Met Mile

[pandy]

Interesting Met Mile today. The two favorites will be Belmont-lover Flat Out and speedy, lightly-raced Cross Traffic. Both of these went nose to nose in a stirring stretch battle track/distance on April 27 and Flat Out wore down his younger rival on the wire in a gallant effort.

I don't like this type of prep for a big race like this. Flat Out is 7 years old and even though that race was not technically a career "top" for him, it is most likely a top for him now. That was his 2nd start off a break and third of the year, and since it was such a grueling race with a hot pace, I would expect him to regress here.

Cross Traffic is well bred and obviously a 4yo with ability. He made the step up from NW1 to the GR3 in last, set a hot pace and gave Flat Out a real battle. This is also his 4th start of the year but he had a bit longer rest before his last. But now he gets the rail again and this time there is more speed lined up and he is stepping up into a GR1 for the first time, and he is also a bounce candidate after improving to a new top both on pace and final figures.

So I think it makes sense to try and beat these two. I went for Mark Valeski. he is one for one at Belmont. He also ran a big race last start, a career top, but that was on March 30 and Larry Jones is very good with fresh stock. The works at Churchill are strong and he gets Rosie back while turning back and he has shown that he can finish strongly. Mark Valeski is also the top pick using my Pace Handicapping Longshots Pace Shape Method, which picked Oxbow in the Preakness.

Interesting race and an intriguing pace match up with several horses that have good early speed.

[PhantomOnTour]

Tough one to figure.

It's up to Fed Biz or Fort Loudon to keep Cross Traffic from getting away...in fact, I think Mike Smith will send Fed Biz pretty hard. He runs best when right on the lead.

I am using Sahara Sky as my top choice with a little Mark Valeski thrown in.
Never been a fan of MV but he's right there every time and has a decent middle move that may play well vs today's set up.
Sahara Sky will need some pace help, but this is the Met Mile, and the pace is always fast....wonder if he can sustain that rally for another furlong. Although he looks like a deep closer, he actually has pace figs that put him close enough after a 1/2m.
Tossing Cross Traffic completely today...too much too soon for him. If he hangs in there vs Gr1 foes at underlaid odds then more power to him and I lose my money.
Don't know what i'm going to do with Discreet Dancer, but as of now he's on the ticket:

ex: 3-7 w 2-3-6-7
ex: 6 w 3-7
win: 7

[pandy]

I picked it 3-6-7 and I will use Sahara Sky in exactas in case there's a pace meltdown. Sahara Sky hasn't proven that he can go past 7 furlongs but there's no reason why he shouldn't, especially in a one-turn mile which is similar to a 7 furlong race. Hopefully the track won't be speed favoring.

[BlueChip@DRF]

It looks like there is going to be some sort of pace no matter what. It should set up for Sahara Sky. It's a cool day in the metro area, so the track should play fair. Usually when it gets hot, like in the summer months, speed would hold better.

Hollendorfer, the owner AND trainer of Sahara Sky, flew 3000 miles for this one race and gets the hot rider Rosario. At ML of 6/1, it's worth a Win wager.

[Robert Fischer]

I think it's Cross Traffic's race to win or lose.

Last time he had both a new rider, and a decline in footwork. Maybe they are related and he will benefit from Velazquez back up, maybe he is going a little off-form.

[ManU918]

I'll be a donk and bet Fort Loudon.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by BlueChip@DRF

It looks like there is going to be some sort of pace no matter what. It should set up for Sahara Sky. It's a cool day in the metro area, so the track should play fair. Usually when it gets hot, like in the summer months, speed would hold better.

Hollendorfer, the owner AND trainer of Sahara Sky, flew 3000 miles for this one race and gets the hot rider Rosario. At ML of 6/1, it's worth a Win wager.

Horse just got off plane. Jerry must have been handling the horse himself. Fits but Not the type for me.

If you like his last race then you want to look at Discrete Dancer to Win. It's ready for NY. Never been out of money.

[thespaah]

I see Fed Biz jumping off the page.
Look at the works. Three impressive 6f at CD.
The connections made the effort to ship this one across the country and sent the regular rider ( Mike Smith) as well.
Baffert is a pretty sharp guy when it comes to finding spots where his horses have a shot at winning.
My concern is how contested the lead will be early on.
If this horse can get a lead and not be pressed past the half mile, it appears to me he has a shot.
Two things. One closers do not do all that well at Belmont in routes. PLus, the surface is drying out and I don't see the speed coming back to the field.
I could be way off here, but I am going to throw a few bucks at this one.
I am not a big fan of Cross Traffic. He got nailed by Flat Out after a big effort in the Westchester. I am thinking this horse may bounce.
I also like Discreet Dancer. 2 for 2 at today's distance. Won a Grade 2, two back. Was running down the front runners in a very fast Carter H'Cap last time out. I think the mile distance may suit this one well.

[Investorater]

Without knowing the final odds...... I'd say there is plenty of value among this field, according to my line.

Not betting any races today.

[MightBeSosa]

Larry Jones horses ran like they carried 200 lbs each.

[RXB]

Met = tough race. I will enjoy watching but not betting.

Now I have to wait and see if Cue The Moon will drift up enough in the late odds for me to bet the Acorn. I think she could have a big step forward today but I wasn't expecting her to be only 9/1 at 3MTP.

[VeryOldMan]

Originally Posted by RXB

Met = tough race. I will enjoy watching but not betting.

Amen. I look at the PPs and realize I would be the dead money. Will enjoy watching but I don't have a clue here. Can make an argument for almost everyone but Handsome Mike, and it would serve me right if he won

[iceknight]

Originally Posted by thespaah

I see Fed Biz jumping off the page.
Look at the works. Three impressive 6f at CD.
The connections made the effort to ship this one across the country and sent the regular rider ( Mike Smith) as well.
Baffert is a pretty sharp guy when it comes to finding spots where his horses have a shot at winning..

I actually have Fed Biz as one of the serious contenders (at decent odds) along with Mark Valeski as the other...

But the theories you have mentioned don't mean much trying to figure out this race, as this is a very prestigious grade I race/stallion reputation maker... so they will send top, regular jockeys as well as ship horses they think are in great form!.. Because, if those horses run bigger than expectations of punters and others.. the owners have a gold mine!

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally Posted by VeryOldMan

Amen. I look at the PPs and realize I would be the dead money. Will enjoy watching but I don't have a clue here. Can make an argument for almost everyone but Handsome Mike, and it would serve me right if he won

Oh thanks. Now you did it. Watch him blow away the field and light up the toteboard.

[iceknight]

Hey guys
I was out most of the day and did not follow the track... how is the track bias/speed playing?

Any remarks?