Playing 2-4 horses per race

[Light]

I'd like to add another 2 caveats of betting 3 horses to win vs 3 in a pk3.

A) The win bets are $2 each. $6 per race basis. The Pk3's are 50C basis. In three races with win you pay $18. In a 3x3x3 Pk3 you pay $13.50. And still the payout of hitting a 50c pk3 with a price horse outweighs the $2 win return.

B) Odds of horse you bet on drops precipitously after the gates open. Today a horse went in the gate @ 7-1 (12-1 ML) and won as the 3-1 favorite. (GP 4th #8).

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Light

I'd like to add another 2 caveats of betting 3 horses to win vs 3 in a pk3.

A) The win bets are $2 each. $6 per race basis. The Pk3's are 50C basis. In three races with win you pay $18. In a 3x3x3 Pk3 you pay $13.50. And still the payout of hitting a 50c pk3 with a price horse outweighs the $2 win return.

A) I’d like to counter your “caveats” with what I believe to be a much more open-minded and $ to $ (apples-to-apples) comparison between each approach.
The premise involves playing 3 entries to win in each of 3 properly selected races that are deemed to produce a valued return. The play would be instead of $2 to win on each entry (as you suggested) it would be $4 to win on each entry in only the 1st race. (This is a close enough equivalent to the proposed $13.50 bet on the O.A. 50 cent Pick-3).

Assuming you hit all 3 races at reasonable odds; say a conservative average of even just 5-1, the return after the 1st race would be $24. This would now be Parlayed into the 2nd race by placing $8 to win on each of the 3 entries. The return (@ 5/1) would be $48. This again would be Parlayed into the 3rd race by placing $16 on each entry to win.
The final return (@ 5/1) would be $72.00.

Although they only offer $1.00 Pick-3s at AQU I’ll cut the returns in half to meet the proposed 50 cent 3x3x3 Pick-3 bet. Those Pick-3 returns for today (Sat 1-14-23) are as follows:
Races 1-2-3: $5.85 ---------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 1/1 – 7/2 – 2/5
Races 2-3-4: $35.12--------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 7/2 – 2/5– 6/1
Races 3-4-5: $33.38--------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 2/5– 6/1– 5/2
Races 4-5-6: $177.75-------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 6/1– 5/2– 4/1
Races 5-6-7: $43.88--------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 5/2– 4/1– 7/2
Races 6-7-8: $25.88--------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 4/1– 7/2– 7/5
Races 7-8-9: $60.50--------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 4/1– 7/2– 15/1
NOTE: The return on Races 4-5-6 seems to be an anomaly considering the individual odds of each winner. Eliminating that sequence (the highest return) and Races 1-2-3 (the lowest return), the average return of all the remaining races would be $39.75.

So, take your pick:
1) Select 3 individual races in any sequence you feel comfortable with that include 3 selected entries showing reasonable odds value. Then Parlay the returns in each of the next 2 races of your choice.
Or
2) Make your choice on a Pick-3 play where your forced into whatever sequence of races are being offered and play into unknown value factors for 2nd and 3rd races.

Originally Posted by Light

B) Odds of horse you bet on drops precipitously after the gates open. Today a horse went in the gate @ 7-1 (12-1 ML) and won as the 3-1 favorite. (GP 4th #8).

B) My only comment is that whenever you can find an entry that shows heavy betting contrary to its M/L (especially in Maiden races at the larger tracks) it just might be an indication that they’re trying today. Keep in mind that this betting scenario is NOT being created by your average handicapper. No matter what the final odds might turn out to be you might even want to make use of it as a “single” in your Pick-whatever bet or Parlay sequence to reduce the amount of the O.A. initial bet.
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[Ramblin]

Dang Nitro...good to see you're still kickin it! Hows the Hong Kong racing treating you? I miss casing you on those late night threads. Playing Sha-Tin has never been the same since you went away. Happy New Year

[Light]

Originally Posted by Nitro

A) I’d like to counter your “caveats” with what I believe to be a much more open-minded and $ to $ (apples-to-apples) comparison between each approach.
The premise involves playing 3 entries to win in each of 3 properly selected races that are deemed to produce a valued return. The play would be instead of $2 to win on each entry (as you suggested) it would be $4 to win on each entry in only the 1st race. (This is a close enough equivalent to the proposed $13.50 bet on the O.A. 50 cent Pick-3).

