bet against Justify in the last two races, the value is there should he lose, but trust me I am rooting for the horse and connections.
The only TC attempt I rooted for was Funny Cide. I thought it would have been great if the horse who finally won the triple crown was a horse who the greedy and parasitic breeding industry couldn't get its hands on.

If I thought Winstar would race Justify for a couple of more years I would root for him. But I don't, so I won't.
dilanesp is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2018, 10:23 AM   #48
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 41,335
Rep Power: 64 cj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to allcj is a name known to all
Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
The only TC attempt I rooted for was Funny Cide. I thought it would have been great if the horse who finally won the triple crown was a horse who the greedy and parasitic breeding industry couldn't get its hands on.

If I thought Winstar would race Justify for a couple of more years I would root for him. But I don't, so I won't.
Yeah, there is zero chance he'll race a couple more years.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2018, 10:43 AM   #49
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 7,094
Rep Power: 23 jay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of light
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
thats the entire prism in which I bet, whether I have a rooting interest in the outcome.

I bet against Justify in the last two races, the value is there should he lose, but trust me I am rooting for the horse and connections.
Oaks Derby Double: $16.60

Susan Preakness Double: $6.60

A hundred on each gets you $2360.00, Justify had plenty of value. The value is there, finding it can be the hard part.
jay68802 is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2018, 11:34 AM   #50
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 2,945
Rep Power: 20 GMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Oaks Derby Double: $16.60

Susan Preakness Double: $6.60

A hundred on each gets you $2360.00, Justify had plenty of value. The value is there, finding it can be the hard part.
Well its kinda funny, and a long story, at some point I could elaborate more but....

For me I am having issues where I know certain horses are going to win and there is value in the plays, as you suggested, but I am so anti-favorite that I dont play it. Its a weakness of my game.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2018, 11:53 AM   #51
Mc990
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 283
Rep Power: 3 Mc990 is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Oaks Derby Double: $16.60

Susan Preakness Double: $6.60

A hundred on each gets you $2360.00, Justify had plenty of value. The value is there, finding it can be the hard part.
Those double combos were underlaid and they'd be underlaid if they ran the races again tomorrow. Let's try not to be too results oriented... I know it's difficult. If a horse is underlaid in the win pool, considering the takeout, there is a great chance that they'll be underlaid in the doubles, exactas, etc.

I've come to believe that to the majority of racing "experts", value means "big price"
Mc990 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2018, 11:58 AM   #52
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 2,945
Rep Power: 20 GMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura about
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990 View Post
Those double combos were underlaid and they'd be underlaid if they ran the races again tomorrow. Let's try not to be too results oriented... I know it's difficult. If a horse is underlaid in the win pool, considering the takeout, there is a great chance that they'll be underlaid in the doubles, exactas, etc.

I've come to believe that to the majority of racing "experts", value means "big price"
Isnt up to each individual handicapper to determine the underlay/overlay?

If one felt Justify was 1/5 to win the derby, and the oaks winner 2/1 then 16/1 would be a square price.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2018, 12:12 PM   #53
Mc990
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2015
Posts: 283
Rep Power: 3 Mc990 is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
Isnt up to each individual handicapper to determine the underlay/overlay?

If one felt Justify was 1/5 to win the derby, and the oaks winner 2/1 then 16/1 would be a square price.
Yes, that is true but at that point they'd both be value in the win pool as well and it shouldn't be implied that the value was in the double because it returned a high multiple of the investment.

The double payout was in line with the win pool payouts once you factor takeout.
Mc990 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2018, 02:06 PM   #54
MadVindication
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 236
Rep Power: 1 MadVindication will become famous soon enough
Quote:
Originally Posted by papillon View Post
.
TC or not, Justify will be gone by next Feb at the latest. These annual popularity contests are what is killing the sport. If you say, "meh," as opposed to letting yourself be manipulated by breeders into their marketing campaigns you are sneered at, because that is what this all is, a marketing campaign. Do you really think Bob Baffert really doesn't know that both Silver Charm and Real Quiet ran the Preakness a second faster than Justify, or that all of his Preakness winners but one ran it faster than Justify, when he says he's never had a horse run it as fast as Justify did?

You know the race that made me the happiest this week, the one that really is good for the sport? Soi Phet's win. Give me a 10 year old vet still cashing checks over some blink and he's gone, now horse, 3yo messiah.
Hype is hype. It's always a part of sports. I like watching horses compete passed age 3 too. I don't like looking at stakes competers pedigree and seeing a winner of three races then retired. I understand there are good reasons sometimes but it is disappointing.

Quote:
I have no doubt there will be a script for the Belmont, a gentleman's handshake as you say. I'm pretty sure that there was for the Preakness, except Good Magic was supposed to get 2nd, not 4th. Why this doesn't bother you, I don't understand.
I don't think there was a script for the Preakness. Just Ortiz's public strategy which proved the best shot at GM winning. It's obvious they weren't racing for second. I don't doubt that there's fixing in the industry at any level, actually entering a sacrifical "rabbit" is kind of like fixing to me. But that's not what Ortiz/Good Magic were doing, they competed honestly. The risk in that weather too --nothing about the race adds up that they were running to settle for second.

The shadey shit in the industry is suspicious class drops, like running unsound horses to trick naive people into claiming them by taking easy wins or just for easy wins. And of course the horses that end up in shit conditions/slaughtered. Getting retired to a wealthy breeding industry is a better alternative. So there's a probably unjustified bias against horses that eventually lose and it makes them less profitable and therefor maybe they don't pay for their upkeep. Not really the industry moguls to blame. In ways they have no choice but to retire them soon and to me that does indicate concern for the well-being of thoroughbreds and not just concern for money.

