Betting pattern at Santa Anita on Bad Boy under investigation

[Stillriledup]

Any news on this 'investigation"?

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Any news on this 'investigation"?

they hired 56 private detectives to investigate this case of the "mistaken wager" the report is due out in about a decade from now right after they finish the investigation

[RJason]

Yes. I followed this up pretty strongly due to the firestorm it caused and was told, by someone on the inside whose job it is to know, that the investigation showed that is was a long-time on-track player at SA, a pretty strong player. Answer I got was "he made the win bet, then later didn't like the odds (3/5 at the time) and cancelled the bet." Supposedly the first time he's done something like that - simply didn't think the horse would still be that low and it was too low for him....

Was also told that this investigation was easy because he was an in-state player and they knew all of this info within 48 hours at most - SA did NOT do a very good job of getting the info out, to be sure.

I did tell this exact story the following week (Jan 22) on my radio show...."Inside Racing" every Sat at 7am on AM1150 in LA and www.racingjason.com

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by RJason

Yes. I followed this up pretty strongly due to the firestorm it caused and was told, by someone on the inside whose job it is to know, that the investigation showed that is was a long-time on-track player at SA, a pretty strong player. Answer I got was "he made the win bet, then later didn't like the odds (3/5 at the time) and cancelled the bet." Supposedly the first time he's done something like that - simply didn't think the horse would still be that low and it was too low for him....

Was also told that this investigation was easy because he was an in-state player and they knew all of this info within 48 hours at most - SA did NOT do a very good job of getting the info out, to be sure.

I did tell this exact story the following week (Jan 22) on my radio show...."Inside Racing" every Sat at 7am on AM1150 in LA and www.racingjason.com

Thank you Jason.

This is kind of an alarming thing. I mean, anyone can bet 20k and then 'not like the odds' and cancel the bet.

What's to prevent anyone from doing this on a regular basis?

[highnote]

Originally Posted by edmond1

Could have been intended to manipulate Betfair odds. I monitored that race and noticed that one could have easily layed it early at 1.7 range (large amounts available) and then back it later (after bet canceled) to lock in a tidy profit with no risk ....

This is the same thing I was thinking. Wait until betting exchanges are operational in the states. Then, I predict, you are going to see some very interesting pool fluctuations.

[highnote]

Here is the tote data for #4 Bad Boy and the winner #6 Proud Cardenal.

DATE     TRACK Race MTP  PGM WIN     PL    SHO  
               NUM       NUM POOL    POOL  POOL 
20110109  SAN   6    5    4  45750    911   805
20110109  SAN   6    4    4  46653    960   863
20110109  SAN   6    3    4  46653    960   863
20110109  SAN   6    3    4  47070   1331  1249
20110109  SAN   6    2    4  45358   2825  1413
20110109  SAN   6    1    4  38854   3236  1725
20110109  SAN   6    0    4  27172   3755  2407
20110109  SAN   6    0    4  21234   4385  3089
20110109  SAN   6    0    4  14918   4768  3573
20110109  SAN   6   -1    4  14918   4768  3573
20110109  SAN   6   -1    4  20055   5735  4211
20110109  SAN   6   -1    4  40572  11713  5148

"-1" Minutes to Post means the race is closed. Money typically comes in for a couple flashes of the tote after the race has started. I assume this is because it takes time for all the bets to be reconciled by the host track.

At about 2 minutes to post it was noticable that money was being withdrawn incrementally. The fact that it was taken out slowly is what I find interesting.

The $20K late money that showed up in the final tote flash was probably all the other money from the betting shops that came in just before the start of the race and had to work it's way through the system.

[cj]

Originally Posted by RJason

Yes. I followed this up pretty strongly due to the firestorm it caused and was told, by someone on the inside whose job it is to know, that the investigation showed that is was a long-time on-track player at SA, a pretty strong player. Answer I got was "he made the win bet, then later didn't like the odds (3/5 at the time) and cancelled the bet." Supposedly the first time he's done something like that - simply didn't think the horse would still be that low and it was too low for him....

Was also told that this investigation was easy because he was an in-state player and they knew all of this info within 48 hours at most - SA did NOT do a very good job of getting the info out, to be sure.

