I'm back to show you the pace lines i'm using in the race with a short explanation of who I like and why.
To begin with, i'm including the EXCEL spreadsheet i used to handicap the race because unless your using the program i used, I can't transfer the data to where you can INTERACTIVELY see what I did. If you have Excel, then all you have to do is click on a column header, hit DATA and sort the columns Z to A. Next, I've included the Derby Model averages on one line and the Race averages on another line. That's what the + is for. It shows the horses whose line is above the columns average, always a positive but I still follow the Model averages. I've gone over past races using the Models #'s and I can tell you the numbers work, going back to 2005 thru last year. The TRICK is knowing which pace line to choose. I simplify things by choosing the BEST TPR # for the horse, ALA RAY TAULBOT and Sartin agreed with him. WORKS FOR ME. I also look at form. To me pace without form is meaningless. With quality stake horses don't worry about using a line that's not recent. Just follow the yellow brick road.
I know the TPR #s are not adjusted for distance and track variant, just use route lines in route races and vice versa. Occasionally I will use a TURF line in a DIRT race like with the #4 in this race, again NOT ADJUSTING the numbers, just read THE MATCH-UP by Jim " the hat' Bradshaw, he never adjusted anything either.
The only problem I had in this race is with the #12 horse. He ran a strong race 2 back and I believed he bounced in his last race. Another thing was he came back in 10 days, to a new track around 1 sweeping turn. I've seen many horses coming from speed tracks with sharp turns fall apart at Belmont. So, I couldn't use his last race, NON-COMPETITIVE, and I couldn't use his 2nd back, because that race was the Atypical, too fast a pace, until he shows me it's not Atypical for him. So I settled on his 1-4-20 race. I didn't feel it was appropriate to use that turf race where he ran a 195 TPR. One other thing about the 12 is he just did a 57 and change work for this race and for a 3yo running against other 3 yos, that could be a form reversal sign. Again, he only ran twice on turf and until he runs more races on the grass, Atypical.
For those that can't open the spreadsheet, here's my analysis: F2, F3 and AP are the Decisive factors in the derby. Under F2 are the 12-4-7-17; HE 12-4-17 and AP 12-17-4. I'm settling on the 4 & 12 because the 17 was 4th under F2 and because I don't chase 2/5 shots, EVER! Looking at F1 one can see there's no lone early in this race. Under C2 does anybody think the 12 will be on equal terms with the 17, maybe, but not because he was fighting him the whole race,if he does he will hang in the stretch, but because he has enough inherent speed to maybe catch and pass the 17 at the 1/4 pole. With the 4 horse he has the ability to stay in touch with the field and enough inherent ability to close on the pace. No question the 17 is class but once in awhile even the best succumb to a fast pace. Let's hope that's the case here.
Horses with an A+ are dangerous to get into the exotics. I see it every Derby. Last year Country House, Giacomo in 2005, Lookin at Lee in 2017 and those are some of the good price ones.
The 2 in this race is also an A+. The reason I did not give him a line was i felt he had his "mulligan" last time against the 17 and failed. The other horses i did not rate i felt they had no shot.
Just click on the links below. One for the spreadsheet and the other link explains the P.E.% number. One more point. I'll favor horses with a higher % # in the derby over a lower %#. If you notice the DECelaration avg. is a (-) #. Normally in routes those #'s tend to be positive, sprints and 1 turn mile races tend to be negative.
I couldn't upload the page so i'll just explain it real fast. Let's say a horse has 10 pp lines. 4 calls times 10 =40. Just add up all the calls where the horse was 1st or 2nd and divide by, in this case 40 and that gives you the %. It doesn't have to be the the 1st and 2nd calls. It could be the stretch,the finish also.
Good Luck.
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