Quote:
Originally Posted by horses4courses
Success stories on Derby futures are few and far between.
They do happen, but it really is lightning in a bottle.
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Last year I did well boxing Good Magic with the all others option in the first two pools and was fortunate to capture Justify in it.
The previous year I played Always Dreaming over the all others option in Pool 4 It was a nice feeling seeing him heading to the line with Looking at Lee and Battle of Midway whom I covered separately sitting behind. I would have made a lot more with BOM but a win is a win.
This wager approach failed when Nyquist/Exaggerator filled the exacta as both horses were prominent through all the pools. I believe it also failed every pool in with American Pharoah and Firing Line.
Most of my Derby exacta combos are already played by the closing of Pool 4. I can then focus on the trifecta and horizontal gimmicks on Derby day. I like to use the future pools as a way to cover a pile of Derby day combinations for a fraction of the price courtesy of the all others option. In most cases this is not going to result in huge payoffs since the all others option is heavily used. This is very clear with the paltry sums offered with the favorites in most recent pool. It does give me some comfort come Derby day knowing I have the Dallas Stewart goofball horse covered in my exacta without investing additional bankroll. Further, my selections don't even need to hit the board to collect. It just needs to be the top finisher of those listed. In 2013, the top horse in Pool 1 finished 7th.
I do suspect this year will play out more like 2015-16 versus 2017-18 and I might have to get more specific in the next two pools.
