Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 01-21-2023, 12:05 PM   #1
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
FORMULA'S BET SIZE CALCULATION

FOR YOUR ENJOYMENT


FORMULA’S BET SIZE CALCULATION

ALL CALCULATIONS ARE BASED UPON THE FAVORITE AS THE FIELD IS LOADING INTO THE GATE, OR THEREABOUTS.

BASED ON MY EXACTA PROBABILITIES, THE MATRIX LINE SUM FOR THE FAVORITE =C
C/ SUM OF THE ENTIRE EXACTA MATRIX SUM = B
AB = MY FAVORITE WIN PROBABILITY
MY BET SIZE = C X B X AB.
# RACE = 32
WIN % = 56%
ACTUAL WINS = 18
EXPECTED WINS = 11.
$1 BET SIZE RETURN WAS $1.29
FLAT BET SIZE $1 RETURN WAS $1.24


THE BET SIZE WAS DETERMINED IN A SEPARATE DATABSE OF 53 RACES
WIN %=62%
ACTUAL WINS= 33
EXPECTED WINS 18
$1 BET SIZE RETURN WAS $1.40
FLAT BET SIZE WAS $1.38
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-21-2023, 02:55 PM   #2
elhelmete
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,731

yeah right.
In before the lock!
elhelmete is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-21-2023, 03:16 PM   #3
headhawg
crusty old guy
 
headhawg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,909
Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete View Post

yeah right.
In before the lock!
You forgot the "thereabouts" part which for him means "at any time, including after the race is over".

He didn't get enough attention in Selections so he has to put more of his bullshit here. Look at how he manipulates the numbers. Look at the size of his database. And how come his reports are always positive even when his posted picks run out, which they do a LOT!? It's amazing how he wins all of the races that he doesn't post here. And then he has to bold and COLOR and increase the FONT SIZE in his posts to draw more attention. It's just as bad (if not worse) than posters who use ALL CAPS. This guy is unbelievable.
__________________
"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln

Last edited by headhawg; 01-21-2023 at 03:17 PM.
headhawg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-21-2023, 03:43 PM   #4
elhelmete
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,731
Quote:
Originally Posted by headhawg View Post
You forgot the "thereabouts" part which for him means "at any time, including after the race is over".

He didn't get enough attention in Selections so he has to put more of his bullshit here. Look at how he manipulates the numbers. Look at the size of his database. And how come his reports are always positive even when his posted picks run out, which they do a LOT!? It's amazing how he wins all of the races that he doesn't post here. And then he has to bold and COLOR and increase the FONT SIZE in his posts to draw more attention. It's just as bad (if not worse) than posters who use ALL CAPS. This guy is unbelievable.
But the views and post counts matter to someone.
elhelmete is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-21-2023, 05:12 PM   #5
formula_2002
what an easy game.
 
formula_2002's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
I have you two on "ignor". Life is good😎
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA

" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
formula_2002 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 01-21-2023, 06:27 PM   #6
headhawg
crusty old guy
 
headhawg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,909
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002 View Post
I have you two on "ignor". Life is good😎
But most other members don't. Life is great!

__________________
"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln

Last edited by headhawg; 01-21-2023 at 06:35 PM.
headhawg is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:32 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.