Shattered Dreams, or When reality attacks!

[jahura2]

Originally Posted by Tom

Now that the foolish dreams of some have been dashed, who is likely to face reality and find a path to a race horse career in another setting than the TC?

Gr3 races, open stakes for 3yos......one turn races...who might go on to a good career in the coming months and be worth some bets?

Thoughts?

Tom, I kow you were talking mostly about 3yo's but I will be keeping an eye on Chad Browns lightly race 4 yo Backyard Heaven that won the Alysheba stakes on the Oaks day undercard

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Tom

Now that the foolish dreams of some have been dashed, who is likely to face reality and find a path to a race horse career in another setting than the TC?

Gr3 races, open stakes for 3yos......one turn races...who might go on to a good career in the coming months and be worth some bets?

Thoughts?

My Boy Jack - would be deadly if aimed at the Allen Jerkens

Bravazo - might win the Ohio Derby before getting lit up in the Haskell and Travers

Hofburg - might win or place in the Belmont if the field is weak; won't win anything of consequence afterwards

Lone Sailor - another Ohio Derby candidate, but could make noise in the Allen Jerkens

Vino Rosso - another potential weak Belmont winner

Solomini - unplaced in Belmont; time off; returns at 4 with another trainer; can't win an allowance race

Firenze Fire - filler for the Dwyer, Pegasus, Long Branch, Haskell

Bolt D'Oro - unplaced in the Pacific Classic; final race will be Malibu win or lose

Enticed - Dwyer will decide if he goes for Travers or Allen Jerkens

Free Drop Billy - needs time off, but will probably get tossed in the Belmont Derby (he's a half brother to one of the top older horses in Europe)

Noble Indy - will win one or two of the Haskell preps if he doesn't wind up in the dreaded Black Hole called Winstar Farm...

Combatant - might emulate stablemate Lookin At Lee and win an allowance race at 4

Promises Fulfilled - make or break in the Ohio Derby

Mendelssohn - wins the Kelso in a short field, unplaced in the BC Classic, retired

[Robert Fischer]

My Boy Jack = miler?

my impression - He's not very talented. Excellent response. Consistent closer.
Was a threat with maybe 10 others to run 3rd/4th. I thought his Southwest(hope I'm not getting stakes mixed up) was a complete dream trip. I thought he hung a little bit in the one with Lone Sailor and Noble Indy all didn't want to win in.

In the Derby/replay - Had a little bit of trouble early but what you get for closing in 20 horse field. Ran his race (showed a good response and did his close) Good enough for the ol' clunk-up-for-2nd in most Derbies, but this year we had 2 winning type efforts, and a nice race from Audible.
I thought the closers got a good trip as far as 3rd-10th, but that because we had Justify and Good Magic run so well from on the pace, they kind of had to wait for distance to take it's toll on the also-rans to make their impact. They didn't really get to close until we hit the stretch. You had to include him and about 10 others 3rd/4th, but you hoped others like Instilled Regard happened to out-place him due to his underlay price.
He's a guy that's going to make his run, and he needs a good setup to hit the board at all.


consensus? - Jack needs less distance?? I thought the distance helped Jack/Hofburg/Instilled Regard make their impact?

Did you guys think MBJ ran a disappointing race? If that's the case, then that is where the disagreement takes root. I thought he ran his race.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Did you guys think MBJ ran a disappointing race? If that's the case, then that is where the disagreement takes root. I thought he ran his race.

I'm think he'd be effective as a late running sprinter based on his overall form. When he is uncorked appropriately, and is in contention at the top of the stretch, he tends to hang at a route. That sort of running line often begs for a cutback.

As far as the Derby goes, My Boy Jack probably got the 2nd worse ride in the race after Espinoza on Bolt D'Oro.

In what scenario did Desormeaux think that being last with 3 furlongs left to run was a good position (never mind that he hadn't even made contact with the rest of the field at that point)? Sure enough, after wasting time having to make up 4 or 5 lengths to catch the rest of the field, KD tries to pussyfoot his way between horses, has to wait behind the downright obstructive Magnum Moon, and opts instead to just circle the field and go 10 wide into the stretch. We are now at the 1/4 pole and My Boy Jack is still effectively last with 19 horses to pass. Pure folly.

Desormeaux had all the time in the world to get position down the backstretch as it was clear that at least half the field was done after a 1/2 mile or not getting a hold of the track. Had he done this, he could have gone all in after the 3/8s and then we would have seen what My Boy Jack was made of.

I say he would have made a huge bid and hung badly.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

I'm think he'd be effective as a late running sprinter based on his overall form. When he is uncorked appropriately, and is in contention at the top of the stretch, he tends to hang at a route. That sort of running line often begs for a cutback.