I'd like to be able to follow horses I see running the TC to later careers too but I'm not sure if it is best for them. There's no knowing, and I understand why you are cynical about forgotten champions -but they aren't the truly forgotten thoroughbreds. If they keep running and do well then become injured they still have breeding value. Because breeding animals for specific purpose always leaves them vulnerable to genetic conditions, it comes with the territory. If they keep running and do worse and worse what fate awaits them?

There's lots to love about the sport. I'm new to it and it's my first Triple Crown following, which I would enjoy seeing a Triple Crown winner with a horse like Justify, overcoming doubts about his history. He's got the great Canadian pedigree on one side.

Quote:
Bravazo has been the mystery for me, he's the only horse I really, really got wrong.
He's been inconsistent. I'm looking to see if he can keep his form like he has in the last two tough races. I think he will. But if he runs competitvely with Justify or by slim chance beats Justify will you think that Bravazo has improved or will you think Justify just isn't that great of a horse? My opinion would be the former.

Last edited by MadVindication; 05-22-2018 at 02:08 PM.
MadVindication is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2018, 02:44 PM   #55
jay68802
Registered User
 
jay68802's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 7,094
Rep Power: 23 jay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of lightjay68802 is a glorious beacon of light
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
Well its kinda funny, and a long story, at some point I could elaborate more but....

For me I am having issues where I know certain horses are going to win and there is value in the plays, as you suggested, but I am so anti-favorite that I dont play it. Its a weakness of my game.

Completely understand where you are coming from here. I am the same way a lot of the time. I was sold on Justify, lucky for me. I was also sold on Monomny Girl or what ever her name is, in the Oaks. I am not going to get into if it was a over or underlay, that is a decision that is already past.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mc990 View Post
Those double combos were underlaid and they'd be underlaid if they ran the races again tomorrow. Let's try not to be too results oriented... I know it's difficult. If a horse is underlaid in the win pool, considering the takeout, there is a great chance that they'll be underlaid in the doubles, exactas, etc.

I've come to believe that to the majority of racing "experts", value means "big price"
Big price's can be had, but in this situation were not going to be there. I thought the prices were fair, and that is just my opinion. The point is that after handicapping one race for 3 weeks, you know about where the odds were going to be. And if you were sold on Justify, you had to make your decision. Were you going to take 5/2 against 20 others, or try and find something else and get a better price. The way I went looks good now, but could have been questioned by others at the time the bet was placed. Got lucky, time for the next race.
jay68802 is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2018, 05:28 PM   #56
clicknow
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 835
Rep Power: 2 clicknow is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by papillon View Post
Smith repeatedly said the horse was tired. He didn't back pedal and change his story until later.
I dunno. I know Pace Advantage noted the heavy breathing afterwards, and that shows a certain level of fatigue. But he showed no signs of that in the race, ie. struggling to maintain his level of intensity. So his fatigue in that sense mght only have involved his muscles in the upper airway. He was not stumbling, drifting, or any of those things that show up when fatigue affects overall balance and coordination.

Looking at the video I posted of him walking back to the paddock (having compared it to his post parade where he was just rarin' to go) he still looked like a horse with some energy. He was not hanging his head, there was no head-bobbing, and all those really bad signs of fatigue and pain.

I may have to toss him from the win spot anyway though just based on value.
clicknow is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2018, 06:19 PM   #57
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 2,945
Rep Power: 20 GMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura aboutGMB@BP has a spectacular aura about
I think he did get a little bit tired.

3 weeks though for a 3yo should be enough time to recover.

More worried about an extra 2 furlongs.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-22-2018, 07:49 PM   #58
clicknow
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 835
Rep Power: 2 clicknow is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Justify had plenty of value. The value is there, finding it can be the hard part.
If accurately combined with other horses in either verticals or horizontals, yes....esp deeper exotics if you can find the 3rd or 4th horse.

For exacta or win bet, not so much.

Not everybody plays the same way.
clicknow is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-23-2018, 09:47 AM   #59
CincyHorseplayer
Registered User
 
CincyHorseplayer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Cincinnati,Ohio
Posts: 5,279
Rep Power: 19 CincyHorseplayer is a jewel in the roughCincyHorseplayer is a jewel in the roughCincyHorseplayer is a jewel in the roughCincyHorseplayer is a jewel in the rough
There are so many races with winners paying 3-1 or less and $10-20 exotic payoffs that to me it makes no sense to routinely indulge this or really only rarely at all. If I am on a fast track for older claimers in a short field and it looks like a wiffle ball HR I swing. With 3yo's going longer than usual in the mud=nope!
CincyHorseplayer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-23-2018, 12:20 PM   #60
clicknow
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 835
Rep Power: 2 clicknow is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream_Police View Post
and then come back with a saver with Bravazo, Audible and one other for .50.
Audible hasn't worked since the KY Derby.

So, I doubt he will be entered.

However, I sure would not play horse who hasn't had a work in almost 3 weeks to win The Belmont Stakes.

I am hoping Free Drop Billy runs. He seems to be doing quite well and may be ready to run a good one. If he runs I will probably be using him. Seems like he has enough Classiciity in his profile, his sire's BMS profile and his dam's BMS profile, though there are a coupla cylinders missing.

Last edited by clicknow; 05-23-2018 at 12:30 PM.
clicknow is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
How many U.S. tracks will be running full (8+ week) meetings in 2028?
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:53 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2018 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.