*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[NorCalGreg]

This was a waste of a dollar for the data file. Wonder if I can return it for a different track?



Think I'll take a flyer and box the 3 selections in races - and

[NorCalGreg]

.
.
.
.
.

[NorCalGreg]

Looks like all chalk all day, once again for DEL MAR. I'm just gonna play BEST-FIVE'S top pick over the next two in exactas and see what happens

[NorCalGreg]

I swear...there is some force that oversees all wagers, any type of gambling. You EVER presume to know something--the opposite will happen. What did I predict this morning? We'll be eating chalk all day @ DelMar.

I figured I'd be slick and just bet the top horse over the next two in exactas--sit back and watch my profits roll in. All I saw was my $28.00 roll away

[NorCalGreg]

Many times...like most of you---after the races I go over the card, see what the winners looked like, maybe why the horse I was almost positive would be there--didn't hit the board, etc.

As much studying as I've done....I should have a much higher strike rate and ROI. The area of horse racing and wagering, and everything that is part of this mutual battle that I find fascinating--is the maneuvering, chicanery, and other tactics a horse's connections use, to convince bettors to look elsewhere.

Some are blatant in their "tactics--and honestly use that horse for an ATM machine 2-3 times a year. Unusual distance switches, ridiculous class raises, a speedball that suddenly can't get out of his own way, the list of "tricks" is endless.

There is absolutely nothing illegal being done here--it's just a part of the game, and has been for 100+ years. Finding these "betting coups" is the fun part.

To finally get to the point of all this:

I used to believe that one of the tip-offs of trainer maneuvering was bring his horse back right away. I had it in my head that this trainer/owner was up to something...this was all part of the plan.

The horse was coming back quickly because he may be razor sharp right now, and his connections want to take advantage of his conditioning. Why else would the horse come back in 6 days? Or 8,9,10 days?

There is a chance he's being prepped for his next race--and today is simply a public workout.

Using Platinum, with it's ability to sort 1st to last, in 20+ categories (I couldn't fit them all here)...I learned what was actually going on, in most cases: As a group these horses back quickly, were a pretty sorry bunch. In the lower purse races...many horses don't earn their feed, stable, vet, etc bills .

Their connections are simply running their horses to collect what meager checks they can, as often as they can.

I even checked out Del Mar yesterday. The 14 horses back the quickest--including 4 back in less than 10 days, performed poorly. None were "razor sharp"-although one ran 2nd as a 2-1 ML fav.

This holds true at every track I've checked. One situation were this could be a source of profit--is a well-spotted horse that just won his last race. There's obviously no chicanery here--connections really DO have a sharp horse and want another winner's check.

Keep an eye out for any of these "hurry back" horses that take a 30 day rest--but show a couple works in between. They very well could be "live" next out.

-NCG

[green80]

keep in mind that a trainer cannot just run a horse whenever he wants to, he has to wait until the race he wants comes back up in the condition book. For example if you have a maiden filly that likes to run short on the turf, you have to wait until that race comes up, it may be a week or a month depending on that type race. Then you may need to run for 7500 claiming and all they have is a 15000 written.


The next problem, depending on the track, is having too many horses or not enough horses to make the race go. Too many entries and if you just ran you won't get in, not enough entries and the race doesn't go.


So in short, what may look like unusual trainer moves could be just the trainer running the horse when he can get in a race, seem like there is never the race you need when you need it.


It would help some understand if they would get a condition book for the track you are playing ( on equibase) and just see what races were available for the horse you are following. May help some understand why the trainer run him in the race vs something else.

[NorCalGreg]

I'm sure you know of what you speak, Mike. There are no absolutes in this game, and I go by the stats. It's not a coincidence that horses coming back to the track--as a group, perform so poorly. You can't lay it off on the Racing Secretary or a lack of ideal race conditions...trainers don't take them a race at a time. At least the good ones don't....they have this current "campaign" planned out in advance. Go up and down the pp's---see it every day.

Anyway:

[NorCalGreg]

The "Top E-1/E-2" play found on Best-Five can be put you on some winners at certain tracks--others it isn't worth a damn. I noticed it happens to be killer at Parx.....well, maybe "Killer" is a reach, but if it works anywhere it's Parx, Belterra and a couple other mid-level tracks.

