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Old 12-12-2022, 07:22 PM   #76
ranchwest
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You're the dolt who posted to classhandicapper that using common factors will lead to the favorite. (Brilliant insight, btw ) So given your $97 horse example are you saying that jockey win% is not a common factor? It's an easy question. Just answer yes or no so people here can understand your level of handicapping competence. I already know what it is.
You clearly don't know shit. You claim something to be a major factor and yet this horse went off at 47/1. How does that happen? Was the tote board rigged?
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Old 12-12-2022, 07:29 PM   #77
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You clearly don't know shit. You claim something to be a major factor and yet this horse went off at 47/1. How does that happen? Was the tote board rigged?
You brought up the example for reasons only you know. Clearly it is useless to discuss anything with you. You either don't read responses or can't understand them. You can't even answer a simple question based on one of your own posts. People can decide from this thread who clearly doesn't know shit. Your opinion means < 0.
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Old 12-12-2022, 08:05 PM   #78
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You brought up the example for reasons only you know. Clearly it is useless to discuss anything with you. You either don't read responses or can't understand them. You can't even answer a simple question based on one of your own posts. People can decide from this thread who clearly doesn't know shit. Your opinion means < 0.
Ha! You still haven't explained how a 20% jockey's mount went off at 47/1.

People do bet NAME JOCKEYS. Joel Rosario, the Ortiz brothers, etc. do draw money. Paco Lopez at certain tracks.

But win percentage is not something the average person catches on to early in a jock's career.
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Old 12-13-2022, 12:29 PM   #79
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Thanks Tom.

I'd be more than willing to put my spreadsheet out when I get some decent weights, but most of the ratings are my own. So I'm not so sure my weights would be very applicable to the ratings other people are using.
I use Dave Schwatrz's "Figuring Out What Wins" ideas to rate the model I keep for each of the 7 factors summerized on the BRIS Ultimate PPs. For Aqu, now Prime Power is #1, Speed last race #2. and Avg Class last 3 is #3. The rest aren't strong enough to bother with, but I will update as I see changes occurring. The model is 37 races right now, but I review it every week redo the weights. The screen shot below shows the number of wins for each factor rank of 1,2,3.

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Old 12-16-2022, 11:46 AM   #80
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I use Dave Schwatrz's "Figuring Out What Wins" ideas to rate the model I keep for each of the 7 factors summerized on the BRIS Ultimate PPs. For Aqu, now Prime Power is #1, Speed last race #2. and Avg Class last 3 is #3. The rest aren't strong enough to bother with, but I will update as I see changes occurring. The model is 37 races right now, but I review it every week redo the weights. The screen shot below shows the number of wins for each factor rank of 1,2,3.
I知 seeing similar kinds of things. As I add new factors I知 only getting a very small boost in the results, but I feel like I have a chance to make some major breakthroughs in weighing some of the things. I知 going to keep adding, testing, and tweaking. Right now I知 just looking at dirt, but I eventually want to break it down by sprints, routes, turf, dirt, and other.

The one area I want to test is pace projection and running style. I致e done a lot of that just looking at data, but without regression. It痴 tricky to figure out how to do it. I値l post some stuff soon.
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Old 01-05-2023, 11:40 AM   #81
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UPDATED SPREADSHEET

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Class, I attached an example spreadsheet for how I use it, for today's 3rd race at Aqueduct.

It uses the BRIS PP, AC3, and SR last race.
I weigh each according to current results and get a Power number.
The constant is simply the regression line formula for the percentages of the power numbers expressed as probability ranging from .01 to .99.
I got a request to expand the spreadsheet to allow 20 entries.
It is attached.

Only enter or delete daya in yellow cells. Any other cells may have a fromula.
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File Type: xls ODDS POWER NUMBERS INDEX 20.xls (16.0 KB, 73 views)
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Old 01-05-2023, 04:32 PM   #82
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THANKS TOM
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Old 01-05-2023, 05:00 PM   #83
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THANKS TOM
Ditto. Good info.
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Old 01-07-2023, 11:18 AM   #84
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I知 still working on this.

So far I致e tested Beyer Figure, Class Rating, Running Style, Trainer Rating and Jockey Rating.

Then I switched over to testing last 5 Beyer Figures and Last 5 Class Ratings.

When I have good weights for using multiple races, I値l go back to adding new factors.

It痴 a slow process because first I have to write the queries to get the appropriate data and then download it into Excel where I can begin running regressions on it. Plus I知 also trying to improve the metrics I知 creating. I only do it in my spare time. I知 hoping in a few months to have a model that will create an odds line to test against the actual race results.

When I have meaningful data I値l post some of it.
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Old 01-25-2023, 11:55 AM   #85
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Here a copy of my regression spreadsheet as it exists now. I still have a long way to go to refine the existing factors and add new ones, but it's a pretty good start.

I may not have done it the most efficient way possible, but I'm not an expert at regression analysis. It works.

My spreadsheet contains all dirt Graded Stakes in my database (2015 through current). I couldn't post the entire thing here because it exceeded the upload limit of Paceadvantage, but there's a lot of data here to at least see what I am doing and what weights for each factor it came up with for the entire thing.

I'd be happy to answer any question about the data.

