Early money

[DigitalDownsJoe]

I dont ever count on early or late money unless I know WHO is betting the money. Maybe I am naive, but I always thought that was funny that people watch the totes for big moves. IMO and my opinion alone, I think its ludicrous to bet on a horse because of shift one way or another early or late. I dont even pay it mind unless it effects the value of my bet. I look at the board for 3 things, value odds, amount in pools(i like to bet smaller tracks), and minutes to post!

It reminds of the movie back to school with Rodney Dangerfield...

Thornton Melon: Good... Hey! What's with the used books?
Jason Melon: Well, what's wrong with used books?
Thornton Melon: They've already been read!
Jason Melon: Yeah, and they already been UNDER-LINED, too. Get it?
Thornton Melon: That's the problem. The last guy who under-lined them, he could have been a maniac! Hey, get these guys some new books. Huh? Get some new books, will ya?

[BlueShoe]

Am very fond of early money and have commented on it in several earlier threads on the topic. To get my attention a runner needs to open at half or less of a good M/L and must have an out of line pool ratio. Example; opens at 2-1 from a M/L of 6-1. Has 2000 to win, 350 place, 150 show. This horse appears to have gotten a $1000 non public bet from somewhere. Like them to stay low during the early wagering and then gradually drift upward and the out of line pools fill in late. Often the wise guys will feed in the money gradually early and then stop a few minutes before postime. When the odds then drift upward late the public thinks that the horse is a stiff because of no late action, but the wise money has already been sent in early.

[Valuist]

We are looking at an example right now at Arlington. Race 7, horse 4, Games Begin 6-1 m/l is at 6-5 with 20 minutes to post. 12k in the win pool; over $4500 of it on Games Begin. GB is a 2nd timer who clipped heels in his only race. Comes from the solid barn of Hugh Robertson.

[Valuist]

Perfect trip and no excuse for Games Begin, who not only took early money but ended up as a big underlay at 2-1.

[Tom]

Hey, now that would be an idea, to see how serious these jerk are - to qualify, you can NEVER had used lasix. Put up or shut up.

[Ocala Mike]

Wrong thread, Tom?

By the way, lamboguy, the donuts ARE good at OBS, and the cookies are even better.

[raybo]

Very early money may be important depending on who the jockey is and the trainer also. If either is a crowd favorite you better qualify the horse on its own merits.

[arno]

Too many tracks have unrealistic morning lines.
Their morning lines have the favorite at 3/1 and 2nd choice at 7/2.

The 3/1 favorite opens up 9/5 and the 7/2 2nd choice opens at 7/5.
The 2nd choice wins and his odds move up at post time to 3/1 and pays $8.80.

Now was that early money showing or an unrealistic morning line?

Why not have the morning line fav at 7/5 and 2nd choice at 2/1 and horses with no chance morning lines at 30/1 not 12/1?

I have always thought early money was more successful in harness racing than the tbreds.

Agree or disagree?

[cj]

We all remember the times early money actually seems smart, but seem to forget those times the horse runs up the track. The latter, by the way, is the FAR greater occurrence.

[classhandicapper]

I don't pay much attention to the betting patterns except with FTs and layoffs, but I think early money is sometimes more meaningful than late money. Sometimes the late money is all the sucker money taking advantage of a supposed overlay that is actually dead on the board for a very good reason that's not clear. I know I've been in those shoes. lol

[thaskalos]

I don't pay too much attention to betting patterns either...and I could very easily be wrong...but it occurs to me that the most reliable betting pattern is the one where the horse's odds remain stable throughout the betting, while staying well below the level they should be at.

But even these horses don't win often enough...

Tough game...

[raybo]

Originally Posted by cj

We all remember the times early money actually seems smart, but seem to forget those times the horse runs up the track. The latter, by the way, is the FAR greater occurrence.

Agree!!

[The Bit]

I think there are certain situations and connections that early money means something on, but I also think you guys that are using the M/L as a judge are giving most M/L makers way too much credit.

I'd be more comfortable making my own line and than if I see some anamoly, if so I'd pay a bit more attention. I've had a conversations on Twitter lately with a certain morning line maker who admits to not making the best line possible because the favorites odds would be too low. He didn't give me a reason, but it would seem to hide the fact that the race may be unbettable or to not offend the other participants.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by The Bit

I think there are certain situations and connections that early money means something on, but I also think you guys that are using the M/L as a judge are giving most M/L makers way too much credit.

I'd be more comfortable making my own line and than if I see some anamoly, if so I'd pay a bit more attention. I've had a conversations on Twitter lately with a certain morning line maker who admits to not making the best line possible because the favorites odds would be too low. He didn't give me a reason, but it would seem to hide the fact that the race may be unbettable or to not offend the other participants.

Personally, I don't look at the M/L other than to get an idea of the rankings that the public might determine. The M/L odds themselves mean nothing to me. When I see the ranking of a particular horse change dramamtically, in the early betting, I might check the connections and the horse's last race or so to try to determine why that horse is getting bet heavier than others in the field. Usually the heavier early support is due to a crowd favorite jockey or trainer, or the horse is dropping dramatically in man-made class level, or the horse won easily in it's last race, etc..

Sometimes, however, none of those expected reasons applies, and further monitoring of the tote might be warranted. If the support stops suddenly that might be a flag of a singular entity placing the bet. If it continues to receive heavier than normal support, that could mean that other "tote watchers" have jumped on the band-wagon.

I believe that support in the last minute or so, more accurately measures the public's opinion, as a whole.

[pondman]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

the main thing i do is watch workouts, i have a network of friends in different places that are good at it and we share our notes. i have a guy that watches the 2yo in training sales and i watch works at different training centers in Ocala, i will also travel to a track to watch a special horse. that's why i try to stay away from past performances as much as i can.

+1 Everyone needs to read this! Aerobic condition can be found within works.