Bossert blames Z loss on schedule - I disagree

[Cardus]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

If Blame wasn't in the race, she wins by lengths.

Irrelevant, really.

If Victory Gallop wasn't in the Belmont Stakes, Real Quiet would have won the Triple Crown by open lengths.

This conjecture could go on all day.

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by Cardus

Irrelevant, really.

If Victory Gallop wasn't in the Belmont Stakes, Real Quiet would have won the Triple Crown by open lengths.

This conjecture could go on all day.

Yes, I agree. If the Queen had balls she'd be the King.

[JustRalph]

why is somebody still writing about this? Why are we discussing it.

The damn horse lost by a foot. She ran one of her biggest races. We can do a postmortem down to the DNA level if we want. She was almost good enough. She probably enhanced her reputation in such a loss.

Looking forward to the spring races. This is my favorite time of the year. Some Winter Racing is coming. There won't be 22 tracks a day to choose from. There will hopefully be some better races.

[Robert Fischer]

the schedule turned out to be an awesome preparation.

Her last-to-first style simply left her with too much to do given that Blame ran a peak effort with an easier trip. Her campaign in terms of preparation for the classic couldn't have been improved upon in my opinion.

If you look at the races vs. Rinterval(sp?)(Clement Hirsch), and the Switch race, she gave those lesser runners substantial advantages, and then ran them down late. With the distance being a submaximal 8.5 Furlongs, there wasn't a stamina issue for those types to deal with, giving Zenyatta a better challenge.

The races vs. Rinterval and Switch could have hardly been scripted as better preparatory workouts for the Classic.
In fact her final work was scripted almost exactly like the Rinterval race (only her work mate was actually better).

Blame is simply better than Rinterval and Switch, and considering he finished full of run, and got a cleaner trip with perhaps about a 5 length advantage, Zenyatta ran lights out. There is simply NOTHING to find fault with considering her strong run in the classic. If Blame doesn't run clean with a peak race(he also had an excellent preparatory campaign), Zenyatta wins.

The campaign sucked in terms of racing multiple times against the world's best horses on a variety of surfaces. It however turned out to go tremendously well in preparation.

[Cardus]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

why is somebody still writing about this? Why are we discussing it.

The damn horse lost by a foot. She ran one of her biggest races. We can do a postmortem down to the DNA level if we want. She was almost good enough. She probably enhanced her reputation in such a loss.

Looking forward to the spring races. This is my favorite time of the year. Some Winter Racing is coming. There won't be 22 tracks a day to choose from. There will hopefully be some better races.

Twenty-two is not enough?

[Zman179]

Originally Posted by Valuist

If Haynesfield and Espoir City aren't in the race, Quality Road wins.

If Blame, Zenyatta, Fly Down, Lookin At Lucky, Paddy O'Prado, Etched, Musket Man, First Dude, Pleasant Prince, Espoir City and Haynesfield aren't in the race, Quality Road wins.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by Zman179

If Blame, Zenyatta, Fly Down, Lookin At Lucky, Paddy O'Prado, Etched, Musket Man, First Dude, Pleasant Prince, Espoir City and Haynesfield aren't in the race, Quality Road wins.

And if Zenyatta, Fly Down, Lookin at Lucky, Paddy O Prado (brilliant decision by the connections to race on dirt), Musket Man and Pleasant Prince ARE in the race, and the other speedballs aren't, they are running for second.

I have no rooting interest for Quality Road. I bet against him in the race because the pace scenario was stacked against him. Different race dynamics, and all those a$$ dragging closers would never catch him.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

the schedule turned out to be an awesome preparation.

Her last-to-first style simply left her with too much to do given that Blame ran a peak effort with an easier trip. Her campaign in terms of preparation for the classic couldn't have been improved upon in my opinion.

Buzzer...wrong.

[matthewsiv]

One more stride and she wins.

I think that she ran a great race and was unlucky not to get there.


One he'll of a filly, who should be Horse Of The Year and the the century be it that it is only ten years old.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Originally Posted by cj

Here is what I think. She had the perfect pace scenario, a decent trip, and came up a little short. If they ran this race 10 times, I'm not sure she wins more than once or twice. Just about any other pace scenario and she in not beating Blame. With similar, maybe she nips him once or twice.

I'm 100% sure if you offered 9-1 or pretty sure 4-1 on her in a similar situation that you would have the smartest horseplayers/gamblers/people in the world bringing almost an unlimited supply of suitcases full of cash to wager on her.

[cj]

Originally Posted by InsideThePylons-MW

I'm 100% sure if you offered 9-1 or pretty sure 4-1 on her in a similar situation that you would have the smartest horseplayers/gamblers/people in the world bringing almost an unlimited supply of suitcases full of cash to wager on her.

I'd take my chances since I happen to think I'm one of that group.

[098poi]

Originally Posted by cj

Here is what I think. She had the perfect pace scenario, a decent trip, and came up a little short. If they ran this race 10 times, I'm not sure she wins more than once or twice. Just about any other pace scenario and she in not beating Blame. With similar, maybe she nips him once or twice.

I think it would be more like 6 Blame / 4 Zenyatta. If we're going just based on this race they had effectively the same final times and speed ratings. Z's running style is a minus which I think would account for more losses. Some horses can run fast but have a knack for having "trouble" trips. Z has a way of staying out of it. Who knows?

[keithw84]

Originally Posted by The_Knight_Sky

In 2008, they had the chance to take on Curlin in the Breeders' Cup Classic, in her backyard over a synthetic track that Curlin obviously didn't care for, but passed before running the Ladies' Classic.

Last year, they raced her just five times, four times against her own sex in California before trying the Classic and prevailing.

While becoming the first female to win the Classic, she beat the boys only once, something Rachel Alexandra did three times in 2009.

I can give them a pass for 2008. While hindsight is 20/20, was there a strong reason to try her against the boys at the time? There is not much of a precedent for running females in the classic (What other females have run there recently other than Azeri?) so it made since to go for locking up divisional honors against her sex.

In 2009, though, they took a step backwards. Who knows? If Rachel hadn't beaten the boys, maybe they wouldn't have tried the boys either. Pure speculation, but all the attention Rachel got had to have influenced the Mosses a little.

From mid-2009 on, the campaign was just too vanilla, and their HOY hopes hinged too heavily on no one else standing out. If QR or Blame had run more and picked up a couple more wins early on, or if Lookin at Lucky would've done better in the races he lost under Gomez, any of them could've made a good case for HOY even if Zenyatta had WON the classic.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by cj

Buzzer...wrong.

How did your figures come back for the race? The pace was certainly strong it would seem.

[cj]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

How did your figures come back for the race? The pace was certainly strong it would seem.

125-110