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05-01-2018, 07:49 PM
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#76
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 310
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We know that Moore has the mount, but the real question is, where will Aidan be on Saturday, along with the Coolmore gang. Will they be in Kentucky, or back home 2000 British Guineas?
Last edited by Frost king; 05-01-2018 at 08:02 PM.
Reason: Spelling
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05-01-2018, 07:53 PM
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#77
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Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Frost king
We know that Moore has the mount, but the real question is, where will Aidan be on Saturday, along with the Coolmore gang. Will they be in Kentucky, or back home Forbthe Irish Guineas?
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Isn't the Irish Guineas on May 26? I guess if he's walking back to Ireland he may have to leave before the KD.
__________________
Battle is the most magnificent competition in which a human being can indulge. It brings out all that is best; it removes all that is base. All men are afraid in battle. The coward is the one who lets his fear overcome his sense of duty. Duty is the essence of manhood.
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05-02-2018, 02:16 AM
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#78
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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Why doesn't the DRF have a Beyer for Rayya in the UAE Derby?
I guess it is about a 79.
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05-02-2018, 02:55 AM
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#79
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 487
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Quote:
Originally Posted by depalma113
Why doesn't the DRF have a Beyer for Rayya in the UAE Derby?
I guess it is about a 79.
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Do you actually read the Form ?
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05-02-2018, 04:54 AM
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#80
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,951
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Still undecided about Mendy, but the TF rating of 80 by second place finisher Rayya screams he didn't beat much. Foreign horses shipping to the States for two-year and three-year old races ON DIRT don't have a high rate of success, regardless of connections or breeding.
Also leery of the camera work at Dubai distorting things. Back in 2006 when Discrete Cat crushed foes in the UAE Derby, I thought that horse was really something - but he couldn't run past a mile here in the U.S.
It's the old adage about streaks - you can win many times, and only lose once. Or in this case, toss the foreigners until one actually wins the Derby.
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05-02-2018, 09:43 AM
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#82
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by depalma113
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DRF doesn't publish Beyer figures for foreign races. They publish Timeform ratings only.
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05-02-2018, 09:58 AM
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#83
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,789
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
DRF doesn't publish Beyer figures for foreign races. They publish Timeform ratings only.
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There is a stat in the thread I started from one of the videos. I believe he said that of 18 T bred races 16 were won wire to wire at Meydan during that period. Will be overbet cuz of T-graph and beyer in form of 106 even though it may be wrong or shouldn't be there.
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05-02-2018, 10:16 AM
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#84
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro
There is a stat in the thread I started from one of the videos. I believe he said that of 18 T bred races 16 were won wire to wire at Meydan during that period. Will be overbet cuz of T-graph and beyer in form of 106 even though it may be wrong or shouldn't be there.
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I checked Formulator and didn't see it, but maybe it is in print editions? Beyer did create figures for the Meydan card so maybe they made an exception this time.
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05-02-2018, 10:19 AM
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#85
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,789
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I checked Formulator and didn't see it, but maybe it is in print editions? Beyer did create figures for the Meydan card so maybe they made an exception this time.
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It's in the PP's I downloaded on the far right of the line.
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05-02-2018, 10:45 AM
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#86
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro
It's in the PP's I downloaded on the far right of the line.
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I see, part of the comment. Interesting. I think the figure is good. I gave an unofficial 128 and 126 on final time, so we're in agreement.
However, I'm more inclined to think this is a Sinister Minister type number given the circumstances.
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05-02-2018, 11:00 AM
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#87
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
DRF doesn't publish Beyer figures for foreign races. They publish Timeform ratings only.
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They gave a figure to Mendelssohn for the UAE Derby, so that is why I am asking.
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05-02-2018, 11:03 AM
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#88
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
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Quote:
Originally Posted by depalma113
They gave a figure to Mendelssohn for the UAE Derby, so that is why I am asking.
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Rough estimate, if he got 106, her figure is going to be about 78.
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05-02-2018, 11:12 AM
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#89
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2017
Posts: 5,789
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I see, part of the comment. Interesting. I think the figure is good. I gave an unofficial 128 and 126 on final time, so we're in agreement.
However, I'm more inclined to think this is a Sinister Minister type number given the circumstances.
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That's what I'm starting to think.
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05-02-2018, 03:30 PM
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#90
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 282
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He won't be overbet
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy Asaro
There is a stat in the thread I started from one of the videos. I believe he said that of 18 T bred races 16 were won wire to wire at Meydan during that period. Will be overbet cuz of T-graph and beyer in form of 106 even though it may be wrong or shouldn't be there.
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because the only people who like him use Thorograph and all but Jerry Brown over there are starting getting cold feet.
Most people will be just like my dad--Justify is this year's Jesus horse, that is what ESPN and the local papers say, he's the favorite which to them means chosen by god, and picking him requires absolutely no thought for them, even less than throwing a dart. He will take all of the money, just like Bellamy Road did, which made no sense given Afleet Alex.
The wise guy horse is Hofburg. He'll fall from all of the sizeable bets by the smarty pants hardened horse players and Bolt will fall because he will be held up as the only horse to ever challenge Justify and survive. He'll fall because he justifies Justify.
LoneF gives you a hard time, but no one else does. Everyone else is insulted and dismissed called outright dumb, told to leave. Jerry Brown isn't going to be all snidey to someone for bringing up other runners in other races beaten by a horse in this race to try to provide more data on a horse for whom data is limited, unlike the head of TimeformUS. I know, because it happened both here and there. The guys at Thorograph are eagerly awaiting Rayya's performance; saying the same here generates a half dozen posts saying how glad they'll be when dumbies like you are gone.
This why Mendelssohn won't be overbet, most people are just like you, or too worried about people like you thinking they are stupid. Hofburg and Bolt will be overbet. Hopefully, Justify, Bolt, and Hofburg will push Mendelssohn up, up, up. A week ago, having a discussion seemed like a fun thing to do. This week, listening to you insist he's the biggest fraud in the field, brings me so much joy. I may lose, but I'm not going to lose on 5-2.
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