Your biggest handicapping "mistakes"

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by mountainman

My thinking on biases-pertaining to both path and/or running style- has evolved some over just the last couple of seasons. And in ways I never expected.

So have mine. I think the impact is a very individual horse thing and some of the intuitive common sense beliefs are wrong.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Biases are tougher to determine these days because because there's a more even split between dirt and turf (and now even synth) giving you smaller samples to determine what was going on. Adding to the confusion is that dirt surfaces seem to change more often during the day now than long ago (especially before major stakes) due to inconsistent track maintenance, water addition and evaporation, and surface composition. It's often a guessing game unless it's so strong everyone can see it. And if everyone can see it, the value is diminished.

One thing I did notice at Santa Anita back in the day, on a day with dry track and no rain that day, they would water and re-harrow the track after the 4th race, only that one time during the card. You could often see a difference between races 1-4 and 5-9. Often I changed my late double selections biased on what I saw in races 5 & 6. I quickly changed that method when I threw out winners too many times and just started adding combinations. That of course lowered profits on winning tickets, but I cashed more to make up for it.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by mountainman

My thinking on biases-pertaining to both path and/or running style- has evolved some over just the last couple of seasons. And in ways I never expected.

Nothing is worse that a path bias, you never know if a jockey is aware of it or
will get in the right spot.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

One thing I did notice at Santa Anita back in the day, on a day with dry track and no rain that day, they would water and re-harrow the track after the 4th race, only that one time during the card. You could often see a difference between races 1-4 and 5-9.

I guess if you are at the track every day and take notes of what's going on you might be able to find some reliable patterns, but it's still very tricky because the sun, temperature, wind and maintenance varies and all those things impact the moisture content and depth.

[wiretowire68]

the day I got married.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by ultracapper

The tracks are no longer souped up to the degree they used to be. Bottom level claimer running 1:08 and change or 14 and change isn't nearly as common as it was 10 years ago. I think they came to the conclusion that crazy times weren't as appealing to the fans as they thought they were, Frankly, they weren't attractive to the casual fan that didn't appreciate them anyway. Anyway, a fairer track will always be preferred by handicappers.

This is a not-minor point. I don't know that they SHOULD be souped up, but regardless of that, you used to see a lot more wire-to-wire juiced-up types than today. Maybe it's good that there's less of that; but the game hasn't gotten easier to beat because of the way the betting landscape has changed.

But if you watch the average card of claimers 20 years ago and then today, there are a lot more slow-paced races, every jockey trying to be patient and wait. If you handicap these races like you did 20 years ago, you're going to get destroyed. It's a tendency I have to fight and actually keeps me from ever seriously wagering again. If my brain doesn't get me, the CAWs will.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by Inner Dirt

One thing I did notice at Santa Anita back in the day, on a day with dry track and no rain that day, they would water and re-harrow the track after the 4th race, only that one time during the card. You could often see a difference between races 1-4 and 5-9.

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I guess if you are at the track every day and take notes of what's going on you might be able to find some reliable patterns, but it's still very tricky because the sun, temperature, wind and maintenance varies and all those things impact the moisture content and depth.

That area of SoCal can have identical weather for weeks at a time day in and day out. Even humidity was constant, Santa Anita also rarely got any wind.

[Inner Dirt]

Originally Posted by castaway01

This is a not-minor point. I don't know that they SHOULD be souped up, but regardless of that, you used to see a lot more wire-to-wire juiced-up types than today. Maybe it's good that there's less of that; but the game hasn't gotten easier to beat because of the way the betting landscape has changed.

But if you watch the average card of claimers 20 years ago and then today, there are a lot more slow-paced races, every jockey trying to be patient and wait. If you handicap these races like you did 20 years ago, you're going to get destroyed. It's a tendency I have to fight and actually keeps me from ever seriously wagering again. If my brain doesn't get me, the CAWs will.

If my memory serves me correctly and no guarantee it does, back in the day in SoCal it seemed the track would play faster on days with big high dollar races than not, like they were hoping to get a track record set to get some added press. We are talking pre internet.

[capitalman]

Originally Posted by maddog42

My favorite play in all of racing is (like most of us) is early speed. I cash a lot of longshots with it, and have terrible losing streaks. And obviously you can't bet them all. Twice this past year 2023, I talked myself off of early speed longshots because of these long losing streaks with it. I know that is part of the game and "you can't win them all" and all that stuff. But it has cost me 2 scores in pick 5's. 15k and 28k. With either of those 2 hits and I have a winning year. My focus has been refining my method....I'm gonna go over the last six months and see if I can improve.

What do you use to determine early speed? I find the TimeformUS pace ratings in DRF pps to be great.

Saturday I almost made a huge mistake, but got bailed out by the next race: I noticed that the #9 horse in Tampa's 1st was the main speed from the DRF/TimeformUS pace ratings. However, I couldn't imagine the horse winning so I boxed it in the exacta with the horse I liked. My horse runs poorly and the 9 wins easily at 37/1. I was pretty down that I didn't put anything on the winner to win. Fortunately, I only liked the 2 favorites in the 2nd & threw a 4 combination DD in with my horse, & the 9 in the 1st with the 2 horses in the 2nd. The better odds horse of the 2 horses wins the 2nd and the DD pays $592.20 for $2. I went from the outhouse to the penthouse.