Assuming you hit all 3 races at reasonable odds; say a conservative average of even just 5-1, the return after the 1st race would be $24. This would now be Parlayed into the 2nd race by placing $8 to win on each of the 3 entries. The return (@ 5/1) would be $48. This again would be Parlayed into the 3rd race by placing $16 on each entry to win.
The final return (@ 5/1) would be $72.00.

Although they only offer $1.00 Pick-3s at AQU I’ll cut the returns in half to meet the proposed 50 cent 3x3x3 Pick-3 bet. Those Pick-3 returns for today (Sat 1-14-23) are as follows:
Races 1-2-3: $5.85 ---------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 1/1 – 7/2 – 2/5
Races 2-3-4: $35.12--------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 7/2 – 2/5– 6/1
Races 3-4-5: $33.38--------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 2/5– 6/1– 5/2
Races 4-5-6: $177.75-------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 6/1– 5/2– 4/1
Races 5-6-7: $43.88--------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 5/2– 4/1– 7/2
Races 6-7-8: $25.88--------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 4/1– 7/2– 7/5
Races 7-8-9: $60.50--------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 4/1– 7/2– 15/1
NOTE: The return on Races 4-5-6 seems to be an anomaly considering the individual odds of each winner. Eliminating that sequence (the highest return) and Races 1-2-3 (the lowest return), the average return of all the remaining races would be $39.75.

So, take your pick:
1) Select 3 individual races in any sequence you feel comfortable with that include 3 selected entries showing reasonable odds value. Then Parlay the returns in each of the next 2 races of your choice.
Or
2) Make your choice on a Pick-3 play where your forced into whatever sequence of races are being offered and play into unknown value factors for 2nd and 3rd races.

B) My only comment is that whenever you can find an entry that shows heavy betting contrary to its M/L (especially in Maiden races at the larger tracks) it just might be an indication that they’re trying today. Keep in mind that this betting scenario is NOT being created by your average handicapper. No matter what the final odds might turn out to be you might even want to make use of it as a “single” in your Pick-whatever bet or Parlay sequence to reduce the amount of the O.A. initial bet.
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This is pure fantasy, cherry picking, hindsight and bias.

First you tweak the rules so you can double your initial win and double your final total.

You call the $177 Pk3 an anomaly but not the anomaly of starting your round robin with a theoretical 5-1 shot and doubling the amount on that bet. How convenient.

In reality most of the time when playing 3 horses to win you are not going to conveniently pad your bankroll with a price horse and double down on him. You are going to get a favorite and lose money on the first round and have a negative bankroll to round robin 3 horses in your next leg. Not so in a Pk3 even with a favorite winning.

By upping your first leg to $4 a horse, your total investment is now $24 in 3 races compared to $13.50 per Pk3. A bankroll disadvantage to pk3's.

I've been busy and played my first races of the year yesterday. A pk3 @ Tup. Races 6-8.

First leg 8-1. Second leg almost 7-1. Third leg 3-1. 50c Pk3 paid $186. I didn't hit it. Only horse I had in my 3x3x3 pk3 was the last horse.

So if I played the original win way discussed here, $2 to win on each horse, I would have put in $18 and netted $-10. Now I am down $-13.50. With a $3.50 difference between the two betting strategies, and even with the win strategy scoring in one of its legs, its clear which strategy has greater potential for profit and leverage.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by Nitro

A) I’d like to counter your “caveats” with what I believe to be a much more open-minded and $ to $ (apples-to-apples) comparison between each approach.
The premise involves playing 3 entries to win in each of 3 properly selected races that are deemed to produce a valued return. The play would be instead of $2 to win on each entry (as you suggested) it would be $4 to win on each entry in only the 1st race. (This is a close enough equivalent to the proposed $13.50 bet on the O.A. 50 cent Pick-3).

