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03-15-2020, 02:49 PM
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#61
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Midway, Ky.
Posts: 351
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Well, Race 4 Gulfstream. Joseph's #4 War Giant took little action (9/1). Set fast pressured fractions and never stopped . ??
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03-15-2020, 03:44 PM
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#62
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tholl
Well, Race 4 Gulfstream. Joseph's #4 War Giant took little action (9/1). Set fast pressured fractions and never stopped . ??
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People thinking this would be an instant change were probably going too far. The stuff being used doesn't instantly leave the system as far as I can tell. I think we need to see a more long term sample personally.
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03-15-2020, 03:50 PM
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#63
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paulbenny
Norman McKnight. I was the one who originally brought up that Joseph was probably not clean. I then received some feedback. I am letting the data speak for itself. Clearly, I do not believe he is ethical and for me 0/16 is pretty significant.
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Sorry, not following racing as much as I used to and can't remember the last time I watched Woodbine. But thanks.
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03-15-2020, 03:56 PM
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#64
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Midway, Ky.
Posts: 351
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
People thinking this would be an instant change were probably going too far. The stuff being used doesn't instantly leave the system as far as I can tell. I think we need to see a more long term sample personally.
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Yes, agree with that. Was mostly surprised at lack of betting action, looked like the speed.
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03-15-2020, 04:16 PM
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#65
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
Sorry, not following racing as much as I used to and can't remember the last time I watched Woodbine. But thanks.
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He has run a bunch of horses at Oaklawn but has a pretty bad record and is on the a decent sized losing streak.
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03-15-2020, 04:30 PM
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#66
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NJ
Posts: 3,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
He has run a bunch of horses at Oaklawn but has a pretty bad record and is on the a decent sized losing streak.
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See, told you I haven't been watching. I've mainly been working like crazy trying to be sure I get paid before the companies I work for stop paying people (if that happens) during this crisis. Haven't made a bet in a month.
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03-15-2020, 04:38 PM
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#67
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,512
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
People thinking this would be an instant change were probably going too far. The stuff being used doesn't instantly leave the system as far as I can tell. I think we need to see a more long term sample personally.
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yea, even the guys who immediately stopped doping their horses the day of the incident, still have there horses 'right'.
Currently it's a guessing game. Some guys are rightfully afraid and laying low. A guy or two thinks he's too big to fail. Some others are afraid and in no danger. And some others are continuing to juice, and realize that it's very unlikely for them to be singled out.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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03-16-2020, 12:37 AM
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#68
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,601
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
yea, even the guys who immediately stopped doping their horses the day of the incident, still have there horses 'right'.
Currently it's a guessing game. Some guys are rightfully afraid and laying low. A guy or two thinks he's too big to fail. Some others are afraid and in no danger. And some others are continuing to juice, and realize that it's very unlikely for them to be singled out.
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Old Roberto Diodoro is still on fire @ Oaklawn.
Three bagger today.
What really stands out with his obvious juicing streak is the type of horse he's popping with........he gets his hands on these new horses with slowish form......and voila......it's new money time......his horses are super freaky.
I believe the word is "undetectable".......and Diodoro knows it.
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03-16-2020, 02:46 AM
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#69
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by taxicab
Old Roberto Diodoro is still on fire @ Oaklawn.
Three bagger today.
What really stands out with his obvious juicing streak is the type of horse he's popping with........he gets his hands on these new horses with slowish form......and voila......it's new money time......his horses are super freaky.
I believe the word is "undetectable".......and Diodoro knows it.
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His three winners today:
Race 3, 9 horse. This was her second start in the new barn. Her last three starts on dirt (had a lot of better figure turf races) she had run 68, 70, and 70 with the last one for Diodoro. Today, second time out off a big drop in class, she ran a 77. She won by 10+ lengths but this one wasn't all that eye popping for me.
Race 5, 2 horse. This is a horse that started his career with big promise but never really materialized. He claimed him off Asmussen for 50k and had already run twice. Last start for Asmussen horse ran a 111 figure. He was dismal in his first try, then rebounded to finish a good third with a 108 next time. Today, he was back in for a 50k tag (first tag for Diodoro) and won and ran a 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure. But that doesn't really tell the whole story. The horse had a pretty rough trip. Don't think that 105 really tells how well he ran today. He got claimed away by Chris Richard, will be interesting to follow this one. They made some money on this one I would think since the claim was for the same price he was taken for by Diodoro and he had a win and a third for big purses at Oaklawn in just short of four months.
Race 7, the 8 horse. Another recently acquired by Diodoro. This was his third start since taking over for Shireffs, all at Oaklawn. This was a horse with talent that doesn't win much. He was 1 for 16 coming in but had run as high as a 110 speed figure a while back. His last four for Shireffs, most recent first, were 100, 96, 103, 94. For Diodoro he ran a 107 first time out after leading then getting caught late. Second time out he ran fourth but was beaten just over a length in a very tough allowance race, this time getting a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Today, he won with a 117 speed figure.
