Mendelssohn at 8-1 vs Justify at 3-1 in KD

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by exactatom

Mendelssohn does not have to have the lead. In the race before the Dubai race, he was content to lay off the lead and make a stretch run. He also has a turf background which shies away from speed unless it is loose on the lead speed which Mendelssohn does not have.

I believe the connections saw how the Dubai track all season long (not just the night of the UAE Derby) was speed favoring and opted to take to the front.

I just do not see how a horse who made his career debut in mid February is going to be able to get 10 furlongs in early May. My thoughts have nothing to do with any curse, but rather based on a proper foundation and development of a horse.

I more less agree with everything you said.

I do think they would prefer to have the lead to avoid the kickback. Of course how you draw, and more importantly how you break is going to change the race.

Like I have said, the best horse often does not win the Derby.

See horses like Afleet Alex and Holy Bull as prime examples.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by LoneF

The only reason Justify is the favorite right now is because so many people are so emotionally invested in him being the next American Pharoah they are betting with their emotions not brains. It’s the same reason Gronkowski will probably go off as the 7th or 8th betting choice even though he by far had the least chance to win as any horse that will run in the derby. People just like his name because of Gronk the football player . It’s people betting with their emotions rather than brains. Justify is clearly not anywhere near the racehorse Mendelssohn is ...

Curlin, who was immensely talented was the 7/2 ML fav for the 2007 derby (went off at 5-1 and finshed 3rd to Street Sense and Hard Spun). He also came into the derby with this kind of huge hype. Won the preakness and finished 2nd in the Belmont.

The hype will force the price down to a underlay on Justify. Similarly Mendelssohn massive win will be also be hype. Yeah they could win but why bet an underlay the tourists will be on.

Allan

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

Maybe it's lost on you the fillies in the Santa Ysabel, Santa Margarita, and The Santa Anita Oaks all at the same track during the same meet hit the 6F pole faster than Justify. 1:12.6 was modest at best. Feel free to take your favorite speed numbers hook line and sinker. If they worked so well every race then Andrew Beyer would be 30-0 picking the Derby winner instead of 0-30.

How you just compared the wet fast sealed track of the Santa Ysabel to last Saturday just shows how comparing raw race times is flawed. Those two tracks were not close to the same.

Its very easy to pick against a horse going into the Derby and say "see I told ya" cause 19 of them are going to lose, so I think your probably going to be right...but not for the reasons the horse is slow from a pace standpoint based on the winter santa anita meeting raw times.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think Mendelssohn' performance is being overrated. He's a very good horse, but Meydan was very kind to speed that day.

I really wasn't looking at the order of finish.

I rewatched the UAE a few times and was looking at Mendolssohn's big gobbling stride.....feet barely touched the ground.

SA and UAE are both somewhat speed favoring, except that Meydan track is very similar to Churchill in track consistency and depth. Also known for producing a lot of kickback, so Moore was certainly smart to *send*.

For a horse who never raced on dirt, I'm somewhat impressed with Mendelssohn's 18-1/2 length win and track record @9.5F, being 1/2 brother to Beholder (so he has enough of a dirt pedigree in there) and the fact that he has already carried 134 lbs and 126 lbs. And he seems to ship well.


As I said in another topic, I also give weight to the BC Turf where M beat Flameaway, Untamed Domain, Catholic Boy, My Boy Jack and Snapper Sinclair....all of whom ran either 1st , 2nd, or 3rd on dirtin U.S. graded stakes races next out. So it's not like we have nothing to compare him to as was the case with other euro runners in the past who had not raced against any of our KY Derby entrants.

I just thought the huge gulf between giving M 30-1 and Justify 3-1 was a bit grudging to M. That's a pretty big difference considering.....

All that said, I'm picking neither of them to win the KY Derby right now, so....

[GMB@BP]

Mendelssohn is 5/1, Justify 4/1 in current betting....there is not much separating these two, certainly not 8/1 to 3/1

[boys at tosconova]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Mendelssohn is 5/1, Justify 4/1 in current betting....there is not much separating these two, certainly not 8/1 to 3/1

mendy has to take a boatload of cash. we've never seen a UAE horse like this in the derby before.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

mendy has to take a boatload of cash. we've never seen a UAE horse like this in the derby before.

Right now he is the fav in the euro markets, he wont be here but he is going to take considerable cash. If Magnum Moon does not fire I see 5/1 max.

[menifee]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Mendelssohn is 5/1, Justify 4/1 in current betting....there is not much separating these two, certainly not 8/1 to 3/1

I already gave the link for one site. Here's Wynn's latest odds. You can go and bet it now.

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads...iple_Crown.pdf

[Robert Fischer]

Looks like Mendelssohn can sit in the front half of the field and make a good run.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Twitter

3 fastest JSR's ever!!!

[Vinnie]

Originally Posted by Tom

Now that is ridiculous.
Justify ran a 140 pace figure easily and held on nicely in the lane.

Mendelssohn will be looking at Baffert's Boy's Butt all the way around.

Nicely put Tom.... To watch Justify work is pretty much like poetry in motion. As Mick Ruis Bolt D'Oro's trainer said he is just about as smooth as you want to be in a horse very reminiscent of American Pharoah who worked like nobody's business.

[señorclipclop]

Has anyone tried to adjust Mendelssohn's fractions due to being timed from the gate?

By a rough calculation, you can shave about 0.84 seconds off his first 1/4, if you use the 63ft run-up time from the SA Derby.

[cj]

Originally Posted by señorclipclop

Has anyone tried to adjust Mendelssohn's fractions due to being timed from the gate?

By a rough calculation, you can shave about 0.84 seconds off his first 1/4, if you use the 63ft run-up time from the SA Derby.

I have pars for Meydan and did figures for the dirt races on the card, pace and final time. You can find them here:

http://horseplayersassociation.org/apr18issue.pdf

[CincyHorseplayer]

Originally Posted by cj

I have pars for Meydan and did figures for the dirt races on the card, pace and final time. You can find them here:

http://horseplayersassociation.org/apr18issue.pdf

CJ I added the last 5 furlongs together and got a sub 61. Does that impress you even with adjustments?(half mile to end of race).

[cj]

Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer

CJ I added the last 5 furlongs together and got a sub 61. Does that impress you even with adjustments?(half mile to end of race).

I've learned not to look at segments of races to judge a horse. No segment really works in isolation unless you are trying to predict the pace and which horses might lead. Every segment in the race has some effect on those which follow it, so I prefer to look at the pieces together.

He obviously ran a very good race. The bias is the tough part to judge. I won't be dismissing him in three weeks.