58th SOUTHWEST STAKES

[v j stauffer]

So, a 96 BEYER in career start number two.

Yes, he ran once as a 2-year-old but does anyone else think this horse seems similar to JUSTIFY?

What BEYER did JUSTIFY earn in his 2nd start?

The " he beat nothing " crowd is already in full voice. That argument rarely resonates with me and it's doesn't in this case.

CORONA BOLT, FROSTED DEPARTURE and JACE'S ROAD are all already Stakes winners. The latter two made moves around the turn (JACE'S ROAD) and into the lane (FROSTED DEPARTURE) that looked like they were major players.

ARABIAN KNIGHT swatted them away like flies landing on an elephant's neck.

I think this horse is going to win the KY DERBY and has a legitimate shot at the TC.

Of course, he has hurdles to clear. Who his trainer is going to be is obviously one. The other big one for me is he is a terrible looking mover.

VEKOMA called the other day and said man that 3 year old is a paddle wheeling molly!

Whatever direction his legs are going they're going FAST!

With action like that someone cashed a HUGE ticket selling him for $2.3 million.

I heard a lot of Sunday hype about RED ROUTE ONE. That I don't get. Yes he looked impressive coming from a hundred back and finishing 2nd.

But given the trips how could he not finish 2nd? Run the 1st half mile in 50 and be the ONLY horse that didn't take a run after AK and you've got yourself a runner up.

At this point he feels like this year's version of LOOKIN AT LEE.

If you want a sit and finish type obviously FORTE fills that bill and I'm high on both ANGEL OF EMPIRE and HIT SHOW who I hear is headed to NYRA.

I think he's very legit.

“He’s a horse I kind of want to give him plenty of time in between races,” Baffert said Sunday. “When he runs he puts in a big effort. I’m really not in a rush with him.”

That's gotta be a result of the way he moves.

One more prep and then Kentucky?

Blasphemy in the past. Standard operating procedure these days.

Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss!

Thoughts?

YouTube

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

The " he beat nothing " crowd is already in full voice. That argument rarely resonates with me and it's doesn't in this case.

[...]

ARABIAN KNIGHT swatted them away like flies landing on an elephant's neck.

I think this horse is going to win the KY DERBY and has a legitimate shot at the TC.
[...]

Thoughts?

Before worrying about the Triple Crown title based on a January prep, let's first name a Kentucky Derby winner that came from the Southwest Stakes.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Made it look pretty easy.

Judging by Baffert's comments, definitely sounds like he only has a single prep left. I wonder if it is one of the 50 point preps to give him more time before the Ky Derby? Maybe the Tampa Bay Derby on 3/11? Maybe the Sunland Derby on 3/26 like he did with Firing Line?

[Andy Asaro]

The #2 horse who was trained by Cox and was coming out of sprints missed the start/broke poorly. The winner dueled with a horse who was almost a toss and went off at super high odds. I'm sure the winner is very talented but there is nothing from that win that is super impressive IMO

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

The #2 horse who was trained by Cox and was coming out of sprints missed the start/broke poorly. The winner dueled with a horse who was almost a toss and went off at super high odds. I'm sure the winner is very talented but there is nothing from that win that is super impressive IMO

You're a tough room Andy.

A 5 1/2 length win in his 2nd start and first around two turns over "three" Stakes winners and a 96 BEYER isn't super impressive?

Sure was to me.

We shall see.

[lamboguy]

if ARABIAN KNIGHT happens to be in the Kentucky Derby, he's not going nowhere to that race. he wound up beating up on a bad field on a wet track with a big purse.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned

Made it look pretty easy.

Judging by Baffert's comments, definitely sounds like he only has a single prep left. I wonder if it is one of the 50 point preps to give him more time before the Ky Derby? Maybe the Tampa Bay Derby on 3/11? Maybe the Sunland Derby on 3/26 like he did with Firing Line?

Baffert won't be his trainer at that time. I'm not naive enough to think he won't be involved, and he is seeking a TRO to run in KY and NYRA this year. But to me given what he said I would think the Arkansas Derby makes the most sense.

