Did Restoring Hope help Justify tactically in the Belmont...?

[Reggae]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

The key decision was by Saez on Bravazo. If he sends his horse RH can't do a thing about it.

That isn't how Bravazo has ever run...

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

The Tenfold issue was admittedly minor at best and certainly it would be dubious to say that it was intentional, but he still had to steady out of there to avoid a crush.

However, whatever the tactics were on Bravazo there is no denying he was mugged out of his spot outside Justify's flank and forced inwards by Restoring Hope.


This is half the story.

Yes, I agree with you that Restoring Hope was very much likely to be near the first flight based on past performances.

However, in what circumstance would you expect him to go 6-wide into the first turn and then come back inwards to the 2-path in the middle of the first turn is a question for Carnac the Magnificent.

Baffert said Sunday he wanted Restoring Hope lay right off Justify.

“The plan was to sit off Justify,” said Baffert, who trains Restoring Hope for Gary and Mary West. “He got really rank with him. He had to get away from him so they wouldn’t go so fast.”

Pretty much tells the story there...Florent put RH right where he was told, but when he gauged that they might be going too fast (for the good of both of them, but primarily for the benefit of Justify), Florent took RH to the outside (to get away from him (Justify, that is)...

But why would being 2nd off Justify’s flank be the strategy...? If they would be going for the win with RH, wouldn’t they WANT to let Noble Indy contest with Justify and maybe tire them both...?

Then they could close late into whoever was left from the pace meltdown/ pressure since they must have known that they couldn’t win with RH going wire to wire against Justify and Noble Indy...And if Baffert’s plan all along was to roll right alongside and behind Justify, why were they owners of RH unhappy with the ride and questioning Florent’s plan for winning?

[metro]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

The Tenfold issue was admittedly minor at best and certainly it would be dubious to say that it was intentional, but he still had to steady out of there to avoid a crush.

However, whatever the tactics were on Bravazo there is no denying he was mugged out of his spot outside Justify's flank and forced inwards by Restoring Hope.


This is half the story.

Yes, I agree with you that Restoring Hope was very much likely to be near the first flight based on past performances.

However, in what circumstance would you expect him to go 6-wide into the first turn and then come back inwards to the 2-path in the middle of the first turn is a question for Carnac the Magnificent.

Saez had a 1/4 mile to get the spot he wanted and had to have seen Geroux and RH to his outside as they worked toward the 1st turn. Poor perception on his part if he thought Geroux would just stay wide

Bravazo got a perfect trip all things considered, sure they would have liked a trip more similar to the Preakness but from his post in order to insure that they HAD to use horse to get it. They didn't. Instead they saved ground until the turn for home and still got beat 8 lengths.

.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Yea, thats what I mean, something that had no impact on the finish is the central focus while certainly the goal seems to be to take away something from the horse, which I think is wrong.

No one knows how the race would've gone had Justify been pressed through faster fractions, so to assume that he would've won regardless isn't correct.

He looked so good because he had everything perfect on the front through easy fractions.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

No one knows how the race would've gone had Justify been pressed through faster fractions, so to assume that he would've won regardless isn't correct.

He looked so good because he had everything perfect on the front through easy fractions.

We have different ideas on easy fractions,

Derby 170
Preakness 140
Belmont 150

Those are the three half mile split pace figures.

I get what your saying "look if they could have cooked Justify with a 170 pace figure dueling head and head he might of lost"

Ok, I agree.

[Reggae]

Originally Posted by metro

Saez had a 1/4 mile to get the spot he wanted and had to have seen Geroux and RH to his outside as they worked toward the 1st turn. Poor perception on his part if he thought Geroux would just stay wide

Bravazo got a perfect trip all things considered, sure they would have liked a trip more similar to the Preakness but from his post in order to insure that they HAD to use horse to get it. They didn't. Instead they saved ground until the turn for home and still got beat 8 lengths.

.

Saez didn't save ground he had no where to go. No way to move up after Resorting Hope boxed him in after the first 1/6th mile. That's not Bravazo's race. Bravazo was outplayed, he didn't have a perfect trip and I can't see why you keep saying that. You simply must not know the horse.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

That is a separate, and I agree, issue that should be addressed, but never will be due to the money it would cost.

Are people saying that the best horse didnt win the race?

No, the best horse won the race, hands down. But I would have like to have seen Noble Indy have the chance. And if he had gone head to head with Justify, IMO, the same thing thing would have happened to him as the other two that tried it. It also might have set up a pretty good finish with Gronk. But that is all speculation because Noble Indy was cut off by Restoring Hope.

Repole stated his plan and Baffert responded, and in doing so, both ended up screwing the public. The people who played these two horses footed the bill. And if I agree or disagree with that play has no bearing on the situation. I had Noble Indy played in second. As for costing too much money, I can't say I agree with that. It might cost them a little handle, because the trainers involved control a lot of good horses. But as we have seen, the horsemen and tracks putting handle in front of the image of horse racing has gotten them nowhere.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by jay68802

No, the best horse won the race, hands down. But I would have like to have seen Noble Indy have the chance. And if he had gone head to head with Justify, IMO, the same thing thing would have happened to him as the other two that tried it. It also might have set up a pretty good finish with Gronk. But that is all speculation because Noble Indy was cut off by Restoring Hope.

Repole stated his plan and Baffert responded, and in doing so, both ended up screwing the public. The people who played these two horses footed the bill. And if I agree or disagree with that play has no bearing on the situation. I had Noble Indy played in second. As for costing too much money, I can't say I agree with that. It might cost them a little handle, because the trainers involved control a lot of good horses. But as we have seen, the horsemen and tracks putting handle in front of the image of horse racing has gotten them nowhere.

If I understand the onwerships/trainers there would have been a 6 horse entry in the Derby (if same trainers and ownerships had to be coupled)

Vino Rosso Noble Indy Justify Audible Solomini and Magnum Moon

That would have cost CDI a fortune.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Reggae

That isn't how Bravazo has ever run...

True but it was a 1 1/2 mile race.

[dilanesp]

The thing regulators might consider is allowing a horse to get DQ'd if they get assistance.

Not an issue here but if something more blatant occurs like an intentional foul in the stretch this could be a big problem.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

The thing regulators might consider is allowing a horse to get DQ'd if they get assistance.

Not an issue here but if something more blatant occurs like an intentional foul in the stretch this could be a big problem.

Does contact need to be made, in this case I am not sure there was any contact, just horse placement and when a horse was asked (early in RH's case), or are we asking the Stewards to make a determination on "intent" right after a race, because thats a slippery slope given what I have seen from stewards.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

If I understand the onwerships/trainers there would have been a 6 horse entry in the Derby (if same trainers and ownerships had to be coupled)

Vino Rosso Noble Indy Justify Audible Solomini and Magnum Moon

That would have cost CDI a fortune.

And the point being what? Handle is more important than image? The tracks and horsemen involved are more important that the customer?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by jay68802

And the point being what? Handle is more important than image? The tracks and horsemen involved are more important that the customer?

point being people dont part with that kind of money in todays day and age, i do not think it will happen.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Does contact need to be made, in this case I am not sure there was any contact, just horse placement and when a horse was asked (early in RH's case), or are we asking the Stewards to make a determination on "intent" right after a race, because thats a slippery slope given what I have seen from stewards.

If there's an actual foul. Not just herding.

[Andy Asaro]

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