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Old 01-30-2023, 02:06 PM   #16
ScottJ
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Does the CAW have access to the "odds/will-pay boards/matrices" which are inaccessible to the rest of the betting public? And if so...would that constitute a noteworthy "edge"?
The CAW crowd does have access to a digital feed of current odds at an update rate which is faster than you have access to manually over the video feeds. The edge to the average player would be seeing where the late money is coming in CAW pools and using the information in non-CAW populated pools.

The discussion regarding pari-mutuel wagering is a good one. I have attempted to get a live, digital feed of the NYRA Bets odds boards for doubles and exactas as opposed to doing manual cut-copy-paste exercises to test certain models. That interface is closely guarded and not available (as far as I have been told thus far) for the average player.

That is what makes the playing field unlevel.

In some very important ways, this is like "front-running" the markets where a trading house can "see the order flow" on a stock and enter their buy/sell orders BEFORE executing others, thereby trading a trend seconds ahead of the general market traders.
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Old 01-30-2023, 02:14 PM   #17
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in any business these days companies give their larger customers rewards. if you are a very frequent flyer you not only get your bonus trip faster, but you get free admission to the courtesy rooms at the airports and you are allowed to get a free upgrade to first class should a seat become available. if you are a big spender at Home Depot or Lowes, they give you up to a 30 % discount. the same thing is with horseplayers. the problem that i have with the CAW is they have special tools to extract large amounts of money out of horseplayers that don't have these tools. i am not going into the subject of these special tools because i don't need any more arguments today, i am going to leave that to your imagination as to what they have.
When a big spender goes to Home Depot and gets a 30% discount on a product that I have to pay full price for...that "big spender" doesn't turn around and use that 30% discount as a hammering tool to beat me over the head with and cause me to pay even more for the said product than it was initially advertised for.

The CAW, on the other hand, takes the "discount" and uses it to crush the odds on certain horses below their "profitability" levels...and I find out only during the running of the race that I am now getting 7-5 odds on the horse that was advertised at 3-1 when the starting gate opened.
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Old 01-30-2023, 02:14 PM   #18
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Does the CAW have access to the "odds/will-pay boards/matrices" which are inaccessible to the rest of the betting public? And if so...would that constitute a noteworthy "edge"?
Not only do they have access to super-secret info you don't get, but they are told who is going to finish 1-5 every race.

And if it doesn't finish that way, they make sure the stewards alter the photo to make it happen.

Weird.
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Old 01-30-2023, 02:21 PM   #19
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No news here if you are paying attention. Obviously this is just a sampling of a lot more carryover situations. It appears he has to buy the data and thus was limited on how many days he could analyze. I get the point. It is nothing unexpected. These teams are very good and highly capitalized. While the individual punter might be playing with $200 or $400 of even $2000, these teams can be playing $20,000, $30,000 in a pool. If it chalks up they can design their play to hit it multiple times. If it bombs throughout they have enough coverage to often get through the mine storm.

Using these numbers as a guidepost (I did these numbers in my head so if I have a mistake or two someone can correct it), if you have 1 million dollar carryover mandatory payout situation and assume that 5 million is bet at a wash of about zero take the numbers get revised to them winning on average 28% and betting on average 31.75% of the pool(I determined these percentages by averaging the 16 days he presented). So on a typical 5 million dollar pool they are betting 1.5875 million getting back that 1.5875 million plus profits of 444,500 The rebates obviously do not come from the pool. The track is taking 1 million (assuming a 20% takeout). So for their activity they are getting back 1.5875 million and getting back about $2,032,000.. So public is betting about 3.4 million (just rounding here for ease), and getting back (5 million less 1 million takeout and less the about 2 million the teams are getting back or 2 million). So they are getting back 2 million for their 3.4125 million bet on a net zero takeout situation. Yikes, losing 41.4% on a zero takeout situation. Public might be better off playing a jackpot pick 6 on a non carryover day when at least some of the money is probably bomb hunting. This is the game the racing industry has built. Congrats. The rebates by the way are just free money for the teams (probably 10 to 12 %).
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Old 01-30-2023, 02:41 PM   #20
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PS. Andy Serling has been saying this forever (what Pat Cummings posted data proves)
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Old 01-30-2023, 03:24 PM   #21
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It's pretty well know the the biggest players (CAW)are very happy breaking even or even losing a couple %. Good? Or do they have a technology, bankroll, skill, AND rebate edge?

