BC Juvenile Fillies

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

I think he’s very mediocre. I’m sure he was well regarded...big purchase price, named like they thought he was special but his on track performances have not been much.

Maybe lasix will help but he will need it

I didn't look up the stats but Union Rags doesn't seem to be holding up as an elite stallion in terms of racetrack performance. Maybe his sales stats are still good, but not sure Lane's End (given their recent track record) will be hanging on for much longer at this rate.

Spielberg is one step away from going to some trainer in the midwest. Baffert has been dropping hints for the past couple of months.

Baffert pulled him out of the BC Juvenile to run in a maiden. Although a solid Beyer for CA 2yos (not saying much) he only won by a neck (3rd place was 8 lengths back).

Despite the decent number, Baffert didn't sit on him until the Los Alamitos Futurity. Instead he rather oddly wheeled back in this minor stakes, cutting back in distance from two-turns to one-turn in the process. With the exception of Mastery (who didn't last anyways) Baffert usually uses that race for his B-team horses.

Not sure where he goes from here. Baffert might keep him around so he has a horse for the El Camino Real Derby on the Tapeta (if Golden Gate ever opens again) and the Sunland Park Derby.

[classhandicapper]

IMO, there's not even a debate about whether Spielberg is a top 2yo (at least so far). Baffert is handling him the way he should be. He picked up a few checks in CA stakes when he saw how weak the competition was and is now running him in the weakest spots he can find. He has earned around 140k with this horse!!! To me, that that was masterful handling.

My original point was that if he could run an 85 Beyer in his maiden win and Princess Noor was toying with him in workouts, she had to be better than her upper 70s Beyer figures.

She ran an 85 in the Juvenile Fillies after chasing much better horses than either Spielberg or the very weak CA fillies she was beating. So imo she proved she was clearly better than an upper 70s horse.

The next question is more ambiguous.

Is she actually the special horse Baffert claimed that's going to keep moving forward towards the top of the division or is she simply a slower 2nd tier horse that looked great in the mornings and against tomato cans?

I think that jury is still out.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Baffert is handling him the way he should be. He picked up a few checks in CA stakes when he saw how weak the competition was and is now running him in the weakest spots he can find. He has earned around 140k with this horse!!! To me, that that was masterful handling.

I find it rather inept handling. Running a maiden in a stakes race, no matter what the level of competition, is one of the worst things you can do to obstruct a horse's progression. And despite picking up minor awards in the short-term, Baffert and his owners (who forked out 7 figures for the colt) are now reaping what they've sown. Whereas Baffert is quoted as anticipating a run in the BC Juvenile, instead the horse shows up in a maiden race and can barely get the job done.

When horses start to tail off or doesn't perform to his expectations, that's when Baffert is at his worse. Instead of showing patience, he starts campaigning the horse like its expendable (see Officer after he lost the BC at odds-on). There was no reason to cutback the horse especially on short rest. The horse's progression was already on a shaky foundation.

My original point was that if he could run an 85 Beyer in his maiden win and Princess Noor was toying with him in workouts, she had to be better than her upper 70s Beyer figures.

I think you're putting too much stock into a team workout as an actual race situation. That work was almost certainly choreographed to a tee with the focus being on preparing Princess Noor for the BC, not Spielberg and his maiden special weight. The very fact that he was chosen as her workmate tells you the horse's status in the barn.

She ran an 85 in the Juvenile Fillies after chasing much better horses than either Spielberg or the very weak CA fillies she was beating. So imo she proved she was clearly better than an upper 70s horse.

Personally, I think using speed figures from also-ran performances as a measure of a horse's talent level is a risky proposition. There cannot be much confidence in saying a horse's best race was when it ran up the track.

Is she actually the special horse Baffert claimed that's going to keep moving forward towards the top of the division or is she simply a slower 2nd tier horse that looked great in the mornings and against tomato cans?

I think that jury is still out.

Didn't the BC Juvenile Fillies spell it out enough? She did not move forward in that race. Unless the 4 or 5 in front of her at Keeneland fade away, she can't reach the top anytime soon. And now she actually has some competition to contend with at home (Astute).

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Is she actually the special horse Baffert claimed that's going to keep moving forward towards the top of the division or is she simply a slower 2nd tier horse that looked great in the mornings and against tomato cans?

I think that jury is still out.

I'd argue the jury is not out. She ran better, but didn't show anything that would make me think she a special horse. That isn't Baffert's MO. When they don't run well in the big spot, that tells the story for me.

[classhandicapper]

I find it rather inept handling. Running a maiden in a stakes race, no matter what the level of competition, is one of the worst things you can do to obstruct a horse's progression.