As far as the Derby goes, My Boy Jack probably got the 2nd worse ride in the race after Espinoza on Bolt D'Oro.

In what scenario did Desormeaux think that being last with 3 furlongs left to run was a good position (never mind that he hadn't even made contact with the rest of the field at that point)? Sure enough, after wasting time having to make up 4 or 5 lengths to catch the rest of the field, KD tries to pussyfoot his way between horses, has to wait behind the downright obstructive Magnum Moon, and opts instead to just circle the field and go 10 wide into the stretch. We are now at the 1/4 pole and My Boy Jack is still effectively last with 19 horses to pass. Pure folly.

Desormeaux had all the time in the world to get position down the backstretch as it was clear that at least half the field was done after a 1/2 mile or not getting a hold of the track. Had he done this, he could have gone all in after the 3/8s and then we would have seen what My Boy Jack was made of.

I say he would have made a huge bid and hung badly.

I disagree. You don't know ex ante how fast the pace is going to be or if the front runners will come back to you. That makes it tough to ride deep closers in the Derby.

We have seen last to-first moves in the Derby, including on off tracks (e.g., Mine that Bird), and if the pace is fast enough (like it was in 1981), it not only compromises the speed horses but also the stalkers.

Desormeaux, who has given MBJ a couple of great rides this year, executed a logical strategy. Unfortunately, Justify didn't stop.

[menifee]

Comments below:

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

My Boy Jack - would be deadly if aimed at the Allen Jerkens

Bravazo - might win the Ohio Derby before getting lit up in the Haskell and Travers - Agree completely.

Hofburg - might win or place in the Belmont if the field is weak; won't win anything of consequence afterwards. Disagree - this is a nice horse. Belmont then Jim Dandy then Travers

Lone Sailor - another Ohio Derby candidate, but could make noise in the Allen Jerkens - Agree

Vino Rosso - another potential weak Belmont winner. Actually think this is a nice horse as well. Belmont then Haskell then Travers

Solomini - unplaced in Belmont; time off; returns at 4 with another trainer; can't win an allowance race. This horse has not improved off two year old form. He can win a restricted stakes in CA or maybe G3 restricted to 3yos.

Firenze Fire - filler for the Dwyer, Pegasus, Long Branch, Haskell. This is a one turn horse. Allen Jerkens should be the spot - long term plans should be one turn miles going forward

Bolt D'Oro - unplaced in the Pacific Classic; final race will be Malibu win or lose Good horse - should go back to CA and skip remaining TC races. Focus on Delmar stakes schedule. Pacific Classic, etc.

Enticed - Dwyer will decide if he goes for Travers or Allen Jerkens. This is a one turn horse. Allen Jerkens should be the focus. Long term goals should include Met Mile - 2019

Free Drop Billy - needs time off, but will probably get tossed in the Belmont Derby (he's a half brother to one of the top older horses in Europe)Matt Winn at CD agree that Turf may be an option

Noble Indy - will win one or two of the Haskell preps if he doesn't wind up in the dreaded Black Hole called Winstar Farm...Midwest races should be focus. Indiana Derby and 3yo race at Prairie Meadows - still think this horse has some potential

Combatant - might emulate stablemate Lookin At Lee and win an allowance race at 4 Agreed

Promises Fulfilled - make or break in the Ohio DerbyHorse needs the lead - I would focus on 3yo races in Midwest where he might be able to get an easy lead.

Mendelssohn - wins the Kelso in a short field, unplaced in the BC Classic, retired Horse is ultra talented. I would try one more time on dirt in the states. Haskell? If not, get him back to the turf overseas and bring him back for BC Turf

Audible and Good Magic should focus on the Travers and Haskell. I would not bring either back for the Preakness or Belmont. Good Magic wants no part of a mile and a half. Audible could win the Belmont, but I would rather see him freshened for summer stakes.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I disagree. You don't know ex ante how fast the pace is going to be or if the front runners will come back to you. That makes it tough to ride deep closers in the Derby.

One can't surmise the pace scenario prior to the running of the race? Especially in the Kentucky Derby? I find that hard to believe. Why do people even bother to handicap then?

We have seen last to-first moves in the Derby, including on off tracks (e.g., Mine that Bird), and if the pace is fast enough (like it was in 1981), it not only compromises the speed horses but also the stalkers.

Mine That Bird had made up over a dozen lengths and cleared at least half the field by the 1/4 pole. My Boy Jack had passed 2 horses and made up 2 lengths...

Like My Boy Jack in several other starts, Mine That Bird was near the lead by the stretch call.

Monarchos, Orb, Giacomo, and Strike The Gold all had similar running lines to Mine That Bird in their respective Derby victories.

