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Old 09-15-2020, 10:21 AM   #106
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I thought Motion had a feed issue eerily similar to the baffert case, thought he even took it to court.
Yes, he recently had one drug positive, but in the NY Times article I referenced, Motion had zero positives in over 10,000 starts. Now he has 1 and many more starts added.
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Old 09-15-2020, 10:22 AM   #107
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I just realized it should be 10,000 "starters".
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Old 09-15-2020, 10:49 AM   #108
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Yes, he recently had one drug positive, but in the NY Times article I referenced, Motion had zero positives in over 10,000 starts. Now he has 1 and many more starts added.
probably a lot more, by a lot of trainers, these racing commissions can sweep things under the rug so to speak.
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Old 09-15-2020, 12:22 PM   #109
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I just realized it should be 10,000 "starters".
I didn't even realize the error. I just found the "line" hysterical because you would think "feed positives" would impact everyone similarly once you have many thousands of starters. Time for a new supplier.
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Old 09-16-2020, 03:03 PM   #110
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Arrogate was a unique horse. Lots of 3yos improve during the spring or summer. Very few run 97, 103, 99 in allowance races and then run a 122 in a Grade 1 stakes only 23 days later unless it was bias aided. Usually the improvement is slower and steadier. Jumps like that are usually reserved for young second time starters that were more or less prepped or that had a bad trip first time out and horses just claimed by trainers doing seances with Oscar Barrera.
Good point. Another thing that I found strange, Saratoga's track surface was not fast that year, as had been the trend for several years, and the rail was not the best place, many dead rail days. Arrogate ships in and guns down the inside setting brisk fractions for 10 furlongs and draws off powerfully to become the only horse in the history of Saratoga to run 10 furlongs in under two minutes. It did not look natural.
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Old 09-16-2020, 06:40 PM   #111
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Good point. Another thing that I found strange, Saratoga's track surface was not fast that year, as had been the trend for several years, and the rail was not the best place, many dead rail days. Arrogate ships in and guns down the inside setting brisk fractions for 10 furlongs and draws off powerfully to become the only horse in the history of Saratoga to run 10 furlongs in under two minutes. It did not look natural.
I never checked the data to this detail, but it seems his horses "freak" like that more often when he ships. It also seems like it's not unusual for him to ship in several horses and they either all fire their "A" race or better or they all just run OK. He has a very good record shipping to some tracks.

For me, he's a gambling dilemma.

When I evaluate his lightly raced horses based on how they've been running and typical improvement I have one thing in mind, but I know there's a better chance his horse is going to jump up to a big new peak than for the typical good trainer. The problem is the horse is also going to take extra Baffert money. So there's no edge in that knowledge. I feel like I'm playing a form of Russian roulette betting on him or against him and I don't know if the gun is loaded.
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Old 09-16-2020, 07:28 PM   #112
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Arrogate was a generational talent.
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Old 09-16-2020, 09:42 PM   #113
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Arrogate was a generational talent.
Baffert has had more than his share of generational talents
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Old 09-16-2020, 09:45 PM   #114
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I never checked the data to this detail, but it seems his horses "freak" like that more often when he ships. It also seems like it's not unusual for him to ship in several horses and they either all fire their "A" race or better or they all just run OK. He has a very good record shipping to some tracks.

For me, he's a gambling dilemma.

When I evaluate his lightly raced horses based on how they've been running and typical improvement I have one thing in mind, but I know there's a better chance his horse is going to jump up to a big new peak than for the typical good trainer. The problem is the horse is also going to take extra Baffert money. So there's no edge in that knowledge. I feel like I'm playing a form of Russian roulette betting on him or against him and I don't know if the gun is loaded.
This is similar to the "Russell Baze problem" at NorCal tracks back in the day. He really was the best rider on the circuit. He was also overbet.
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Old 09-16-2020, 09:46 PM   #115
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Arrogate was a generational talent.
For four races.
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Old 09-16-2020, 11:02 PM   #116
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I never checked the data to this detail, but it seems his horses "freak" like that more often when he ships. It also seems like it's not unusual for him to ship in several horses and they either all fire their "A" race or better or they all just run OK. He has a very good record shipping to some tracks.

For me, he's a gambling dilemma.

When I evaluate his lightly raced horses based on how they've been running and typical improvement I have one thing in mind, but I know there's a better chance his horse is going to jump up to a big new peak than for the typical good trainer. The problem is the horse is also going to take extra Baffert money. So there's no edge in that knowledge. I feel like I'm playing a form of Russian roulette betting on him or against him and I don't know if the gun is loaded.
Drug trainers in general turn me off to the product. The last few years I couldn't bet Monmouth, a track I like, because Servis and Navarro had too many horses. To me, that completely ruins the racing because if one of them has a horse in the race that they just got in their barn, you couldn't really handicap the race because if that horse reacted well to the crap they were using, it was going to win easily. These corrupt trainers are a scourge to the industry.
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Old 09-16-2020, 11:14 PM   #117
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Arrogate was a generational talent.
You might find my recent editorial on Baffert enlightening. He has more drug violations than any trainer in the sport. I lost track after 23, he gets so many positives, it's hard to keep track of. His percentage of violations per start, about one every 500 starts, is enormously higher than most trainers, with only two other trainers in that category.

There are very successful trainers that have had 8,000 to 10,000 starters, similar to Baffert, and have 1 drug violation. When those 7 horses dropped dead in a 16 month period of either cardiac arrest or an aneurysm, that was because of drugs he gave the horses. He killed them.

Justify failed a drug test after his Santa Anita Derby win (that's still in the courts, he may actually have to forfeit the win). Two horses that raced at Oaklawn including the Arkansas Derby winner (who is now lame) tested positive for lidocaine, which is pain killing drug. Both horses had to forfeit the purse money. Baffert only got a 15-day suspension, but the industry protects him. There's a lot more in my editorial. He also got caught using Morphine on a horse.
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Old 09-16-2020, 11:31 PM   #118
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You might find my recent editorial on Baffert enlightening. He has more drug violations than any trainer in the sport. I lost track after 23, he gets so many positives, it's hard to keep track of. His percentage of violations per start, about one every 500 starts, is enormously higher than most trainers, with only two other trainers in that category.

There are very successful trainers that have had 8,000 to 10,000 starters, similar to Baffert, and have 1 drug violation. When those 7 horses dropped dead in a 16 month period of either cardiac arrest or an aneurysm, that was because of drugs he gave the horses. He killed them.

Justify failed a drug test after his Santa Anita Derby win (that's still in the courts, he may actually have to forfeit the win). Two horses that raced at Oaklawn including the Arkansas Derby winner (who is now lame) tested positive for lidocaine, which is pain killing drug. Both horses had to forfeit the purse money. Baffert only got a 15-day suspension, but the industry protects him. There's a lot more in my editorial. He also got caught using Morphine on a horse.
if you aint cheatn then you aint trying....think your energy is misplaced, rules will be bent, broken, and shattered if they are not enforced.
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Old 09-17-2020, 12:00 AM   #119
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And if you think, this cheating is a new problem, I have a bridge I want to sell you. This has been going one ever since the 1st match race between two kings has been going on.
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Old 09-17-2020, 02:21 AM   #120
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if you aint cheatn then you aint trying....think your energy is misplaced, rules will be bent, broken, and shattered if they are not enforced.

Unfortunately, rules aren't the only things being bent, broken, and shattered.


With cheaters you always have to ask yourself "how far will they go to win?" and then wonder how many horses have been held together with *whatever*......... to win just one more race.

And much to their detriment and comfort.

Last edited by clicknow; 09-17-2020 at 02:30 AM.
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