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View Poll Results: Do you bet Justify to win/single on Belmont day or do you spread?
Yes, he's a single and wins Triple Crown. 19 22.89%
No, I'm gonna use him but spread 28 33.73%
Toss 33 39.76%
Doesn't run 3 3.61%
Voters: 83. This poll is closed

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Old 05-20-2018, 08:49 PM   #31
MadVindication
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Originally Posted by papillon View Post
The horse was on fumes. His tank was empty. He looked terrible after the race. Smith repeatedly said the horse was tired. He didn't back pedal and change his story until later.

If the horse wasn't Justify, "almost beaten" wouldn't be a controversial criticism. It doesn't matter if you know where the finish line is, you still have to get there, and with another 2 lengths, he almost certainly wouldn't have.

He wasn't Affirmed battling Alydar or Sunday Silence battling Easy Goer down the stretch. He was battling a horse running against his preferred style, a horse likely uncomfortable from the get go, who still only lost by a length despite that fact.

He is a horse that has on three tracks now in three states run over a 1:36 mile, and has been physically exhausted at the end of every race. In these three races, the closer he's gotten to 1:36, the more exhausted he's gotten. He isn't even displaying the engery distribution of a top miler.

He's winning. He deserves praise for that just as did Magnum Moon. But I saw the horse I've thought he was all along yesterday, which is a good, honest horse. The results yesterday, give credence to those who view the Derby as a race with umpteen caveats. Yesterday, gives credence to those who said beating Bolt O'Oro was perhaps not the best measure of greatness.

I understand, I think the hype is/was overrated --but it has been well-played hype and perhaps good for the sport (for a small time, anyway).

So maybe Justify wins the Belmont as slimly as the Preakness, so what? He still wins. But I don't think that there's going to be a speed duel at the belmont. And with that distance I don't think that they'll have Justify keep the lead at all costs. They're more likely to have a handshake with the owners/trainers of whatever horse is most competition to settle for second than risk a speed duel running and have either of them end up like Good Magic.

Magnum Moon had the criticism that he tending to go wide down the stretch. The only thing people can find with Justify is that he isn't as good as "other champions."

Of course, odds and horses running depending, I will bet against but only because I'm a gambler, I don't have to spend much, and not with any expectations that I'm building winning tickets. Sure, I believe that fresh horses will be a risk to take the race and it makes sense to bet with some trends.

Someone on here said that as long as Bravazo has four legs Lukas will run him. As long as Bravazo has four legs I will bet him "Gotta be in it to win it" is true.
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Old 05-21-2018, 12:31 AM   #32
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I think Justify is a better horse than Pharoah but I don't think he'll win the TC. You need both skill and luck to do that. Pharoah not only faced weaker competition but was not seriously pressed in the Belmont.
Before Pharoah , there were 11 failed attempts. There are some people who have made a living on tossing the horse attempting to win the 3rd leg. Remember Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Smarty Jones, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, and Big Brown?
The definition of an underlay, ok, I will still use him but not as a single.
You making some great points right up until your last sentence. If Justify is the definition of an underlay (of which I completely concur) why would you bet him at all?
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Old 05-21-2018, 10:38 AM   #33
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You making some great points right up until your last sentence. If Justify is the definition of an underlay (of which I completely concur) why would you bet him at all?
Doesn't it depend on the pool? It is tough to find, for example, a P5 where all five horses are overlays. It doesn't mean the bet as a whole won't be an overlay. Am I misunderstanding?
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Old 05-21-2018, 11:40 AM   #34
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Doesn't it depend on the pool? It is tough to find, for example, a P5 where all five horses are overlays. It doesn't mean the bet as a whole won't be an overlay. Am I misunderstanding?
Valid point, but a low priced underlay will have a much greater affect on the overlay/underlay of a horizontal than a horse at 6-1 that should be at 8-1. In long horizontals (P4-P6) I make tickets based on coverage probabilities and then play or not play based on the perceived value of the entire ticket.

If certainly wouldn't play Justify on top of any exacta, trifecta, superfecta or as part of any DD or P3 if I thought he was an underlay.
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Old 05-21-2018, 01:08 PM   #35
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Think of all those $2 Win souvenir tickets on Justify....

I will probably just play two overlays to win. Maybe only go as deep as an exacta. I will play 10-cent supers if they are available for that race.
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Old 05-21-2018, 05:47 PM   #36
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Think of all those $2 Win souvenir tickets on Justify....

I will probably just play two overlays to win. Maybe only go as deep as an exacta. I will play 10-cent supers if they are available for that race.
Off topic, but what will happen to the value of those American pharaoh win tickets if justify wins? Will they always have value because he was the first in 37 years? DRF sent me one in the mail that year a few weeks after the race
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Old 05-21-2018, 05:56 PM   #37
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I'll gladly play against 4/5 chalk in the Belmont. Excluding AP, 9 of the last Triple Crown bids were spoiled by a horse that did not compete in all three legs, what Chrome's former owner called "cheaters". I'll look for fresh legs like Hofburg, Vino Rosso, or even Blended Citizen.
My thoughts exactly.
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Old 05-21-2018, 07:50 PM   #38
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Toss.

