TimeformUS Pace/Speed Figures from Derby day

[cj]

Derby Field

[jay68802]

Pretty strong finish for Justify considering the pace.

[storyline]

Originally Posted by cj

Derby Field

Pretty much the best horse we've seen in the Derby in decades / lifetime

[lured]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Pretty strong finish for Justify considering the pace.

This whole race baffles me. Justify ran the first 1/2 mile in about 46 seconds. The 3/4 mile was run in 1:11 and change. He never had a huge lead on most of the field even after this blistering pace. This means he ran the final 6 furlongs in 1:18 and the final 1/2 mile in 53 seconds. I do not understand why most of the field who took it easy early, couldn't come even close to chasing him down when his times look closer to Arabian horses after the first 3/4 miles?

Has anyone ever seen anything like this when it's come to fractions? His first half mile beat his last half mile by 35 lengths. Unbelievable.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by lured

This whole race baffles me. Justify ran the first 1/2 mile in about 46 seconds. The 3/4 mile was run in 1:11 and change. He never had a huge lead on most of the field even after this blistering pace. This means he ran the final 6 furlongs in 1:18 and the final 1/2 mile in 53 seconds. I do not understand why most of the field who took it easy early, couldn't come even close to chasing him down when his times look closer to Arabian horses after the first 3/4 miles?

Has anyone ever seen anything like this when it's come to fractions? His first half mile beat his last half mile by 35 lengths. Unbelievable.

I think American Pharoah's Preakness, with a last minute deluge of rain during the post parade, unfolded in a similar fashion--although AP had no pace rival to contend with.

[Augenj]

Originally Posted by lured

This whole race baffles me. Justify ran the first 1/2 mile in about 46 seconds. The 3/4 mile was run in 1:11 and change. He never had a huge lead on most of the field even after this blistering pace. This means he ran the final 6 furlongs in 1:18 and the final 1/2 mile in 53 seconds. I do not understand why most of the field who took it easy early, couldn't come even close to chasing him down when his times look closer to Arabian horses after the first 3/4 miles?

Has anyone ever seen anything like this when it's come to fractions? His first half mile beat his last half mile by 35 lengths. Unbelievable.

It looks pretty typical to me for a sloppy track. Front runners stay in front and closers never close. This was just an exaggerated example of that observation, maybe due to the "unique" Churchill dirt surface.

[lured]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

I think American Pharoah's Preakness, with a last minute deluge of rain during the post parade, unfolded in a similar fashion--although AP had no pace rival to contend with.

Thanks. You're right. I guess I am less surprised that it would happen in Preakness though. Shorter field and a lot of the best triple crown racers drop out if they don't get the Derby. This Derby was pushed to us that it was a great field. I have to question that now. Very few made moves in this race and you would think that with the leader and eventual winner running at such a snails pace for the last 1/2 mile, many could and would.

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by lured

Thanks. You're right. I guess I am less surprised that it would happen in Preakness though. Shorter field and a lot of the best triple crown racers drop out if they don't get the Derby. This Derby was pushed to us that it was a great field. I have to question that now. Very few made moves in this race and you would think that with the leader and eventual winner running at such a snails pace for the last 1/2 mile, many could and would.

What????? When all is said and done a lot of these runners are going to do very well in the future.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by jocko699

What????? When all is said and done a lot of these runners are going to do very well in the future.

I agree, I think this will still be a great field.

I think the public kinda nailed this one. My Boy Jack took money, Magnum Moon did not.

Of the horses I think could really move forward is Hoffberg.

[lured]

Originally Posted by jocko699

What????? When all is said and done a lot of these runners are going to do very well in the future.

I hope so. It just seems odd that all but a couple of them(Audible and Instilled Regard) couldn't hardly close the gap on a 53 second final half mile. The whole point of tactfully staying off the pace is to save some gas to make to later moves. When the leader gives 1 minute and 18 seconds to do that in the final 3/4 mile, I would think it shouldn't be that difficult to do so. Not saying they would've or should've over taken him, but they should've forced him to run a lot faster.

[JustRalph]

As soon as I saw the final time I was running the numbers and trying to figure out how slow they must have gone the last half

Shocked nobody closed ground.

Audible got blocked badly mid stretch, but as soon as he hit the rail he stopped gaining ground.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by jocko699

What????? When all is said and done a lot of these runners are going to do very well in the future.

I agree, I think this will still be a great field.

I think the public kinda nailed this one. My Boy Jack took money, Magnum Moon did not.

Of the horses I think could really move forward is Hoffberg.

[storyline]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

As soon as I saw the final time I was running the numbers and trying to figure out how slow they must have gone the last half

Shocked nobody closed ground.

Audible got blocked badly mid stretch, but as soon as he hit the rail he stopped gaining ground.

I think the track was almost 2.5 seconds slow

[jocko699]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I agree, I think this will still be a great field.

I think the public kinda nailed this one. My Boy Jack took money, Magnum Moon did not.

Of the horses I think could really move forward is Hoffberg.

I think Audible is the real deal considering all. I talked to a friend of mine about Instilled Regard and bet him but this was the race to ever cash on him.

Justify shocked me, although I have been high on him all along yet cautious, I am STUNNED by this race. He is the real deal!!!!

[lured]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I agree, I think this will still be a great field.

I think the public kinda nailed this one. My Boy Jack took money, Magnum Moon did not.

Of the horses I think could really move forward is Hoffberg.

I'm thinking that maybe it had something to do with the mess early on that probably took some of the potential closers out of the race. Magnum Moon, Solomini Mendelssohn and Instilled Regard were all in the immediate area of the multi-bumps. (anyone know which caused it?). Instilled Regard somehow managed to keep himself in the race.