Travers Stakes

[Pell Mell]

With the way all the 3 yr old stakes unfolded this year, do you think there could be a major upset in this one too?

I think if Thirsty doesn't have his game suit on we could see another bomb in here.

[GaryG]

And the bomber will be....(I hope):

Raison d'Etat

Developing rapidly for Mott... In that last one he had no chance to catch the Pletcher horse that was setting a slow pace on a speed-biased course.

[thespaah]

Originally Posted by Pell Mell

With the way all the 3 yr old stakes unfolded this year, do you think there could be a major upset in this one too?

I think if Thirsty doesn't have his game suit on we could see another bomb in here.

The possibility of a big shocker at the Spa is always high.

[tribecaagent]

My key/win bet is (#3) Moonshine Mullin

I'll be using (#1) Bowan's Causeway, (#2) Rattlesnake Bridge & (#4) Ruler on Ice


All the best

[PhantomOnTour]

As long as we're shopping for prices so far in this thread i will throw my two cents in on Rattlesnake Bridge.
Career has developed nicely and his last puts him in the ballpark figurewise. It was also his first try around two turns and he did very well. Gets the top jock in Johnny V to ride.
He hasn't raced beyond 1m16 though and must go 10f tomorrow...tough task.
ML is only 8-1 and i need higher than that before betting on top.

[Some_One]

Using NP (trying not to redboard for once, lol) looks like Ruler on Ice, Rattlesnake Bridge and Shackleford are the plays as Stay Thirsty doesn't qualify as a contender. In the King's Bishop, I can't eliminate a single horse using NP, lol, think that's a first, so obviously it's bombs away (looks like all the price horses are closers and I think that'll be very good).

[big frank]

Originally Posted by GaryG

And the bomber will be....(I hope):

Raison d'Etat

Developing rapidly for Mott... In that last one he had no chance to catch the Pletcher horse that was setting a slow pace on a speed-biased course.

im with you Gary ,, i feel Mott has had this horse at 80% , and he has been pointing for the travers all the while... I think he will be rolling late and has a big shot

[NYPlayer]

My top four:

Stay Thirsty
Malibu Glow
Shakleford
Ruler on Ice

This figures to be a pretty comptitive renewal.

[BlueShoe]

Who goes with Shackleford early? Sure, there are stalker/pressers in the race, but do not see anyone that is likely to mix it up early with Shack. Not convinced yet that he cannot get a classic distance against good colts.

[plainolebill]

I predict Coil will run early with Shackleford. Having a terrible start and winning from way back didn't convince me he's changed his running style.

I'm still looking at the race, Dutrow's horse fits according to the (BRIS) figs but the numbers from his last race are questionable to me with the top 3 horses finishing close with big figs in a minor stakes at Del.

I think Mott's horse has very little chance of winning here unless he really steps it up.

I'll probably bet Ruler on Ice with a side dish of J.W. Blue.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by plainolebill

I predict Coil will run early with Shackleford. Having a terrible start and winning from way back didn't convince me he's changed his running style.

GLAD someone brought this up.

This is the fascinating part of the race.

Coil seemed to show a great improvement with the change in running style during the Travers. Shackleford ran a very strong Haskell in what was a good edition. Probably the best 3yo "classic" race since the Belmont(which was hampered by an unlucky AK).

There is a legitimate question as to whether Coil would have been beaten by Shackleford had he been on the pace in the Haskell.

Then that difficult question is compounded when we have to figure out whether Coil will be run as a speed horse again like he used to, or whether he will be rated off the pace.

Baffert is no dummy. The horse is rateable and we will see a stalking trip. I do not expect Coil to be taken as far back as in the Haskell, rather I expect him to be within 5 lengths at all times.

Then if that line of thinking is followed, it is hard to know if Coil will be as strong or better with that trip.

Back to the Haskell, ... Again Coil is difficult to evaluate because he was the only one who ran the running style of a deep closer in that race. He ran a separate race from everyone else. In such situations it is not sufficient to compare his trip with Ruler on Ice and JJ's Lucky Train, as he ran a separate race from them even if they were supposedly off-the-pace.

Coil and his running style can be a fascinating sub-topic here. My perspective happens to be that these are minor issues, but it could be someone's core concern if they felt that way...

[Rapid Grey]

More than one way to skin the cat so I'm looking to just get a longshot into the bottom of the gimmicks. Bowman's Causeway seems like a different animal since moving into Chad Brown's barn. I'll try and get him in the bottom of a tri or super...don't think he can win. I'll throw out Rattlesnake Bridge, Malibu Glow and JW Blue and spread from there using Stay Thirsy and Shackleford as the two most likely winners. Can't use Moonshine Mullin higher than 3rd. Use Ruler on Ice, Raison d'Etat and Coil the same amount and cover with them slightly in the top spot.

Hope that makes sense.

[cosmo96]

I like #6 Raison d'Etat. Anything can happen in a race like this. The horse has had good workouts, high pedigree, Mott, and good value.

[ten2oneormore]

The fact that everybody and their mother seem to be on Raison D'Etat doesn't bode well for his 10-1 ML.Think TLG is putting him on top also on talking horses.I'm going with Shack/Raison D'Etat EX BX.Unless odds make them unplayable then I pass.

[Spiderman]

JW Blue for three reasons: 1) no one else picks him 2) he is a very strong closer and should, at the least, be used underneath on exotic tickets 3) if you consider Ruler On Ice, JW ran a better race when they faced each other at PIM