If you want to make generalizations I'd agree with you, but those stakes horses were so weak he hit the board twice and got a nice slice of a good purse. He also retained his maiden status for an easy cash later. You can just as easily draw into a tough maiden race and finish 3rd and get less money. Had he gotten buried in those stakes fields, it would have been a different story. THAT's a bad idea. But picking up a check in those races did nothing to hurt that horse's development. He's simply not very good at this stage, but he's got around 140k in the bank which is amazing for that limited talent.

I think you're putting too much stock into a team workout as an actual race situation. That work was almost certainly choreographed to a tee with the focus being on preparing Princess Noor for the BC, not Spielberg and his maiden special weight. The very fact that he was chosen as her workmate tells you the horse's status in the barn.

In company works are always choreographed, but trainers teach horses and learn about where they fit from them. They worked easily together as a team and the moment they were both asked, she dusted him. It was pretty obvious which one was better. You don't know by how much or what kind of figure it will translate into under race conditions, but I sure knew which one I'd bet if they raced.

Personally, I think using speed figures from also-ran performances as a measure of a horse's talent level is a risky proposition. There cannot be much confidence in saying a horse's best race was when it ran up the track.

She was in contention until the top of stretch chasing a fast high quality horse that went on to run a a good figure. If anything, that's screaming that if she was in a spot more suitable for her current ability, she would have run faster than an 85.

When horses get totally trounced because they are wildly overmatched, that's when figures start losing their usefulness because once a horse is outrun by much superior horses or is emptied chasing them they often just totally fall apart. Her performance was very clean and imo pretty easy to evaluate.

Didn't the BC Juvenile Fillies spell it out enough?

It spelled out where she is now and/or how she ran that day.

The question I am asking is does she have the talent to get a lot better over time. Lesser trainers heap huge praise on horses all the time and are way wrong. Baffert "sells" his horses, but he rarely goes over the top. He must see something he likes a lot about her and was probably disappointed.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

I'd argue the jury is not out. She ran better, but didn't show anything that would make me think she a special horse. That isn't Baffert's MO. When they don't run well in the big spot, that tells the story for me.

I think we all agree where she is now.

But imo there's a difference between a random Baffert horse and one that Baffert and CA clockers were all raving about that looked so fast and talented in the sales they paid a fortune for her.

IMO, whatever the probability is of some horse jumping up near the top of the division from here, imo it's higher with this one. I can show you other Baffert horses that made huge jumps later than their 4th start that he didn't even rave about. Arrogate was one he did rave about from the start that jumped over 15 points at 3 in the Travers.

[Dahoss9698]

It’ll be fun to come back to this thread in a few months

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

It’ll be fun to come back to this thread in a few months

I don't see why. I bet against her and cashed.

I think there's very broad agreement on how well she ran in the BC Juvenile. She ran a 2nd tier race in what appears to be a very good group of 2yo fillies.

Baffert is a very smart guy. He always talks positively about his horses, but I think I've only heard him really gush over a few horses. One was American Pharoah. One was Arrogate. One was this filly. So he's either wrong or she's going to get a lot better. I'm simply not writing her off yet, but he could easily be wrong.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think there's very broad agreement on how well she ran in the BC Juvenile. She ran a 2nd tier race in what appears to be a very good group of 2yo fillies.

I'm not seeing how Princess Noor even remotely ran a decent race in the BC. It's not like she simply got beat on the square.

She literally had her head ripped off at the 3/8s pole getting no closer than the NY filly's hip and was already floundering under the whip 2 lengths back at the 1/4 pole. Couldn't run in a straight line the rest of the way home drifting out and then lugging in while impeding both the KY fillies (who are probably the best bets out of that race going forward...in two turn races anyways).

It was all the jock could do to keep her together til they reached the wire. No way that race helped her move forward even with the rosiest of glasses. The wise move is to wait for 2021, but Baffert's chronic ego trip might get the better of him if he has nothing else for the Starlet.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Arrogate was one

Arrogate and Princess Noor make for a great contrasting example.

Both are examples of how with certain trainers, you must respect the possibility that a horse can leap-frog speed and class levels.

the biggest difference is the 'odds'.
Arrogate is 11?/1 and maybe 7th? or so choice in a big field.
Princess Noor is what, 8/5? 2/1? in a moderate field.

That's the significant part. You can go into interesting things like narrative, or that Arrogate's MSW, Alw race titles were less embellishing than whatever stakes boosted Princess Noor's reputation... you can go into the heavy money on Princess Noor's previous starts, and the starpower and the complete narrative, and several other minor models of relation... but the significant models are pretty much captured in: Leap-Frog via talent/trainer? ---> Price??

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Arrogate and Princess Noor make for a great contrasting example.

