Stock Market Prediction

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Check's in the mail....Oh...and a 15 day lockdown, nationwide...

I wonder for how long I can keep saying that to my mortgage company...

[PaceAdvantage]

The markets will tell all when this COVID-19 crisis is about to take a turn for the better...

[ultracapper]

AAPL will go below $1T market cap first thing tomorrow morning. Between AAPL and MSFT, they have lost more market cap over the past 3 weeks than the market cap of Google. No idea what it all means, but those are quite humbling figures, considering that Google is, what, the 4th largest market capitalized stock on the NYSE.

I've been 95% cash for about a month now. I have no idea what to do with it other than just watch right now.

[PaceAdvantage]

S&P futures open up lock limit down...currently halted from selling below 2174

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

S&P futures open up lock limit down...currently halted from selling below 2174

Combine your info with 3 Month Treasury at -0.03%, looks like the storm is upon us..

[lamboguy]

to me it looks like the S+P is headed towards 2000. i think that's the number for a good unsustainable bounce. when it does get there, i am going split up my buying, 1/2 gold mining stocks the other half MSFT. i am looking for mr. softie to get to $180 before the sell and i am going to keep the mining stocks for the long run figuring that the metals will go opposite the broad market.

[lamboguy]

all the countries that produce gold are probably going to shut down the mines due to the corona. they have already closed up Argentina.

my guess is that the existing gold and silver are going to move up in price now due to shortage of product.

[lamboguy]

the thing about gold is that there really isn't to much industrial use for it outside of jewelry and a few other small industries.

down the road i am seriously worried about the artificial intelligence that could act like an alchemist to produce man made gold just like what has happened with diamonds. that might be 10 years away though and its a question how much its going to cost to develop the process because gold looks like the safe place to be right now. on that note, there really is no such thing as a "safe place" in anything that has to do with tradeable markets.

[PaceAdvantage]

Futures gathering their sea legs...up to 2205

[PaceAdvantage]

Japan's Nikkei closed up 2% Monday...they say because Olympics might be postponed instead of cancelled...still...up is up.

[lamboguy]

https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-03-2...-COVID-19.html

[lamboguy]

with all this money the government is going to dole out and flood the streets with liquidity, its almost impossible not to get the markets up. they are not only going to give money to the middle class, they are gonna give money to people that are broke.

my stock pick is going to be Disney as one of the biggest company's to benefit from the helicopter money. they will get more involved in the streaming business like netflix, and they will get some of these people that are completely broke that never dreamed of making it to a theme park that will be taking their families to see mickey mouse.

of course this will only be a bounce that i have no idea how long will last. the one thing i know is that the easy money to make going short is getting tougher.

right now they got people scared shit less to walk out of the house, so of course the bounce may be held up until the numbers on this virus get better. they will at some point. we are very close to my numbers of the S+P bounce. i got it somewhere between 1970-2150. as i type the S+P is still over 2200.

[PaceAdvantage]

Only 40 points away from the 1st trading halt of the day...

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

the thing about gold is that there really isn't to much industrial use for it outside of jewelry and a few other small industries.

down the road i am seriously worried about the artificial intelligence that could act like an alchemist to produce man made gold just like what has happened with diamonds. that might be 10 years away though and its a question how much its going to cost to develop the process because gold looks like the safe place to be right now. on that note, there really is no such thing as a "safe place" in anything that has to do with tradeable markets.

I'm not a chemist, and am leaning hard on knowledge learned in introductory science courses I took almost 40 years ago, but diamonds are an allotrope of carbon, just as graphite is. Both are pure carbon, but the carbon atoms are bonded together differently to produce the allotrope. Chemists have found ways to reproduce allotropes in laboratory environments. The big one over the past century has been Uranium235.

Gold, on the other hand is a basic atomic element, just as carbon is. I'm not certain chemists have been able to reproduce basic elements in a lab environment yet. Basically what you're anticipating is the millennium old alchemists challenge of turning iron into gold. That would be converting one atomic element to another. I don't think it has been done yet. Diamonds are a derivative of carbon, gold is a pure atomic element.

Gold has never, in the 7500 years of humans hoarding it, had industrial value. It has, for the most part, been ornamental, and a depository of wealth. I don't see that changing anytime soon, nor do I see it losing overall value either. It is VERY, VERY pleasing to the eye, and as long as humans continue to place value on beauty, gold will retain it's relative value in civilized humanity.

[ultracapper]

Another way to put it is, chemists can reproduce diamonds and graphite in a lab environment, but I don't think they are able to reproduce the carbon itself in the lab. They can make the diamonds, but they need the basic carbon to do it. Run out of carbon, you run out of diamonds.