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11-18-2020, 03:19 PM
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#1
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Took a Cab, Gulfstream Park West R8
Looking at the as an interesting 0-18 mdn clm
Looks like should be 1st or 2nd, and you hope the 1,5,10 can get into your tri or super.
Not a great betting race. I'm looking at the were he to be claimed and run in a dirt mile. Also think the will be 3rd or 4th (light for 2nd), if he does not duel up front.
is very interesting. is as well. hopefully add value.
*Also would like to see if the is heavily backed in Doubles Probables, or not...
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11-18-2020, 03:34 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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is the low double right now, 9/1 is a solid price.
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11-18-2020, 03:38 PM
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#3
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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1st on top,
underneath to add value.
The is looking like a bad value, maybe a slight underlay.
The is the live long shot
and look like tough favorites
is uniknown, and dead on the board
is not a good 'win' candidate
it's a dice roll, but the public is tough here with solid enough Favs...
my 5 is not a good value, but I expect him to run a decent race. Prefer no duel.
no bet or something small w/ 10
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11-18-2020, 03:40 PM
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#4
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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r7
7th race = the scares me a little, as far as some $ stuff on the tote
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11-18-2020, 03:44 PM
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#5
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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r7
$1 gambles:
5 top/bot of 47 5tb 467
5 dd 74,10 5 dd 145710
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11-18-2020, 03:53 PM
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#6
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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crazy r7 ...
my 5 wilted early, looked good as speed-of-speeds until the long shot closed to win wide, l lead.
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11-18-2020, 03:54 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Much rather take 11/1 on the here than 4/1 on the .
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11-18-2020, 04:04 PM
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#8
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Took a Cab R8
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Much rather take 11/1 on the here than 4/1 on the .
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We agree, again!
Ironically my likeable horse is a terrible value in the 'Win' pool.
is live as a price
and look like the talent and solid chalk
is an 'unknown', but a big enough price with enough models in his direction that you must use
may run 2nd, but is a better value as a 3rd or 4th finisher. May be off the board completely if he duels to much early into a pace...
The real story is in the claim potential.
looks like a bad value in the 'win' pool
play around =
ex ky box 10 tb 47
emphasis ex 47/ 10
.50c TRI 47/12457/10
.10c SU 47/12457/A/10
.10c SU 4, 7, 10/4, 7, 10/1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10/1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10
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11-18-2020, 04:16 PM
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#9
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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4 / 15710 super key box =$9.60 , never bet super keys, but interesting long shots
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11-18-2020, 04:19 PM
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#10
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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I'll be very surprised if he was claimesd.
ran 'his' race again
was scared that he might win today.
seemed to get lost in the shuffle
nice ride and effort by the , surprised me.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 11-18-2020 at 04:21 PM.
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11-18-2020, 04:22 PM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Yep, ran his race, finishing third. Got his trip, pressing the speed to his inside. Ran down again.
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12-03-2020, 11:38 PM
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#12
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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back again, Friday race 2 Gulfstream #7
Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
Yep, ran his race, finishing third. Got his trip, pressing the speed to his inside. Ran down again.
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Took a Cab (my personal favorite 0-for-19 loser that cant get a distance, who I've committed some theory to...)
Tomorrow he's probably the same horse,
yet less attractive.
The class and distance is coming to him, and the price is (going away from him) lowering.
He could get a soft trip, and screw the whole thing up (by winning, thus making a 12.5 claim, a probable loss)
Flip a coin, whether he even contends. And he won't be the solid underneath key price he was last time, or as valuable as a long-term chess move as he was last time.
Guess I'm rooting.
I'm rooting that Braddy breaks mdn Sainer's homebred on try #20. and that someone gets greedy and claims him over-ripe, a race too late, - so Braddy and Sainer get an extra $12.5k,
- or failing that, he loses and goes to a high% team.
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Last edited by Robert Fischer; 12-03-2020 at 11:48 PM.
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12-04-2020, 01:45 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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The good news is that the ML favorite is 0 for 29.
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12-04-2020, 11:50 AM
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#14
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
The good news is that the ML favorite is 0 for 29.
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don't like the at all, on top.
could be a level above these. Has yet to prove it.
is ...
doesn't look good to me, but he has class and speed on his side
isn't a brave stretch horse, but relatively lightly raced, decent barn stats
doesn't look good to me (he looks like a horse to maybe key third with some big prices in front of him in a tri... IDK)
is capable of passing some rivals with any sort of late flow. Decent underneath price
dime super .10 ? / ? / /
No bets
some fun paper bet guesses
Scenario=Midwest has 'im ready, and the clunkers clunk.
/ ALL / / =$1.60
ALL / / =$1.60
more
scenario 2= either the or the win their little duel, and the loser succumbs to the clunkers;
11/5, 7/3, 4, 6, 8, 10/3, 4, 6, 8, 10=$4.00
11/3, 4, 6, 8, 10/5, 7/3, 4, 6, 8, 10=$4.00
scenario fiesta = Speed favoring, and Zayas sits a great trip to get 3rd
50c Tri / / =$3
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12-04-2020, 12:07 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,123
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Leaving out the Comiskey Park here? Only first time starter in a field like this? The whole field has 21 $ finishes in 88 starts. Take the and out and they have 1. I would even consider the here. Three different horses have been able to run a race with a par or better figure. One of them is 30/1. The only other one of those 3 I would consider is the . Just because he ran that figure against open MSW competition at this distance.
Hate the race, it is a spread race that has no real "A" selections.
30/1, 15/1, 8/1, 30/1, and 9/2.
Last edited by jay68802; 12-04-2020 at 12:09 PM.
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