I did tell this exact story the following week (Jan 22) on my radio show...."Inside Racing" every Sat at 7am on AM1150 in LA and www.racingjason.com

I find it amazing this was allowed to happen, and even more amazing that the idiots in California actually admitted it was because of the odds, not an error. This seems very, very fishy.

[lamboguy]

it happens all the time, in plenty of venues

[highnote]

Correction: The tote data is only for #4. I deleted the data for the winner #6 because it looked normal.

Originally Posted by swetyejohn

Here is the tote data for #4 Bad Boy and the winner #6 Proud Cardenal.

DATE     TRACK Race MTP  PGM WIN     PL    SHO  
               NUM       NUM POOL    POOL  POOL 
20110109  SAN   6    5    4  45750    911   805
20110109  SAN   6    4    4  46653    960   863
20110109  SAN   6    3    4  46653    960   863
20110109  SAN   6    3    4  47070   1331  1249
20110109  SAN   6    2    4  45358   2825  1413
20110109  SAN   6    1    4  38854   3236  1725
20110109  SAN   6    0    4  27172   3755  2407
20110109  SAN   6    0    4  21234   4385  3089
20110109  SAN   6    0    4  14918   4768  3573
20110109  SAN   6   -1    4  14918   4768  3573
20110109  SAN   6   -1    4  20055   5735  4211
20110109  SAN   6   -1    4  40572  11713  5148

"-1" Minutes to Post means the race is closed. Money typically comes in for a couple flashes of the tote after the race has started. I assume this is because it takes time for all the bets to be reconciled by the host track.

At about 2 minutes to post it was noticable that money was being withdrawn incrementally. The fact that it was taken out slowly is what I find interesting.

The $20K late money that showed up in the final tote flash was probably all the other money from the betting shops that came in just before the start of the race and had to work it's way through the system.

[toetoe]

Originally Posted by RJason

I did tell this exact story the following week (Jan 22) on my radio show...."Inside Racing" every Sat at 7am on AM1150 in LA and www.racingjason.com

Good job, and welcome, Jason. .

[Stillriledup]

CJ is right, this is a fishy situation. What did the bettor think was going to happen by betting tens of thousands to win, did he think he was going to get 4-1? Of course the horse was going to be 'bad odds' that's what happens normally when you bet 20k (or more) to win into a relatively small win pool.

[Greyfox]

I used to frequent an O.T.B. Sports Bar , where a player was in the regular habit of coming in and putting a $ 1000 bet through the wagering machine several days a month.
This had the impact of lowering the odds on a particular horses at smaller tracks. His intent was to pull the betting public over to a vulnerable favorite.

His practice was to cancel the wager by taking a betting coupon about 5 minutes before the race and then playing considerably less money on the horse that he really liked.

He did this for years. Then one day he did it. The machine that he requested the voucher from broke down. The race went, he lost $ 1000 then and there. Whether he continued with that ploy or not, I do not know.

I've never heard of anyone though putting down 40 G's and pulling that kind of crap.

[Coleman]

So starting from the peak win pool amount 3 minutes to post and ending at the first -1 tick, 32,000 came out of the win pool.

And of course this is with new money coming in; during this same time frame the place and show pools tripled; the 25,000 after the bell shows that people were continuing to bet the horse. If money was coming into the win pool proportionately to the place and show pools, there should have been around 125,000 in the win pool.

So at the minimum, assuming no new money at all was coming in, 32,000 in bets were cancelled. At maximum over 100,000.

So no, it wasn't one guy cancelling a 20,000 bet; it was a lot more than that, or a lot more guys.

(The withdrawals are incremental, which may or may not mean anything--it may be when wagers are cancelled they are removed from the pools in batches of certain sizes, I'm not sure how that works).

[Charlie D]

Originally Posted by Stillriledup

Thank you Jason.

This is kind of an alarming thing. I mean, anyone can bet 20k and then 'not like the odds' and cancel the bet.

What's to prevent anyone from doing this on a regular basis?

Nothing and i would take a guess that it does happen on a regular basis, but these don't stick out like a sore thumb like in this instance.

[Stillriledup]

Originally Posted by Charlie D

Nothing and i would take a guess that it does happen on a regular basis, but these don't stick out like a sore thumb like in this instance.

I see this stuff all the time. Short odds on some bum and then you look up and the horse is 10-1 again.