Both are examples of how with certain trainers, you must respect the possibility that a horse can leap-frog speed and class levels.

the biggest difference is the 'odds'.
Arrogate is 11?/1 and maybe 7th? or so choice in a big field.
Princess Noor is what, 8/5? 2/1? in a moderate field.

That's the significant part. You can go into interesting things like narrative, or that Arrogate's MSW, Alw race titles were less embellishing than whatever stakes boosted Princess Noor's reputation... you can go into the heavy money on Princess Noor's previous starts, and the starpower and the complete narrative, and several other minor models of relation... but the significant models are pretty much captured in: Leap-Frog via talent/trainer? ---> Price??

Princess Noor was hardly in a moderate field. She was in one of the stronger runnings of the BC Juvenile Fillies in years. She went into the race as the sixth fastest of seven and came out that way. I don't know of anyone I respect that considered her even a player. Most considered her as bad a favorite as you will see in a race.

As for Arrogate, the Travers field was deep, and there were plenty of accomplished horses in it, but none were even remotely fast at that point in their careers. Arrogate had around a 103 Beyer ( albeit in a three horse field ) at Del Mar, which pretty much qualified him as being as fast as anyone, if not faster. I didn't like him, and you could hardly predict he would explode the way he did, but he was far more competitive on paper than the laughably over her head Princess Noor. That filly of Mandella's that won last weekend at Del Mar will swat her away like a gnat if and when they meet.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I don't see why. I bet against her and cashed.

I think there's very broad agreement on how well she ran in the BC Juvenile. She ran a 2nd tier race in what appears to be a very good group of 2yo fillies.

Baffert is a very smart guy. He always talks positively about his horses, but I think I've only heard him really gush over a few horses. One was American Pharoah. One was Arrogate. One was this filly. So he's either wrong or she's going to get a lot better. I'm simply not writing her off yet, but he could easily be wrong.

I’m glad you cashed, although 90% of your posts in this thread are about Princess Noor and how good Baffert thinks she is and how you think (both before AND after the BC) she has more in the tank. You even left out part of your lone post about Vequest, which seemed odd when i read it, but I digress.

Normally you are kind of vague when expressing an opinion on races (like the Juvy Fillies) or horses not named Tacitus. But you seem convinced Princess Noor is something the rest of us don’t see....because Baffert says so.

Good luck with that.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

I’m glad you cashed, although 90% of your posts in this thread are about Princess Noor and how good Baffert thinks she is and how you think (both before AND after the BC) she has more in the tank. You even left out part of your lone post about Vequest, which seemed odd when i read it, but I digress.

Normally you are kind of vague when expressing an opinion on races (like the Juvy Fillies) or horses not named Tacitus. But you seem convinced Princess Noor is something the rest of us don’t see....because Baffert says so.

Good luck with that.

So I don't have much to learn from him?

I'm so disillusioned.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Dahoss9698

But you seem convinced Princess Noor is something the rest of us don’t see....because Baffert says so.

Good luck with that.

I'm not convinced of anything after 4 starts. That's the point I've been making.

What I know is I rarely find good bets when my insights are the same as all the wise guys on Twitter, on social media, and on TV. I like it better when I find a situation where there's group think because everyone is using similar figures, has similar ideas, and thinks the same things, but I have reason to think otherwise.

I have thought and continue to think there's better chance she jumps up than the typical wise guy thinks even though I bet against her last time. That's why I am talking about her.

I don't think there will be value betting against her anymore for the same reason there was no value betting on Tacitus off his "trips". Everyone thought he was better than he looked, but there were reasons to think the consensus might be wrong. This is the flip side. Everyone is 100% convinced she's been exposed as a fraud. I'm not yet.

[Dahoss9698]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm not convinced of anything after 4 starts. That's the point I've been making.

What I know is I rarely find good bets when my insights are the same as all the wise guys on Twitter, on social media, and on TV. I like it better when I find a situation where there's group think because everyone is using similar figures, has similar ideas, and thinks the same things, but I have reason to think otherwise.

I have thought and continue to think there's better chance she jumps up than the typical wise guy thinks even though I bet against her last time. That's why I am talking about her.

I don't think there will be value betting against her anymore for the same reason there was no value betting on Tacitus off his "trips". Everyone thought he was better than he looked, but there were reasons to think the consensus might be wrong. This is the flip side. Everyone is 100% convinced she's been exposed as a fraud. I'm not yet.

Let’s say she does jump up....it’s not like she will be a price if she does, right?

You admit you have a hard time finding bets. What would possibly make her something you’d want to bet going forward? Assuming she runs the table (unlikely) out west what kind of a price would she be in the KY Oaks?

Isn’t the goal to find horses whose form is muddied up by situations where they ran better than it looks? When she has faced bad fields she’s looked good, while running slow. When she faced a good field she got exposed. Her workmate that everyone used as a barometer isn’t very good.