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10-01-2014, 12:41 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Omaha, Nebraska
Posts: 1,366
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Fort Erie race
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10-01-2014, 01:07 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,549
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Whatever happened to the days when $100-horses won in photo finishes? 
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Live to play another day.
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10-01-2014, 08:56 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,822
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That was pretty bizarre.
One interesting bit of information: the winner was 30-1 with 1 minute to post, 36-1 after the first half-mile, and shot up to 55-1 at that point. So apparently the fix was on but no one was aware of it.
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10-01-2014, 12:30 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 22
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I was there live for this race yesterday. While 55-1, the #6 was very logical. Its form wasn't to bad and the only other horse in the field that ever ran more than a 1 1/4 mile was the #4 horse. (This was the horse that ran 2nd at Mountaineer and lost by 50 lengths.) It actually broke down on the final lap and got loose. Plus the jockey was hot that day. Won on a 7-1 18-1 and 55-1.
But yeah horse racing is a should've would've game. I chickened out as I wanted to put $2 on it. Just didn't have the guts.
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10-01-2014, 07:43 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
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There are always blowout wins in marathons! It's nothing new. Happened at Mountaineer not too long ago.
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10-01-2014, 07:58 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,822
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by letswastemoney
There are always blowout wins in marathons! It's nothing new. Happened at Mountaineer not too long ago.
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You can't tell me you've seen a 55-1 shot win by 30 lengths lately. It doesn't really mean anything, but it is extremely unusual. If you know of another race where a 55-1 shot won by 30 lengths, please post the chart.
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10-01-2014, 08:03 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by castaway01
You can't tell me you've seen a 55-1 shot win by 30 lengths lately. It doesn't really mean anything, but it is extremely unusual. If you know of another race where a 55-1 shot won by 30 lengths, please post the chart.
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If more 2 mile races were carded, it would happen a lot more often. Since 2 mile races are rare, I can't dig up any data or more charts reflecting that. *or it would take a lot of research anyway
Last edited by letswastemoney; 10-01-2014 at 08:06 PM.
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10-01-2014, 08:10 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
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The real question is whether this horse deserved to be 55/1. Like another poster mentioned, he ran marathon distances before and the speed figures for them weren't terrible.
55/1 doesn't reflect the horse's chances to win. It only reflects what the public thinks will happen.
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10-01-2014, 11:59 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: South Jersey
Posts: 7,727
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Thanks, Letswastemoney. I wanted to see the 55-1 shot's PP's ever since I saw this thread. 
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One flew east, one flew west,
One flew over the cuckoo's nest.
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10-02-2014, 10:51 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,413
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by letswastemoney
The real question is whether this horse deserved to be 55/1. Like another poster mentioned, he ran marathon distances before and the speed figures for them weren't terrible.
55/1 doesn't reflect the horse's chances to win. It only reflects what the public thinks will happen.
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He was a underlay, he ran in the same race last year at 63-1.
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10-02-2014, 05:38 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 7,510
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In looking the three consecutive starts last year at 2 miles plus, this horse did not perform so poorly that it should be virtually ignored at 55-1.
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10-02-2014, 05:47 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,549
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thespaah
In looking the three consecutive starts last year at 2 miles plus, this horse did not perform so poorly that it should be virtually ignored at 55-1.
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How can you say this without knowing who this horse raced against on Tuesday?
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10-02-2014, 05:50 PM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 7,510
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thaskalos
How can you say this without knowing who this horse raced against on Tuesday?
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Easy. I meant my post to be taken literally.
The key is "virtually ignored"....I did not say this horse was the best in the race.
My point is based on this animal's PP's it appears to me to not be a throw out.
I am not arguing any other points. This is merely an opinion base on the information given.
Last edited by thespaah; 10-02-2014 at 05:51 PM.
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10-02-2014, 05:54 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,549
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thespaah
Easy. I meant my post to be taken literally.
The key is "virtually ignored"....I did not say this horse was the best in the race.
My point is based on this animal's PP's it appears to me to not be a throw out.
I am not arguing any other points. This is merely an opinion base on the information given.
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And it appears to me that we can only judge if a horse is a "throw out" when we know who he is running against.
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10-02-2014, 08:36 PM
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#15
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,842
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3rd off a layoff (angle) and return to a past-favorable distance structure.
At this level, horses win off ugly lines like these every day. And they beat horses coming off much prettier lines.
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