For the record, using just the spreadsheet data alone on Graded Stakes on dirt from 2015 through the tail end of 2022 (need to update it again), it predicted 35.55% winners and had an ROI of .9026.

So with with no handicapping or subjective analysis at all and not even considering some factors the win% was quite good and the ROI far exceeded the track take.

Eventually, I'll break it out by dirt sprint, dirt route, turf sprint, turf route to get more refined weights and post those results also. It's going to take time though because I have to keep up with day to day handicapping.
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Old 01-26-2023, 02:21 AM   #86
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Here a copy of my regression spreadsheet as it exists now. I still have a long way to go to refine the existing factors and add new ones, but it's a pretty good start.

I may not have done it the most efficient way possible, but I'm not an expert at regression analysis. It works.

My spreadsheet contains all dirt Graded Stakes in my database (2015 through current). I couldn't post the entire thing here because it exceeded the upload limit of Paceadvantage, but there's a lot of data here to at least see what I am doing and what weights for each factor it came up with for the entire thing.

I'd be happy to answer any question about the data.

For the record, using just the spreadsheet data alone on Graded Stakes on dirt from 2015 through the tail end of 2022 (need to update it again), it predicted 35.55% winners and had an ROI of .9026.

So with with no handicapping or subjective analysis at all and not even considering some factors the win% was quite good and the ROI far exceeded the track take.

Eventually, I'll break it out by dirt sprint, dirt route, turf sprint, turf route to get more refined weights and post those results also. It's going to take time though because I have to keep up with day to day handicapping.
Npt trying to be critical, but separating the surfaces seems critical to me. Turf and all-weather are nothing like dirt. It gets to be tricky because there's also track condition. And, of course, distance. And the factors. That's already a LOT of different models.
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Old 01-26-2023, 10:14 AM   #87
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Npt trying to be critical, but separating the surfaces seems critical to me. Turf and all-weather are nothing like dirt. It gets to be tricky because there's also track condition. And, of course, distance. And the factors. That's already a LOT of different models.
This first spreadsheet is just dirt.

I wanted to get something that was functional up and running before I started breaking down it further like sprint/route, races loaded with speed/races with no speed etc.. And this is just graded stakes. The weights would be different for some other kinds of races.

Breaking it down is easy. That's just the selection criteria out of my database. That's a 10 second change to a query and running it. The tougher part is creating metrics that help pick more winners at greater value.

I want to add a consistency metric (working on it now) and I also want to play around with a running line selection criteria.

This spreadsheet is producing excellent results just looking at last race regardless of the conditions that day and today. So clearly I should be able to improve on this just by selectively looking at prior races and bringing in more relevant ones. But that's a lot of testing before I figure out the best way to do it. Then I can run it through the regression to see how to weight it vs. other factors. This is going to take me a long time, but when it's done it should be good. I already learned a couple of things and I'm just getting started.
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Old 01-26-2023, 11:46 AM   #88
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This first spreadsheet is just dirt.

I wanted to get something that was functional up and running before I started breaking down it further like sprint/route, races loaded with speed/races with no speed etc.. And this is just graded stakes. The weights would be different for some other kinds of races.

Breaking it down is easy. That's just the selection criteria out of my database. That's a 10 second change to a query and running it. The tougher part is creating metrics that help pick more winners at greater value.

I want to add a consistency metric (working on it now) and I also want to play around with a running line selection criteria.

This spreadsheet is producing excellent results just looking at last race regardless of the conditions that day and today. So clearly I should be able to improve on this just by selectively looking at prior races and bringing in more relevant ones. But that's a lot of testing before I figure out the best way to do it. Then I can run it through the regression to see how to weight it vs. other factors. This is going to take me a long time, but when it's done it should be good. I already learned a couple of things and I'm just getting started.
I hear ya!

It took me a long time to develop a pace line selector. One of the things I did was to seek out the lines selected by experts who I respected and see what it would take to arrive at the same line programmatically. I now have a LOT of weighted factors. I think it is fairly good, but I would not say it is etched in stone.
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Old 02-05-2023, 11:50 PM   #89
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May I ask, do you have a template on access that downloads directly into your cells for drf formulator.?

Just curious as I have no idea on how to design such a thing. I use google sheets right now as I have not renewed my subscription. I would love to be able to import the formulator pp's and incorporate into my design I have made on google sheets in terms of my handicapping. Your input would be greatly appreciated. Not a techie.

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Old 02-06-2023, 10:07 AM   #90
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May I ask, do you have a template on access that downloads directly into your cells for drf formulator.?

Just curious as I have no idea on how to design such a thing. I use google sheets right now as I have not renewed my subscription. I would love to be able to import the formulator pp's and incorporate into my design I have made on google sheets in terms of my handicapping. Your input would be greatly appreciated. Not a techie.

Chuck.
Importing Formulator PPs and results charts is not that difficult once you have your database designed. There are probably very automated ways to do it, but I do it manually. It takes a couple of minutes to download the Formulator and results files and then import them into the database.

Once you have that in place, you can create queries against the tables in the database to select the fields you want. There's an export feature that will create an excel spreadsheet with the column headings. That part is very easy.

Sometimes I create more elaborate queries with calculations etc.. and it works the same way.

Some things are easier to do in Excel and some easier in Access.

So sometimes I even download data into Excel, manipulate it the way I want, and then import it back into Access.
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