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Old 05-21-2018, 08:50 PM   #39
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Old 05-21-2018, 09:57 PM   #40
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I hope Audible runs, because he will take money & I don't think he will hit the board.
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Old 05-21-2018, 10:06 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by MadVindication View Post
I understand, I think the hype is/was overrated --but it has been well-played hype and perhaps good for the sport (for a small time, anyway).

So maybe Justify wins the Belmont as slimly as the Preakness, so what? He still wins. But I don't think that there's going to be a speed duel at the belmont. And with that distance I don't think that they'll have Justify keep the lead at all costs. They're more likely to have a handshake with the owners/trainers of whatever horse is most competition to settle for second than risk a speed duel running and have either of them end up like Good Magic.

Magnum Moon had the criticism that he tending to go wide down the stretch. The only thing people can find with Justify is that he isn't as good as "other champions."

Of course, odds and horses running depending, I will bet against but only because I'm a gambler, I don't have to spend much, and not with any expectations that I'm building winning tickets. Sure, I believe that fresh horses will be a risk to take the race and it makes sense to bet with some trends.

Someone on here said that as long as Bravazo has four legs Lukas will run him. As long as Bravazo has four legs I will bet him "Gotta be in it to win it" is true.
TBH I don't think a TC will really make any difference for the sport. We just had one. Made no difference. American Pharoah was kicked to the curb by Arrogate-mania like he was a big hunk of horse manure stuck on everybody's shoe. All that did was say the TC ain't as big as one big ass Timeform rating and race call announcing the reincarnation of Man O'War.

I have to amit, the schadenfreude from that whole episode was pretty sweet.

TC or not, Justify will be gone by next Feb at the latest. These annual popularity contests are what is killing the sport. If you say, "meh," as opposed to letting yourself be manipulated by breeders into their marketing campaigns you are sneered at, because that is what this all is, a marketing campaign. Do you really think Bob Baffert really doesn't know that both Silver Charm and Real Quiet ran the Preakness a second faster than Justify, or that all of his Preakness winners but one ran it faster than Justify, when he says he's never had a horse run it as fast as Justify did?

You know the race that made me the happiest this week, the one that really is good for the sport? Soi Phet's win. Give me a 10 year old vet still cashing checks over some blink and he's gone, now horse, 3yo messiah.

I have no doubt there will be a script for the Belmont, a gentleman's handshake as you say. I'm pretty sure that there was for the Preakness, except Good Magic was supposed to get 2nd, not 4th. Why this doesn't bother you, I don't understand.

Bravazo has been the mystery for me, he's the only horse I really, really got wrong.

My knock against both Magnum Moon and Justify are the same, I am not convinced they are exceptionally fast horses, but MM kept winning, until he didn't. And Justify has kept winning. Win streaks in any sport are hard. So I always tip a hat to them.
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Old 05-21-2018, 11:57 PM   #42
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Ummmm...yeah...ok....whatever bro.
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Old 05-22-2018, 12:02 AM   #43
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Originally Posted by Redboard View Post
I think Justify is a better horse than Pharoah but I don't think he'll win the TC. You need both skill and luck to do that. Pharoah not only faced weaker competition but was not seriously pressed in the Belmont.
Before Pharoah , there were 11 failed attempts. There are some people who have made a living on tossing the horse attempting to win the 3rd leg. Remember Spectacular Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Silver Charm, Smarty Jones, Charismatic, War Emblem, Funny Cide, and Big Brown?
The definition of an underlay, ok, I will still use him but not as a single.
That's right, in the long run you're better off taking a shot against these big favorites in the Belmont. With Secretariat and Seattle Slew, it was different, they were freakish super horses that looked unbeatable and looked like a cinch for the triple crown after they won the Derby. But the other horses you mentioned, the only one I picked to win the Belmont was Smarty Jones and I wasn't confident.
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Old 05-22-2018, 08:10 AM   #44
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If you think he is the likely winner then why not play him. Looking for value is bogus as the preakness tri returned $148 for a $1 so there is "value" playing the favorite. Horzontals are also an option as it would only take one tote buster or a beaten 4/5 to make P3 and P4 a good option. I will probably play him as a single in the P4 for $1 and then come back with a saver with Bravazo, Audible and one other for .50.
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Old 05-22-2018, 09:18 AM   #45
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If you think he is the likely winner then why not play him.
I play the exchange. Price is EVERYTHING. Repeat PRICE is EVERYTHING.

Justify is the most likely winner of the BELMONT, there is little debate in my mind about that. so what price are you willing to accept on him. 1-10, 1-5, 3-10.....what. It all comes down to Price.

Price. Price. Price.

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