Just from these winners, they aren't the huge jumps one sees with some other trainers, but they are noticeable. They also don't seem to be immediate. The first horse improved 7 points, took two starts to do it. The second winner didn't improve numerically, but the trip probably disguised that a little bit. Maybe he would have run around the 111 he ran for Asmussen but that is about it. So in three starts, he got a win but no real improvement. The third winner has basically improved 17 points in just three starts. It was gradual though, not a huge leap, and he only got the one win.
If someone asked me do I suspect this guy of being a Servis or Navarro based on his winners today, I'd say probably not but he'd be on my radar. But overall, I pulled up his stats first time with the trainer this year at Oaklawn. I found it hard to believe he has had 40 already, but he has. Of those he has won with 30% and an ROI of $2.23 per $2 bet. That sets off bells for me. It didn't matter much whether the new horse was a claim or acquired by other means, the numbers were similar.
We'll see what happens, but I don't usually think those kind of numbers are superior horsemanship, especially at a meet like Oaklawn that has big, deep fields full of horses trained by top guys.
Last edited by cj; 03-16-2020 at 04:41 AM.
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03-16-2020, 02:52 AM
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#70
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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I didn't mention the first winner was previously trained by Christophe Clement. So he wasn't exactly getting these horses from Joe Fivepercenter.
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03-16-2020, 01:05 PM
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#71
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 386
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
His three winners today:
Race 3, 9 horse. This was her second start in the new barn. Her last three starts on dirt (had a lot of better figure turf races) she had run 68, 70, and 70 with the last one for Diodoro. Today, second time out off a big drop in class, she ran a 77. She won by 10+ lengths but this one wasn't all that eye popping for me.
Race 5, 2 horse. This is a horse that started his career with big promise but never really materialized. He claimed him off Asmussen for 50k and had already run twice. Last start for Asmussen horse ran a 111 figure. He was dismal in his first try, then rebounded to finish a good third with a 108 next time. Today, he was back in for a 50k tag (first tag for Diodoro) and won and ran a 105 TimeformUS Speed Figure. But that doesn't really tell the whole story. The horse had a pretty rough trip. Don't think that 105 really tells how well he ran today. He got claimed away by Chris Richard, will be interesting to follow this one. They made some money on this one I would think since the claim was for the same price he was taken for by Diodoro and he had a win and a third for big purses at Oaklawn in just short of four months.
Race 7, the 8 horse. Another recently acquired by Diodoro. This was his third start since taking over for Shireffs, all at Oaklawn. This was a horse with talent that doesn't win much. He was 1 for 16 coming in but had run as high as a 110 speed figure a while back. His last four for Shireffs, most recent first, were 100, 96, 103, 94. For Diodoro he ran a 107 first time out after leading then getting caught late. Second time out he ran fourth but was beaten just over a length in a very tough allowance race, this time getting a 114 TimeformUS Speed Figure. Today, he won with a 117 speed figure.
Just from these winners, they aren't the huge jumps one sees with some other trainers, but they are noticeable. They also don't seem to be immediate. The first horse improved 7 points, took two starts to do it. The second winner didn't improve numerically, but the trip probably disguised that a little bit. Maybe he would have run around the 111 he ran for Asmussen but that is about it. So in three starts, he got a win but no real improvement. The third winner has basically improved 17 points in just three starts. It was gradual though, not a huge leap, and he only got the one win.
If someone asked me do I suspect this guy of being a Servis or Navarro based on his winners today, I'd say probably not but he'd be on my radar. But overall, I pulled up his stats first time with the trainer this year at Oaklawn. I found it hard to believe he has had 40 already, but he has. Of those he has won with 30% and an ROI of $2.23 per $2 bet. That sets off bells for me. It didn't matter much whether the new horse was a claim or acquired by other means, the numbers were similar.
We'll see what happens, but I don't usually think those kind of numbers are superior horsemanship, especially at a meet like Oaklawn that has big, deep fields full of horses trained by top guys.
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Agree 100 percent ! You win 1st time at that rate with 10/12 horse fields defies logic.....that would be like a 50 percent hit rate in california !
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03-16-2020, 01:12 PM
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#72
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 768
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Have you seen 1st time or 1st claim Barboza stats ?
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03-16-2020, 01:35 PM
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#73
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistergee
Have you seen 1st time or 1st claim Barboza stats ?
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Not trying to be a jerk here, but this is the last one I'll do. It is part of Formulator or DRF Classic PPs and easy to query for customers. The new Formulator Trainer tool is awesome, I'll leave it at that. This is the past year, new claims or new acquisitions.
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03-16-2020, 01:36 PM
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#74
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by big frank
Agree 100 percent ! You win 1st time at that rate with 10/12 horse fields defies logic.....that would be like a 50 percent hit rate in california !
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I'd prefer to do it via speed figures than just using win percentage personally, I'll try to put that together this week. But even win percentage alone raises flags for me given who he is getting these horses from.
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03-16-2020, 04:12 PM
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#75
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Midway, Ky.
Posts: 351
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mistergee
Have you seen 1st time or 1st claim Barboza stats ?
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Gets hard to do since all his horses were "transferred to another barn " earlier this meet and have now come back as "First time for barn" when really never left. Messes the stats up.
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