Desormeaux, who has given MBJ a couple of great rides this year, executed a logical strategy. Unfortunately, Justify didn't stop.

He didn't need to wait until the 1/8th pole to get by Bolt D'Oro, Noble Indy, etc. They stopped well in advance of the stretch. He clearly left the horse way too much to do.

[clicknow]

ANY decent G2 or G3 or G1 horse, or even an up-and-comer late bloomer, who isn't prematurely sent to the breeding shed before racing to at least 5 years old.

Unfortunately, that automatically eliminates a huge % of really good horses.

[minethatbird08]

Hofburg: He will need some pace to run into but will have a big win at some point and will finish in the $ often.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by menifee

Comments below:
Audible and Good Magic should focus on the Travers and Haskell. I would not bring either back for the Preakness or Belmont. Good Magic wants no part of a mile and a half. Audible could win the Belmont, but I would rather see him freshened for summer stakes.

Good Magic has the pedigree and the running style to win the Belmont. His move is fairly push-button and so can be timed appropriately for a race like the Belmont. However, he is a small horse and perhaps such a race would take a lot out of him.

Audible, on the other hand, has no pedigree for 12 furlongs. He clunked up for 3rd in the Derby without threatening and was gifted the 9 furlong Florida Derby with the huge pace collapse. Were he to have to engage horses at the top of the stretch in a race like the Belmont, I think he'd fold. Ultimately, I think he'd be more effective as a miler. Should handle the turf, too.

[clicknow]

In the Belmont, last 6F needs to be slower than 1st half. I will be looking at those horses.

[minethatbird08]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

Good Magic has the pedigree and the running style to win the Belmont. His move is fairly push-button and so can be timed appropriately for a race like the Belmont. However, he is a small horse and perhaps such a race would take a lot out of him.

Audible, on the other hand, has no pedigree for 12 furlongs. He clunked up for 3rd in the Derby without threatening and was gifted the 9 furlong Florida Derby with the huge pace collapse. Were he to have to engage horses at the top of the stretch in a race like the Belmont, I think he'd fold. Ultimately, I think he'd be more effective as a miler. Should handle the turf, too.

Chad Brown seems to think Good Magic is not a 12f horse fwiw. I’m guessing they are weighing the Preakness vs resting now and pointing towards Haskell, Travers, GCGC, Breeders cup.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by minethatbird08

Chad Brown seems to think Good Magic is not a 12f horse fwiw. I’m guessing they are weighing the Preakness vs resting now and pointing towards Haskell, Travers, GCGC, Breeders cup.

Yes, I'm not going to second guess the trainer, I'm just going off the horse's form. Obviously, Brown has more intimate details on the horse. I just don't think his pedigree or his running lines suggest he won't stay 12 furlongs.

It would be interesting to hear Brown's reasons. I think some of it is the colt's small size. I also get the feeling Brown is simply not enamored with the Belmont Stakes as an important race in general, never mind what horse he has.

He held Cloud Computing out of the race last year as well because it might have derailed the rest of the horse's campaign. In retrospect, it might have been better to strike while the iron was hot with that colt.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

I disagree. You don't know ex ante how fast the pace is going to be or if the front runners will come back to you. That makes it tough to ride deep closers in the Derby.

We have seen last to-first moves in the Derby, including on off tracks (e.g., Mine that Bird), and if the pace is fast enough (like it was in 1981), it not only compromises the speed horses but also the stalkers.

Desormeaux, who has given MBJ a couple of great rides this year, executed a logical strategy. Unfortunately, Justify didn't stop.

That was my impression as well.


before the race - My Boy Jack was not eligible to run a 'derby winning' type of performance. He was going to need both a dream-trip and a pace collapse (think Mine That Bird or Giacomo).

after the race - Justify ran a huge derby winning performance. Good Magic ran well enough to win most derbies although it hit him in last 1/16th. Audible ran well enough to hit the board in most derbies, and as well as a Super Saver kind of 'derby winning' race, and managed to almost beat Good Magic in literal form.

So no pace-collapse happened, and 3 horses ran faster than My Boy Jack has any realistic hope of running.

That leaves 17 horses.

He finished ahead of 16 of those 17.

Thought it was a good ride, and that he ran his race.

[Afleet]

Originally Posted by Tom

Now that the foolish dreams of some have been dashed, who is likely to face reality and find a path to a race horse career in another setting than the TC?

Gr3 races, open stakes for 3yos......one turn races...who might go on to a good career in the coming months and be worth some bets?

Thoughts?

Think Lone Sailor will turn out to be a good one. Magnum Moon was one big, good looking horse-he should do some damage