Here's today's E-1 E-2 selections for Parx:


2ND ... SS MINNOW 5-1
3RD ... JACK O LIAM 10-1
4TH ... FORMAN THE FOREMAN 9-1 (9 TO 1?? )
5TH ... ISOLATED 9/5
6TH .... STARSHIP REINA 7-5
6TH ... LA KEY 3-1

[NorCalGreg]

G'Luck




--NCG

[NorCalGreg]

I usually send out programs digitally via email link. Just zip 'em up, click a couple buttons and in a couple seconds the customer has his program. Ain't technology great?

One problem with that system--humans must oversee the process. I sent a zip file to a new customer recently--he received it fine--downloaded the file, opened it....and it was EMPTY. The one thing I have to do is make sure there is an actual zipped up file inside, and I wiffed on it.

I've done that once or twice in the past ...usually the customer is anxious to get to handicapping. They're usually a little miffed--understandable.

Here was the reply I got from "JackP" after notifying me of the empty file:

Greg,

"I just wanted to thank you for responding to my phone call so quickly and delivering the Platinum File. I downloaded the file and it works perfectly. It may take me a little practice to get the hang of it, but once I do I trust it will put me on to some big winners.

Once again thank you for your cooperation in this matter."
Kindly yours,

Jack P

Once you get away from Twitter, Facebook, etc...people are nice and very cordial on the internet. Thank you, Jack.

-Greg

**by the way....I don't have a "VIP" club--as I mentioned in an earlier post... no one would join

[stuball]

Well there goes my one chance to be a VIP.. you really had my hopes up there

Stuball

[NorCalGreg]

SARATOGA MON

5TH WICKED FREUD
6TH YUMMY BEAR 6-1
8TH WESTERLAND 12-1


PARX

1ST BETTY'S FAVORITE 6-1
8TH BELIEVE IN ANGELS 20-1


These are from the currently in-limbo SPEED DEMONS.
I noticed a few things and saw it's hit a couple nice
winners, including that $19 horse Royal-Something at Del
Mar yesterday. It's got a brief but adequate 7-item pace
fraction section...with Turn Times, % Early, Final
Fraction,etc.

Also is a "worksheet" with much more in the
way of points of call, X-Factor....2-4-6-8 furlong times,
the whole enchilada. They aren't raw figures, but adjusted for BL.
Anyway, I'll talk some more on this tomorrow--Good Luck all

-NCG

[NorCalGreg]

Those picks in the above post might appear to the untrained eye--
as some sh*tty picks.

Only the well-read, experienced horse player can see what I see:

They were good, solid picks that just didn't happen to win...or hit the board, or even get a call

I'll post up some more SPEED DEMON picks in a minute. This time they may all win. That sums up gambling in general, and horse betting in particular. There's some righteous karma at work.

Here's something you don't see everyday--if ever. A longshot paying exactly $100 to win.



Got this email from a gentleman from Jersey named Carmen, one of my favorite customers:
Yes he's a real person with a facebook page, etc. Here's the letter:


"Hi Greg, this is scary. I use your exotics and compare and circle the numbers on the four horizontal picks. I am hitting doubles and pick 3's like crazy. Playing Penn National tonight and just the double . Didn't play the exacta but that hit too. Don't know how the trainer software will improve things but if anyone can I know my man can. Thanks, Carmen"



What Carmen is doing is using EXOTIC BETS!---printing out the 4 PICK-9'S...circling horses on more than one sheet--and finding exotic plays. He does well because he does his homework. You can use the program in whatever manner you choose, but I've found this is the best way for pick-4's.

Pick 5's get expensive...and pick-6, forget about it. I've played pick-5's and 6's...but for very low amounts. It's more like playing the lottery to me.

more to follow....

[NorCalGreg]

Okay boys---as promised--solid picks from DelMar and Sara.

I put the Purple GTO in there because that was the baddest of the muscle cars--and seemed like that exact purple color was the most popular.

They don't make them like this one anymore.....

[NorCalGreg]

...and this happens to be the exact same car---on the street today. This may have been the one with the tachometer outside, built onto the scoop but very visible to the driver: