How do you pick your longshots?

[Canadian]

When you pick a longshot to win a race, are you (or should you) saying that this horse is most likely to win the race (from your perspective) and they just happen to be a longshot...... Or..... Do you say to yourself, "this horse is 15-1, he probably won't win, but she should win at a rate of about 1 in 13"..... thus giving you an edge.

What would be the correct approach to take?

[46zilzal]

make an odds line and bet the overlays: bigger the better. Simple

[Overlay]

I always go with edge as a criterion. If the horse that I happen to like based on degree of edge is also my top selection (that is, the horse that I consider most likely to win), so much the better. (Of course, it's easier for a horse with lower true odds (according to one's personal line) to offer a greater comparative edge than a horse with higher true odds.)

Also, if you base wager size on degree of overlay, you would generally end up betting more on a horse with lower true odds that's going off at long toteboard odds, than you would on a horse with higher true odds that's going off at long toteboard odds.

[The Judge]

player you can't be affaird of high odds. You know going in the chances of all things breaking your way aren't very good. If you think the horses in front will fade and there is one closer in the race and he is 50-1 the highest odds on the board, so what. Thats how you see the race others think 1 of the front runners will hold on. If your analysis of the race is correct and its a 10 horse field your odds maybe less then 50-1 but your horse is still a longshot no matter what odds criteria you use. Alot of things have to go right for your horse and real wrong for the rest of the field.

One way I look for a longshot is I look for the horse that just seems out of place, why is this horse in this race has somebody gone crazy. If I see this I am interested and will take a long hard look.

[The Judge]

that I have with odds line made by handicappers. If I want to bet a horse I know going in that the horse can't be 15-1 on my odds line. The horse will have to be 6-1 or 7-1 to get a bet so is this horses odds then subjectively lowered so that it makes it more possible that you will get to bet the horse? If its a computer generate odds line this shouldn't be a problem if the computer picks the pace line.

IF THIS IS STRAYING FROM THE TOPIC THEN WAIT A WHILE TO POST A REPLY, 46zilzal and Overlay.

[DRIVEWAY]

Originally Posted by Canadian

When you pick a longshot to win a race, are you (or should you) saying that this horse is most likely to win the race (from your perspective) and they just happen to be a longshot...... Or..... Do you say to yourself, "this horse is 15-1, he probably won't win, but she should win at a rate of about 1 in 13"..... thus giving you an edge.

What would be the correct approach to take?

There's no perfect way to analyze longshot probabilities. But you can set a minimum odds before you place a bet.

What I do is simple. Everyday I handicap with Procaps. Look at all the claimers on dirt and all the claimers and allowance races on Turf. Identify those races with longshots in the top three. Look at the horses running lines for reasonableness and if satisfied add to the wager list for the day.

Yesterday had 31 possible bets. Thirteen met the odds criteria with one winner. Of the eigtheen wagers passed, there were 3 winners.

One day last week there were 23 wagers with no winners. Unfortunately 4 horses ran second that day. Obviously, there will be frustrating results. Horses just below yours minimum odds winning and others running second with nice place mutuals.

I keep a journal of each day and download the results for each track. Occasionally, I'll review my approach but have stayed the course of just placing win bets.

Whatever you wind up doing, keep quality records, maintain selection consistency and minimize any wagers until your satisfied with your approach.

The bigger the minimum odds the greater the runouts will be.

Good Luck.

[cmoore]

First thing is you should like the horse for some reason..Lone Speed, Lone Closer with a ton of front speed race..Pedigree, Great workout tab, Has faced much tougher and the public doesn't realize it...There's countless other reasons..

Picking long shots is much harder then picking 3-1's or less for the beginner or even average handicapper..The reason being is that the 3-1's positives are much more obvious to everyone..The long shot pick probably has 1 maybe 2 angles in it's favor that the public doesn't consider or just over looks..Try to find that one or two angle horse who should be 6-1 and is going off at 10-1..

Patience is key..It gets me on occasions..You keep firing and before you know it..your on a 15-20 bet losing streak..Then you either start firing on any old long shot..Or even worse you lower your standards and start hammering 5/2's trying to get your money back for the day..Don't do it..

[kenwoodallpromos]

I say "The morning line maker took about 10 minutes to figure odds on ALL the runners, and dismisses the longshots quickly to move on to the contenders. I look for what the M/Ler missed. Usually on the extreme left or right side of the PP's (race spacing or type, start of race, competition, comments, record at certain distance or type race. A big stakes race recently at 1 1/2 miles at Belmont was won by a longshot who had won a lower class race there- at 1 1/2 miles!
You have to look at what makes a longshot an overlay- weather, record, scratches, early speed, etc; THEN figure what its odds should be.
A favorite who finished place the last 4 races is a false favorite waiting to get beat. A KY Deby closer at the 2 post is looking to get beat.

[Overlay]

Originally Posted by The Judge

If I want to bet a horse I know going in that the horse can't be 15-1 on my odds line. The horse will have to be 6-1 or 7-1 to get a bet so is this horses odds then subjectively lowered so that it makes it more possible that you will get to bet the horse?

Another way to avoid that problem (besides having the computer make the line) is to figure the line yourself, but base it only on objective, quantitative data (as a computer would). Do the calculations and let the resulting probabilities speak for themselves, without subjective adjustment (which makes it easier to maintain betting discipline).

[InFront]

Originally Posted by Canadian

When you pick a longshot to win a race, are you (or should you) saying that this horse is most likely to win the race (from your perspective) and they just happen to be a longshot...... Or..... Do you say to yourself, "this horse is 15-1, he probably won't win, but she should win at a rate of about 1 in 13"..... thus giving you an edge.

What would be the correct approach to take?

I would say in general most good handicappers very seldom will pick a higher odds horse based cause it is "most likely to win the race" but play it due to it's higher odds. The whole concept of winning and profiting in racing is very simple. You must play horses that you estimate will win at a higher rate when compared to how the public actually bets them. But since the public are some of the most accurate people around as a group around accomplishing this task is much easier to say than do.

As far as betting on longshots goes. Think about it, this horse is a longshot for some reason according to the public. Not saying it can't win or at it's final odds may now make it a good overlay or good bet.

In racing it is tough to make profits playing low odds stuff simply cause even though your win% will be decent it is tough for your average payoffs to be high enough overall. Just the same it is almost just as difficult to show profits playing mainly higher odds horses cause while your average payoff would be good your win% will suffer greatly. But I would say overall the public makes more mistakes in higher odds horses than they do in lower odds horses.

You must consider facts that is 80% of all races are won by the top 4 favorites, 80% of all races are won by horses paying less than $16, horses with MLO over 10/1 win only 8% of all races that run, etc. So when you are handicapping any race/horse you must always consider every part of this game and seperate facts (things you definitely know from past research) from fiction (things you don't know).

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by DRIVEWAY

I keep a journal of each day and download the results for each track. Occasionally, I'll review my approach but have stayed the course of just placing win bets.

Whatever you wind up doing, keep quality records, maintain selection consistency and minimize any wagers until your satisfied with your approach.

Good Luck.

Very sage advice.
In my journal I keep notes re: trips, and trainer patterns.
I also use the free DRF Horse Watch to e mail me when my suspected long shot is entered again. If it is a "good fit" with respect to the upcoming field, for Pace and distance, it may be a play. Don't accept too short odds though if the general public is all over it too. Trainers with small stables might want longer odds and may wait until next time for the "send."

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by InFront

You must consider facts that is 80% of all races are won by the top 4 favorites, 80% of all races are won by horses paying less than $16, horses with MLO over 10/1 win only 8% of all races that run, etc. .

True. But that still leaves 20 % that can win at higher odds.
Effectively 1 in 5 races defies the above rule.
That's where good scores are made on Daily Doubles and Pick 3's, if you have a "logical long shot."

[fmolf]

i think you need to make an odds line first so you can figure the overlays you like....i have found that most 25/1 and higher horses are actually underlays an should be much greater odds....to actually select longshots i like to look for subtle things like a large gain in the middle fraction when his last few races before last one he has steadily lost ground...or back class coupled with a track change /jockey switch......sometimes i find them thru body language and paddock inspection this is easier at smaller tracks with cheaper animals!I am most comfortable with longshots in the 10/1-20/1 range when i believe they should be lower

[Greyfox]

Originally Posted by fmolf

i think you need to make an odds line first so you can figure the overlays you like....i have found that most 25/1 and higher horses are actually underlays an should be much greater odds....

Accepting the above bold premise as true, that the 25-1 horse should be 50-1 by your odds prediction, would that stop you from putting a few bucks on the nose of it because it was "underlayed according to your odds theory?"
At any track a double digit odds runner that has an "angle chance" to win,
should be considered as a possible flat bet play.

"If" I see something there in the past performances, I think 25-1 is an outstanding opportunity to make a play - win or place. My odds line wouldn't deter me. ("If" is the operative word.)

[fmolf]

Originally Posted by Greyfox

Accepting the above bold premise as true, that the 25-1 horse should be 50-1 by your odds prediction, would that stop you from putting a few bucks on the nose of it because it was "underlayed according to your odds theory?"
At any track a double digit odds runner that has an "angle chance" to win,
should be considered as a possible flat bet play.

"If" I see something there in the past performances, I think 25-1 is an outstanding opportunity to make a play - win or place. My odds line wouldn't deter me. ("If" is the operative word.)

absolutely would not make the play..why would i bet a horse that actually would win once in fifty one races at half the price he should be.... i look for horses i have at 15/1 and the public makes them 25/1...the higher the better..just because a horses odds are high does not make him a good bet.. i will not make a bet on any horse that i give less than a 15/1 shot to win