My comments have been strictly about the mandatory P-6 payouts. Your responses have been about other pools.
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Old 01-30-2023, 03:27 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by thaskalos View Post
Does the CAW have access to the "odds/will-pay boards/matrices" which are inaccessible to the rest of the betting public? And if so...would that constitute a noteworthy "edge"?

No.
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Old 01-30-2023, 03:36 PM   #23
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Does the CAW have access to the "odds/will-pay boards/matrices" which are inaccessible to the rest of the betting public? And if so...would that constitute a noteworthy "edge"?
I don't believe for a second that at least some of them do not have access to every dollar bet. Everyone from racing denies it. But if they are in the system, they are in the system. If they are extracting this much money out of the game why would they now want the added edge of knowing from advance betting how much respect each horse is getting in the betting. It is not like anyone will figure out that they are extracting this information if they are and they certainly aren't going to publicize it. It might help explain why they as a group have done so well. I will wear my tin foil hat today just to make you naysayers happy.

I remember years ago (I assume they do not do it anymore, but could be wrong-haven't really used Twinspires since they took away my ability to use their software to play multiple programs I had set up) Twinspires used to have group play where you could buy into a big pick 6 tickets. Do not recall those group tickets doing as well as the caw tickets are currently doing. In fact I sort of recall the opposite.

By the way just correcting my last post, I meant to say jackpot pick six pool on an non Mandatory Payout day, not a non carryover day.
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Old 01-30-2023, 03:53 PM   #24
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It's about a small group of people being given a license to play a different game than the rest of us. Everyone in any parimutuel pool should be playing with zero rebates and there should be one lower takeout rate for everyone. Especially at Gulfstream. If the Industry wants to grow the game that it.

Still another example of upside down thinking from HANA's head cheerleader.


According to him, the way to offset the opportunists who are sinking the ship at present is to lower the level at which the ship sits in the water and encourage more opportunists to climb aboard to snuff-out the last remaining signs of life.

It's absolutely brilliant! Lets implement it at once.


(what could go wrong?)



Why is it so challenging to understand that it's the rest of the players who need to be the focus of any remedy. Exacerbating the gross imbalance between the elite and the ordinary helps no one aside from those wanting only to grind the entire racing game to a halt.

You have to do something to aid the ordinary customer or he/she will do nothing other than to continue to walk away and continue to die off without replacement.


97% of all racegoers do not give a F&#@ about takeout.


According to the study from a decade ago, 97% of racegoers don't even know about takeout.

Furthermore, takeout remains approximately what it was a generation or two ago, and obviously as such, it cannot be any part of the reason for the ongoing demise of racing. (it is effectively a constant, and not a variable)


So yeah, lets lower the takeout to ... I dunno... 6%...

At 6% the CAW people won't even need rebates to hand your ass to you every day. It's blooming brilliant! Lets make it 4%... and bring even more opportunists to the table... then we can close all of the parimutuel windows, and lay-off all but the one voucher seller who works the midnight shift... because nobody will be on site anymore with all significant wagering confined to the CAW people playing from their offices.


Why don't we let HANA's head cheerleader kill-off horse racing at once so the rest of us don't have to watch racing die as the result of its own habitual and suicidal actions?
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Old 01-30-2023, 03:55 PM   #25
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PS. Andy Serling has been saying this forever (what Pat Cummings posted data proves)


I enjoy any rare p6,p5 talk from knowledgeable players.

Miss the Crist stuff. Enjoy Jonathan Stettin. I need to dig deeper, but certainly enjoy/respect anything Andy has to say.
/aside/ I think Stettin's preference for focus on Single(s) is at odds w/ TLG, although names aren't named. (hope not misquoting but thinking Serling has said something like "you hit P6 by surviving the sequence to get to your Opinions." )

In defense of Stettin; his single(s) is often his mi-range+ price opinion , whereas most racing fans with a "you must have SINGLE" stance are looking to pick between chalky contenders.

Some other good players here &HRT, as well probably have much to share

Don't know much about Mandatory, other than elementary assumption 'mandatory=good=play'...