Assuming you hit all 3 races at reasonable odds; say a conservative average of even just 5-1, the return after the 1st race would be $24. This would now be Parlayed into the 2nd race by placing $8 to win on each of the 3 entries. The return (@ 5/1) would be $48. This again would be Parlayed into the 3rd race by placing $16 on each entry to win.
The final return (@ 5/1) would be $72.00.

Although they only offer $1.00 Pick-3s at AQU I’ll cut the returns in half to meet the proposed 50 cent 3x3x3 Pick-3 bet. Those Pick-3 returns for today (Sat 1-14-23) are as follows:
Races 1-2-3: $5.85 ---------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 1/1 – 7/2 – 2/5
Races 2-3-4: $35.12--------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 7/2 – 2/5– 6/1
Races 3-4-5: $33.38--------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 2/5– 6/1– 5/2
Races 4-5-6: $177.75-------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 6/1– 5/2– 4/1
Races 5-6-7: $43.88--------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 5/2– 4/1– 7/2
Races 6-7-8: $25.88--------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 4/1– 7/2– 7/5
Races 7-8-9: $60.50--------Odds in order of the 3 winners – 4/1– 7/2– 15/1
NOTE: The return on Races 4-5-6 seems to be an anomaly considering the individual odds of each winner. Eliminating that sequence (the highest return) and Races 1-2-3 (the lowest return), the average return of all the remaining races would be $39.75.

So, take your pick:
1) Select 3 individual races in any sequence you feel comfortable with that include 3 selected entries showing reasonable odds value. Then Parlay the returns in each of the next 2 races of your choice.
Or
2) Make your choice on a Pick-3 play where your forced into whatever sequence of races are being offered and play into unknown value factors for 2nd and 3rd races.

B) My only comment is that whenever you can find an entry that shows heavy betting contrary to its M/L (especially in Maiden races at the larger tracks) it just might be an indication that they’re trying today. Keep in mind that this betting scenario is NOT being created by your average handicapper. No matter what the final odds might turn out to be you might even want to make use of it as a “single” in your Pick-whatever bet or Parlay sequence to reduce the amount of the O.A. initial bet.
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[1] During the last 60 days of racing, how many three race 5-1 or better sequences have there been? The answer is 6 (although doing this quickly, I might have missed one).

December 17th, Races 8-10(*);
December 10th, Races 5-7(*);
November 19th, Races 2-4(*), Races 7-9;
November 17th, Races 4-6(*), Races 5-7(*)

[2] When you dive into these six three-race individual sequences, you will find that 5 of the 6 included a horse at 10-1, several included sequences with a 20-1 shot.

[3] The falicy in this discussion getting you to your $72.00 value is that you both pick the right sequence (remember, only 6 in the last 60 days) and avoid the pitfalls associated with a 20-1 shot ... or you need to always have that 20-1 shot in your top three which is unlikely.

The point here is that by playing through the win pools, you are paying the takeout take every time you visit the windows as opposed to paying the takeout one time at the start of your bet. Mathematically, there is absolutely no way that your parlay algebra works in the general case.

[ScottJ]

Regarding the takeout point, here are the numbers using Nitro's example.

First, the Pick-3 calculation.

$0.50 Pick 3 on a 3x3x3 ticket = $13.50
$13.50 x 24% takeout = $3.24 takeout
Total takeout = $3.24

Now onto the Win bets.

In the opening leg, $12.00 * 16% = $1.92 takeout
In the second leg, $24.00 * 16% = $3.84 takeout
In the third leg, $48.00 * 16% = $7.68 takeout
Total takeout = $13.44

The cost of pursuing win bets in your example is $10.20. For that fee, you do gain the flexibility to call of your bet before the second and third legs and to adjust your bet amounts if needed.

However, the point is that you are paying a fee for that option.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

[1] During the last 60 days of racing, how many three race 5-1 or better sequences have there been? The answer is 6 (although doing this quickly, I might have missed one).

December 17th, Races 8-10(*);
December 10th, Races 5-7(*);
November 19th, Races 2-4(*), Races 7-9;
November 17th, Races 4-6(*), Races 5-7(*)

[2] When you dive into these six three-race individual sequences, you will find that 5 of the 6 included a horse at 10-1, several included sequences with a 20-1 shot.

