Building a Better Model

[CBYRacer]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

Keep in mind that the teams earning large rebates are not trying to maximize ROI, they're trying to maximize total profit. If they're making 10-15%, they might be leaving money on the table. However, for smaller bettors who pick and choose spots, you'd probably expect a larger ROI, smaller profit.

For most individual recreational bettors though, isn't profit maximization at their favorite home track the most intuitive/likely objective function? If I'm recreational, I'm probably closely following 1 maybe 2 tracks. In addition, I'm also not probably going to sit on the sidelines waiting for 2-3 spot plays a week where I have positive expectancy just so I can earn a higher % (not $) return. If this is the context in Hues example (I don't know this for certain), the 3% ROI is relevant.

Do you disagree?

[Hues10]

Realize this may be a loaded question, but how many people here over the last 6 months to a year have had a profit from horse betting? I thought I read somewhere 97% do not, but that may be everyone betting. How about people here who follow Some sort of handicapping system? Tote Board, analyzing PP’s, etc. Not trying to burst anyone’s bubble. Many books written and articles quoted, yet anyone making positive dollars? Or is it like Vegas, and very few make money, one cause the odds are against you (track takeout), and lack of inside information so efficient betting market theory takes over?

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by CBYRacer

For most individual recreational bettors though, isn't profit maximization at their favorite home track the most intuitive/likely objective function? If I'm recreational, I'm probably closely following 1 maybe 2 tracks. In addition, I'm also not probably going to sit on the sidelines waiting for 2-3 spot plays a week where I have positive expectancy just so I can earn a higher % (not $) return. If this is the context in Hues example (I don't know this for certain), the 3% ROI is relevant.

Do you disagree?

My guess is that the wider net a bettor wants to cast in terms of # of races, the more likely that he'll be running up against the plays made by the teams, which will result in no value being found. If I were a casual player who still wanted to make some money (or at least lose slowly), I'd pick and choose my spots pretty carefully.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I read James Quinn's new book...and he says that a 15% ROI in this game is readily attainable...even WITHOUT a sophisticated betting syndicate or a rebate.

https://www.amazon.com/Complete-Hand...s%2C175&sr=1-1

I know handicapping books are more scarce now but thats a 2012 book, before CAW even began to hit their stride. I wonder now that they are 30-35% of handle, with likely even more significant rebates, if his opinion would be different.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I know handicapping books are more scarce now but thats a 2012 book, before CAW even began to hit their stride. I wonder now that they are 30-35% of handle, with likely even more significant rebates, if his opinion would be different.

The book was released in November of 2017.

[headhawg]

Maybe the Kindle version in 2017, but the print version was published in 2012 according to a DRF press release and goodreads.com.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by headhawg

Maybe the Kindle version in 2017, but the print version was published in 2012 according to a DRF press release and goodreads.com.

I bought the hardback edition when it first came out...and I would have bet serious money that it was released in 2017. I actually went and opened it up to make sure that your post was accurate. Jesus, does time fly! Either that...or I am losing my freaking mind.

[classhandicapper]

My results from 1996-2013 vs. 2014-2019 suggest the game is a lot tougher now than it used to be (1996 is the farthest back I still have my actual results). I don't think it's a coincidence that my results started changing at around the same time the pools started becoming heavily influenced by computers and way more information became available to way more people in the social media era.

The game must have gotten tougher because I know more now than I used to and am 100% certain I construct bets better now.

2020 has been more like the 90s so far, but it's not over yet and I'm probably playing even tighter than I used to. Very few people would work as hard as I do and pass as many races as I do unless they simply love the sport the way I do. If they love gambling action, they'd take up a different game.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Jeffwb

The word "rebate" keeps coming up. What % break are these syndicates getting? Are they literally calling track management and basically asking for a break on the take out? It seems to me this type of thing would have to be regulated and not just a personal decision.

It's my personal opinion that a regulation should be made nationally that no take out should be greater than 15%. Tracks would have to adapt! Charge more for admission! Charge more for online access to live racing! This industry needs to get more creative and get everyone a better rate. But if so many of these tracks are being given money through other gaming resources, why is so little of that being passed back to the people making the wagers?

I've seen you ask about rebates a couple times and no one answer, but I'd advise you to do a search on this forum about rebates so you can understand how they work. There are a lot of places to bet legally (well, not in NJ where I am) and quasi-legally and they all offer different percentages of rebates, but explaining all of it would take the thread off topic.

I don't think there's anyone who wouldn't want lower takeout. There are reasons it hasn't happened, the main one being that more than 90% of money is bet off track and racetracks only get a small percentage of the takeout while the bet-takers get most of it. The system would have to be restructured for there to be serious takeout reduction.

[Ted Craven]

Jeff, I have mentioned several times here that AmWager offers pretty good rebates even for the smaller bettor and is highly regarded. Rebates vary depending on track and pool and they do not carry a few tracks (mainly Churchill Downs affiliated). The more you bet, the better rebate you can negotiate. There are some state and country restrictions: https://www.amwager.com/policies-and-disclaimers

AmWager Sign Up

XpressBet also offers rebates usually with fewer state restrictions.

If you sign up for either via NHPLAY.COM your rebates will be a bit better, though you need an existing member who knows you to refer you.

I agree, track takeout should be less across the board. Consider joining HANA (Horseplayers Association of North America) to help support this goal. Meanwhile ...

Good luck!

Ted