For me initial lesson is that it's not sufficient long-term to play to 'hit' a mandatory, but that you nonetheless must have quality opinions to consider it an edge.
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Old 01-30-2023, 04:00 PM   #26
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I don't believe for a second that at least some of them do not have access to every dollar bet. Everyone from racing denies it. But if they are in the system, they are in the system. If they are extracting this much money out of the game why would they now want the added edge of knowing from advance betting how much respect each horse is getting in the betting. It is not like anyone will figure out that they are extracting this information if they are and they certainly aren't going to publicize it. It might help explain why they as a group have done so well. I will wear my tin foil hat today just to make you naysayers happy.

I remember years ago (I assume they do not do it anymore, but could be wrong-haven't really used Twinspires since they took away my ability to use their software to play multiple programs I had set up) Twinspires used to have group play where you could buy into a big pick 6 tickets. Do not recall those group tickets doing as well as the caw tickets are currently doing. In fact I sort of recall the opposite.

By the way just correcting my last post, I meant to say jackpot pick six pool on an non Mandatory Payout day, not a non carryover day.
WTF does "in the system" mean?

I was making automated computer bets 10+ years ago...the computer was analyzing the data and sending the bets in at the last minute through the ADW...all automatically without me doing a thing.

Was I "in the system?"

Sorry for the harsh tone, but I get tired of people calling others liars based on little then their gut feeling.
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Old 01-30-2023, 04:03 PM   #27
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Being a CAW does not provide an edge in the P-6 pool. Good handicapping and betting large amounts provides the edge.
Don't have a problem with them being this good. I do have a problem with them getting huge rebates on top of this. They don't need it, they obviously will play the pools anyways. The rebates also do affect their play (making them bet more and thus the more they bet the worse the public in general does). If you know you are getting 10% back no matter what it enables you to apply more aggression (and helps you get through the bad streaks and gives you the insurance/cushion that you do not need to make a profit to make money you only have to perform at better than a -10% roi). It is just a different game when you are being rebated to that degree and no not anybody can get those rebates and succeed, but for those that have the talent the rebates is a complete game changer.

The fact that racing has given up it's future to cater to these players is outright laughable. One day they will figure it out and that day it will be too late.

By the way notice that the caw handle has gone from about 23 to 24% in 2016-2017 to about 35% in 2021. Very small sample but the trend is pretty undeniable. In 5 years will they be up to 45% to 50% of the pool.

Basically racing is crushing the public on non mandatory payout days and the caw teams are crushing the public on mandatory payout days. Either way the public gets crushed and leaves the game.

One would think racing would be analyzing these numbers and being proactive to fix this game or at least improve the game somewhere, somehow, but no, when you have the mindset that the game is strictly entertainment, why concern yourself with such silliness. Feed the whales and hope the game survives. Brilliant philosophy . I just laugh, seriously.
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Old 01-30-2023, 04:15 PM   #28
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WTF does "in the system" mean?

I was making automated computer bets 10+ years ago...the computer was analyzing the data and sending the bets in at the last minute through the ADW...all automatically without me doing a thing.

Was I "in the system?"

Sorry for the harsh tone, but I get tired of people calling others liars based on little then their gut feeling.
Correction....I was doing this 15 years ago...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...highlight=Tote

December 2008 to be exact.
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Old 01-30-2023, 04:16 PM   #29
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WTF does "in the system" mean?

I was making automated computer bets 10+ years ago...the computer was analyzing the data and sending the bets in at the last minute through the ADW...all automatically without me doing a thing.

Was I "in the system?"

Sorry for the harsh tone, but I get tired of people calling others liars based on little then their gut feeling.
You do not have to be sorry. I am not calling anyone a liar. I believe they believe that the teams have no access to the betting. My guess is that some of the teams probably do and yes this is a gut feeling. No argument there.

I believe they are in the system. Meaning their computers are connect into racing's computer. So if they have the the right talent programming for them (and their is a huge financial motivation to have it) they can extract the data from racing's system and analyze every bet made as it enters the system. I will believe what I believe. Someone claiming I am wrong is not enough. I want actual evidence that this cannot happen.


Every 6 months or so hackers are extracting data from millions of customers from this big company or another. Why am I supposed to believe that caw teams cannot do similar with an invitation.
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Old 01-30-2023, 04:17 PM   #30
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Like I said, I was doing something like this 15 years ago.

Was I "in the system?"

No, I wasn't...I wasn't doing very well either.

But I was using a computer to analyze and place bets automatically.

And they are much smarter than I am...do they even need this phantom "extra info?"

I doubt it...even if it exists.
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