[3] The falicy in this discussion getting you to your $72.00 value is that you both pick the right sequence (remember, only 6 in the last 60 days) and avoid the pitfalls associated with a 20-1 shot ... or you need to always have that 20-1 shot in your top three which is unlikely.

Thanks for taking the time to point out some things from your perspective of what you believe to be true. Granted there might have been a limited number of recent winning entries at AQU @ 5/1 or greater. I was simply using those races @ AQU as an example. However, my goal was to simply demonstrate that the Parlay results when hitting 3 hypothetical races where the AVERAGE odds might have been 5/1. In fact, had someone chosen to play and hit AQU races 4, 6, and 9, the odds on those 3 winners were 6/1, 4/1, and 15/1 (or an average of better than 8/1). The key word there is “chosen”, which unfortunately you don’t have that option when making a Pick-whatever bet. I won’t rewrite the potential Parlay return for that sequence. Besides other than Saratoga I rarely play the racing in NY, and I’m assuming you rarely play Hong Kong. If you did you, you might realize the huge difference in those returns versus what’s available here in the States. That in itself makes a 3 entry win bet either straight up or Dutched a much better possibility. Taking that to a Parlay level just dramatically increases the potential profit margin.

Originally Posted by ScottJ

The point here is that by playing through the win pools, you are paying the takeout take every time you visit the windows as opposed to paying the takeout one time at the start of your bet. Mathematically, there is absolutely no way that your parlay algebra works in the general case.

Originally Posted by ScottJ

Regarding the takeout point, here are the numbers using Nitro's example.

First, the Pick-3 calculation.

$0.50 Pick 3 on a 3x3x3 ticket = $13.50
$13.50 x 24% takeout = $3.24 takeout
Total takeout = $3.24

Now onto the Win bets.

In the opening leg, $12.00 * 16% = $1.92 takeout
In the second leg, $24.00 * 16% = $3.84 takeout
In the third leg, $48.00 * 16% = $7.68 takeout
Total takeout = $13.44

The cost of pursuing win bets in your example is $10.20. For that fee, you do gain the flexibility to call of your bet before the second and third legs and to adjust your bet amounts if needed.

However, the point is that you are paying a fee for that option.

Your misrepresentation of what occurs with the take-out is where we again completely disagree. Granted there is of course a take-out, but it occurs as the betting pools are filled. The amount in those pools is reduced by the take-out %. However, when the betting is completed, it has already been removed and the actual odds shown reflect the exact return you’ll receive if your bet wins. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I interpret your summary (above) to seemingly indicate that your return on a winning bet somehow becomes lower than the actual odds which are shown. I would have quit this game a long time ago if that were the case.
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[Light]

Originally Posted by Nitro

In fact, had someone chosen to play and hit AQU races 4, 6, and 9, the odds on those 3 winners were 6/1, 4/1, and 15/1 (or an average of better than 8/1). The key word there is “chosen”, which unfortunately you don’t have that option when making a Pick-whatever bet.
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You should try practicing what you preach and see what a fantasy land you live in.

[Light]

There is NOBODY on the planet who could have looked at Aqu's 9 race card on 1/14/23 and predicted that only races 4,6,and 9 would have a winner that paid at least 4-1 odds.

And you talk as if this is everyday Handicapping. That a handicapper can look at 9 races at a track and predict what only God could do.

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Light

You should try practicing what you preach and see what a fantasy land you live in.

The only fantasy revealed here is believing that you have better overall selection options and potentially superior results making a Pick-3 play. That, versus what I believe to be a more practical approach by having not only the option to select a preferable race to play, but to also decide on whether or not to play it based on the final odds of the 3 selections involved. Taking successful results to another chosen race and potentially bolstering the profit margin through a Parlay play does not require practice, just some common sense. That can only occur when one can recognize the significant differences between each betting approach.
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[Light]

Originally Posted by Nitro

The only fantasy revealed here is believing that you have better overall selection options and potentially superior results making a Pick-3 play.
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My Pk3 strategy is not a fantasy. According to my TS account, I made an overall profit from my Pk3's in all of 2022.

As I said, Nobody, but God could do what you propose. That's why I say, you live in a fantasy land or are pulling my leg cause your way is humanly impossible.