It's 5 weeks before KY and a 100 point race which means he doesn't have to win to possibly earn enough points.

[v j stauffer]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

if ARABIAN KNIGHT happens to be in the Kentucky Derby, he's not going nowhere to that race. he wound up beating up on a bad field on a wet track with a big purse.

How can you say it was a BAD field LAMBO?

Three Stakes winners!

How many Derby Prep Stakes have there been? 10, 12?

Velasquez sat on him like they were going around again. It was his 2nd start and 1st route and his BEYER was 96.

Maybe he hated the wet track?

The way he travels makes me think he might have.

Just because good horses win in the mud doesn't mean they liked the footing.

[illinoisbred]

I didn't think it was a bad field though all week I was looking forward to playing Hit Show. As far as a wet track goes,I thought that would be a good experience since if he had stayed in So Cal,ever seeing a wet track would be highly unlikely. I mean, how many KY Derbys in the last 20 years have been run over an off/sloppy track? Enough I think that this experience could prove helpful. AK likely runs faster in his final prep (if there is just 1 more). Hope he comes back for the Arkansas Derby.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by v j stauffer

Thoughts?

Yea.

Even before The Southwest, he's looked !ike as good a chance as any brilliant horse in a given year of winning the Triple Crown.

Did nothing wrong in the Southwest, and it's more obvious now.

Taiba was a contender to win the '22 Derby, and ran very well but was against the grain. Obviously continued to have a good year.

This horse looks better at this point in my opinion.

Health (and demonstrates in aggressive workouts) , and pace setups are more important IMO than speed figures or a perfect record now.
Also interesting who will be the name trainer. Yakteen?

[BarchCapper]

THE CONTRARIAN VIEW:
After a number of years of analyzing my time spent contemplating various horses as potential Kentucky Derby winners and handicapping and analyzing preps, the last 3 years I've pretty much ignored ALL the 3yo racing and first looked at a set of any 3yo PPs (other than maiden races) once the draw is done for the Derby. That has worked out well for me.

The focus on the Derby before the race is drawn has got to be the biggest waste of collective time for horseplayers in this country. Last year was the crowning jewel, with at least 99 and 44/100% of the public analysis never even giving the winner a mention, let alone consideration (since so much is done before the draw). I'd argue that the be-all and end-all focus on the Derby hurts the sport as a whole, but that's another discussion.

When Oaklawn started expanding their season in 2019, the slogan became "Stay Until May".

I invite other horseplayers to think about their own time spent, and consider joining the "Wait Until May" movement!!!

[SharpCat]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

Before worrying about the Triple Crown title based on a January prep, let's first name a Kentucky Derby winner that came from the Southwest Stakes.

Smarty Jones

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by SharpCat

Smarty Jones

Good job - 2004 winner in the Southwest (run at the end of February as a listed stake), Rebel, Arkansas Derby, Kentucky Derby (favored at 4.10-1), and Preakness.

[BarchCapper]

Originally Posted by SharpCat

Smarty Jones

Because it HAS happened does not make it a good indicator of what WILL happen. Based on the runnings of the Southwest since 2004, the better indication of what will happen is that the winner will:

a) not run in the Derby at all - 8 times out of 19 runnings (split division in 2012)
b) finish in the back half of the field - 7/19
c) prop bet special - finish 15th - 4/19

Of the 4 times that the Southwest winner ran in the Derby and finished well (two 5ths, a 4th, and a 3rd) - three of those times the horse never won another race.

The only horse to win the Southwest since Smarty Jones and accomplish anything further was Essential Quality, who finished 4th in the Derby in 2021, before his Belmont/Travers victories.

Another plank to hammer into my "Wait Until May" platform.

Do I think the winner has a chance in the Derby? Sure. Do I need to devote any attention to him before Monday of Derby week? Based on history - no.

[affirmedny]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

Before worrying about the Triple Crown title based on a January prep, let's first name a Kentucky Derby winner that came from the Southwest Stakes.

LIL E TEE ran 3rd in 91