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09-01-2020, 01:29 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
Posts: 1,625
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The Derby
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09-01-2020, 03:12 PM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,208
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Tiz the Law may get Bayern'ed at the start.
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09-01-2020, 03:24 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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easy to put a line through many of these horses
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09-01-2020, 03:26 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2020
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 1,086
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Interesting draw. The three best horses in many fans minds all draw the three outside posts.
Tiz the Law remains my main selection.
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09-01-2020, 03:32 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 261
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09-01-2020, 03:36 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,752
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the only thing that amazes me is that there are 18 horses entered this saturday.
3/5 in this field and the post position is basically stealing.
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09-01-2020, 05:12 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Clarksville, AR
Posts: 1,218
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Sad for Art Collector and the connections.
Also cannot believe that one-eyed Finnick the Fierce drew the one hole AGAIN in a big stake!
One hole in the 13 horse Lecomte at Fair Grounds
One hole in the 9 horse Nadal division of the Arkansas Derby
and now
One hole in the 18 horse Kentucky Derby
If not for bad luck ...
__________________
Tom in NW Arkansas
Past performances are no guarantee of future results. - Why isn't this disclaimer printed in the Daily Racing Form?
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09-01-2020, 05:28 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 246
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Something I've been thinking is what has been the worst prep for a normal derby over the last 20 years? The Wood Memorial easily, even the polytrack Blue Grass has thrown more ITM Derby finishers I believe.
So now we have a horse who has prepped solely in NY and the other thing that caught my eye is those who ran against him and finished way up the track seemed to run tops on bris figures even when out of it (saw this a lot in Wood Memorial figures).
The only difference is what appeared to be a great Travers, so conflicted.
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09-01-2020, 05:57 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 1,501
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper
Sad for Art Collector and the connections.
Also cannot believe that one-eyed Finnick the Fierce drew the one hole AGAIN in a big stake!
One hole in the 13 horse Lecomte at Fair Grounds
One hole in the 9 horse Nadal division of the Arkansas Derby
and now
One hole in the 18 horse Kentucky Derby
If not for bad luck ...
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most of finnicks good races came from the rail.
there's no denying his last race was a big turd
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09-01-2020, 06:35 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 246
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper
Sad for Art Collector and the connections.
Also cannot believe that one-eyed Finnick the Fierce drew the one hole AGAIN in a big stake!
One hole in the 13 horse Lecomte at Fair Grounds
One hole in the 9 horse Nadal division of the Arkansas Derby
and now
One hole in the 18 horse Kentucky Derby
If not for bad luck ...
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It could be worse, #1 post in an 18 horse field is #2 in a 20 horse field, #1 and #20 should be open gates
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09-01-2020, 08:30 PM
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#11
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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good info
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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09-02-2020, 09:10 AM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,641
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper
Also cannot believe that one-eyed Finnick the Fierce drew the one hole AGAIN in a big stake!
One hole in the 13 horse Lecomte at Fair Grounds
One hole in the 9 horse Nadal division of the Arkansas Derby
and now
One hole in the 18 horse Kentucky Derby
If not for bad luck ...
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Why does everyone always say this? Post 1 has had 8 winners. That's the 3rd highest number of winners in the KY Derby history. (others being 10 wins and 9 wins).
Post 6, 11, 14, 18 only 2 winners.
Post 0 winners.
Wonder how the new gate will affect things......
But maybe #1 is his lucky number, since it comes up so often for him? Trying to think of another horse(s) who keep drawing same numbers..........
Last edited by clicknow; 09-02-2020 at 09:17 AM.
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09-02-2020, 11:52 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Clarksville, AR
Posts: 1,218
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clicknow
Why does everyone always say this? Post 1 has had 8 winners. That's the 3rd highest number of winners in the KY Derby history. (others being 10 wins and 9 wins).
Post 6, 11, 14, 18 only 2 winners.
Post 0 winners.
Wonder how the new gate will affect things......
But maybe #1 is his lucky number, since it comes up so often for him? Trying to think of another horse(s) who keep drawing same numbers..........
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My issue with the one hole has nothing to do with the statistics.
It was more the idea that he is one LEFT eyed horse - so has no vision to his right. I was hoping to see him to the outside where he could better see the competition. In addition, one of the reports after the Bluegrass was that he ran so poorly because he was getting kickback into his one good eye:
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/t...entucky-derby/
He'll definitely get that on the inside unless he is go, go, go. I was hoping that on the outside he'd get a little less kickback and be able to give the most true account of himself. Not that I'm expecting him to win, but I think he has a chance to run well.
__________________
Tom in NW Arkansas
Past performances are no guarantee of future results. - Why isn't this disclaimer printed in the Daily Racing Form?
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09-02-2020, 12:22 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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I love how people say, take back tuck in an save some ground. You may get real lucky but from that far outside with that many horses inside you chances are you are losing ground, and I suspect that Honor AP if they are next to each other is not going to make it easy for him to get inside of him.
Maybe the horse is just that handy he can take back in hand, but even then he needs some luck.
He is lengths better than this field so its probably still ok to be wide on the first turn, needs to save some second turn.
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09-02-2020, 12:26 PM
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#15
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self medicated
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: toga
Posts: 3,087
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Onesome
Something I've been thinking is what has been the worst prep for a normal derby over the last 20 years? The Wood Memorial easily, even the polytrack Blue Grass has thrown more ITM Derby finishers I believe.
So now we have a horse who has prepped solely in NY and the other thing that caught my eye is those who ran against him and finished way up the track seemed to run tops on bris figures even when out of it (saw this a lot in Wood Memorial figures).
The only difference is what appeared to be a great Travers, so conflicted.
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That’s the thing. Yeah, those preps you mentioned have come up weak recently but there’s no mystery about the distance. The Fla Derby has been huge though. He made them look stupid in the Travers. There were a couple good horses in there and they weren’t in the same zip code. You mix him in with some prices and if he has bad racing luck and comes in second ....... it will be a nice payday. It’s like people forget that anything can happen in any horse race. Just last year was one of the wackiest results ever in the history of the Derby. And I have my doubts about the second and third choices after seeing that Travers. I don’t know if Authentic will get the distance and Honor AP is good enough. I’ll be using with prices.
Last edited by burnsy; 09-02-2020 at 12:30 PM.
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