Trifecta key horse

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Though I am strictly a win bettor with occasional exacta or doubles I have been considering investigating trifectas for a long while. My purpose is to find a method or angle that would bring a very high in-the-money percentage for these trifecta keys while avoiding the race favorite in the keys.

I have thought of certain factors such as consistency, pace analysis etc.

Any ideas out there that offer a chance to select this high ITM horse?

Thanks in advance for any responses as it is greatly appreciated.

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

This is very elementary, but first find your vulnerable favorite. One approach is either Maiden Win or lifetime best beyer last. Hope for bounce or regression today. Then let the board help you. Find what looks to be the clear betting second choice. For .50 plays I'd try to beat that horse also. Play the field (minus any hapless horses) over the 2nd Choice with the favorite 3rd. Or keep the favorite out entirely and find the horses you like to pick up the pieces but seldom win.

Or you could apply same approach to .10 superfectas...

ALL / 2nd Choice / ALL / Odds On
ALL/ ALL / 2nd Choice /Odds On

No real handicapping here, other than spotting a bad favorite and some probability and a little luck.

Good Luck

[Viruss]

Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09

Though I am strictly a win bettor with occasional exacta or doubles I have been considering investigating trifectas for a long while. My purpose is to find a method or angle that would bring a very high in-the-money percentage for these trifecta keys while avoiding the race favorite in the keys.

I have thought of certain factors such as consistency, pace analysis etc.

Any ideas out there that offer a chance to select this high ITM horse?

Thanks in advance for any responses as it is greatly appreciated.

Have you considered the Trainer ITM stats yesterday I seen this

+46-90daysAway 8 25% 88% the horses odds were in the 20-1+ and finished 3rd making a $400+ Tri and $200+ $.10 super.

Earl J

[Robert Fischer]

Huge Overlay = Wow! Either I'm crazy, or the public is completely missing this horse! He's 9/1, and I think he's almost certain to contend for the win. Maybe he's a trip horse, maybe he's making a big enough step up in class, whatever the reason, this is a golden opportunity.

Long Shot Underneath = He's one of the longest shots on the board in a decent sized field, but he's just as likely as some of the top choices to finish 3rd or 4th. Maybe his 14 1-2-4 record reflects this, maybe he made a closing move against the grain last time, or maybe he figures to be lone speed today.



I incorporate a very strong heavy favorite in the same race by using a double key, which cuts down on ticket price. I incorporate a weaker favorite by simply using him in the 'group of contenders' along the ticket pyramid.



examples

Gulfstream r11 today Carry Back S. (Huge Overlay Key = BENEFACTOR 8/1 ml)

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= $18


Gulfstream r13 today Smile Sprint S. (Long Shot Underneath Key = VERY VERY STELLA 30/1 ml)
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=$8.70


*for entertainment only.

[Appy]

I readily admit knowing and understanding the intricacies of wagering is my greatest weakness. For that reason I very much appreciate posts like yours on this thread, Robert. Thanks.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Appy

I readily admit knowing and understanding the intricacies of wagering is my greatest weakness. For that reason I very much appreciate posts like yours on this thread, Robert. Thanks.

Thanks Appy

Trifecta $0.50 11/ 1 + 3 + 4 + 6 / 1 + 3 + 4 + 6 $6.00 $0.00
Trifecta $0.50 1 + 3 + 4 + 6 / 11 / 1 + 3 + 4 + 6 $6.00 $0.00
Trifecta $0.50 1 + 3 + 4 + 6 / 1 + 3 + 4 + 6 / 11 $6.00 $22.40
+$4.40
^This one didn't work out all that great. Benefactor (Huge Overlay Key) was 2nd public choice @ 5.10-1.
Probably better at passing on the bet.



Trifecta $0.50 2 + 3 + 4 + 8 / 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 8 / 7 $8.00 $67.70
Superfecta $0.10 2 + 3 + 4 + 8 / 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 8 / 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 8 / 7 $4.80 $0.00
+$54.90
This one worked out well. Very Very Stella (Longshot Underneath Key) was 134-1. Tri was not big, but the exacta (2-3) only paid $9.60!, so the 7 created a lot of value to get the Tri up to $67.70.
This is one that would have been nice to at least play another 50cents with the HEAVY chalk singled on top. Would have cost $2 more for the Tri, and doubled the payday, while at the same time ensuring that if the HEAVY chalk won, my payouts wouldn't deflate so much. <-- 'Emphasis' of heavy chalk is very important. Adapting your original (night before, morning) selections to the current tote odds and ideas you may have overlooked is very important.

I am far from easy street, and this game presents new challenges/problems every day.