Saratoga 2nd race saturday

[zico20]

I have seen this before from Pletcher. A high priced maiden, 375,000, is running for a 35,000 tag. The horse is coming off of a second place finish at Monmouth. Half of these Pletcher drops wins and the other half are nowhere to be found. Don't see how anyone can play the race unless you have some inside info on the horse.

[Some_One]

According to Bris, +ROI angle

+Mdn to MdnClm 103 32% 68% +0.11

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by zico20

I have seen this before from Pletcher. A high priced maiden, 375,000, is running for a 35,000 tag. The horse is coming off of a second place finish at Monmouth. Half of these Pletcher drops wins and the other half are nowhere to be found. Don't see how anyone can play the race unless you have some inside info on the horse.

If the horse raced 1 time or more, you don't need inside info, you have the replay to judge what kind of talent the horse has.

[Matt Bryan]

Originally Posted by zico20

I have seen this before from Pletcher. A high priced maiden, 375,000, is running for a 35,000 tag. The horse is coming off of a second place finish at Monmouth. Half of these Pletcher drops wins and the other half are nowhere to be found. Don't see how anyone can play the race unless you have some inside info on the horse.

Pletcher horses rarely offer value at Saratoga anyway. Whether something is wrong with the horse or not, or someone "in the know", it's not worth betting on.

[Robert Fischer]

I can't really bet this race. I don't like the 8 very much, which may add slight value.


(Pletcher's maiden) = He's not that talented, but he's relatively tough in the lane. That last race turned out to be a dream trip, but it was quicker early, and here he should get a good forwardly placed opportunity vs. cheap speed. The price is going to be terrible in this race.

= first time starter with an outside chance at being a good racehorse. Looks like he has some talent and they've been handling with kid gloves. At least they've got the works to once a week and ran him a little bit 7/25.

= Sluggish runner adds blinkers. Is a solid horse. Really needs to get better position early and be lucky to have things fall apart late.

[letswastemoney]

Once the horse races, the purchase price doesn't mean much anymore.

I look at purchase prices when they make their first start, as there isn't much else to go on, but after they race, that's your evidence of ability.

[Robert Fischer]

maybe there will be value after all?
nyra picks:
Andy Serling
Mike Beer


Both NYRA handicappers featured the as the top selection, and neither used the .



I'm most likely the one in the wrong.

I like
for verticals and horizontals.

If are big prices, maybe i will use the as an "a" horse and try to construct some tickets. (for verticals would still need to include the in spots)

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I can't really bet this race. I don't like the 8 very much, which may add slight value.


* (Pletcher's maiden) = He's not that talented, but he's relatively tough in the lane. That last race turned out to be a dream trip, but it was quicker early, and here he should get a good forwardly placed opportunity vs. cheap speed. The price is going to be terrible in this race.

= first time starter with an outside chance at being a good racehorse. Looks like he has some talent and they've been handling with kid gloves. At least they've got the works to once a week and ran him a little bit 7/25.

= Sluggish runner adds blinkers. Is a solid horse. Really needs to get better position early and be lucky to have things fall apart late.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

maybe there will be value after all?
nyra picks:
Andy Serling
Mike Beer


Both NYRA handicappers featured the as the top selection, and neither used the .

It's probably because that Ireland's Eye comes out of a race two starts back with The Big Beast in it, which means there was some quality.

He faded and lost by 18 lengths, but no doubt, Ireland's Eye will last much longer in a maiden claimer.

It would help a great deal though if the outside speed was scratched.

[Thebigguy]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

It's probably because that Ireland's Eye comes out of a race two starts back with The Big Beast in it, which means there was some quality.

He faded and lost by 18 lengths, but no doubt, Ireland's Eye will last much longer in a maiden claimer.

It would help a great deal though if the outside speed was scratched.

Kind of hard to listen to him, no? He said he likes half the field. I like the 4 and 5. I think one of them win the race.

[PhantomOnTour]

Unappealing race

[Stillriledup]

From a Beyer standpoint, this favorite is going to have to improve to win. Most of these have recorded 60 or higher in their careers...so, you have to figure if one of them fires a big shot, they can run a 70 or higher...so, the TAP horse has to improve to win, he's only dropping in class on paper.

[OTM Al]

8/2+5 and a 5+8 box in the exactas if the price is right.

[Tom]

looks legit to me.
I'll play / and /

[point given]

Although not the same mcl level , Steve Crist in his 8/3 blog had this to say; take it for what its worth .

" My experience with these $75k 2-year-old maiden claimers at Saratoga has been to use short-priced second-timers (like today's two favorites) only defensively and assume that at least one of the firsters is probably okay. By "okay" I mean a firster who belongs in a maiden-special but who someone's trying to cash a bet with at Saratoga>

Again 35mcl isnot 75mcl but i look at the selling price of the other entries and drops , 1st timers. In regards to the $375k dropper, I don't like him, race is 7f , like 2358. FWIW

[Tom]

and are out.

I'm sticking with /

Throw in an early double /