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Old 12-14-2017, 04:29 PM   #181
jay68802
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Tough month so far, posted 16 horses and 7 have become unplayable because of odds. The in that race, 3 yr old who showed a sudden jump in the speed figure, a slight decline was expected, but was good enough to win here.
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Old 12-15-2017, 01:25 PM   #182
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Laurel Park Race #5:


Sharon's Thunder 12-1

Trainer does well with shippers and brings last jockey with him. Shows improving figures and could find himself on the lead here.

Gulfstream Race #7:


Psycho Girl 20-1


Second highest last race speed figure, behind the favorite. Improved on the stretch out the first time and gets a little more distance again.
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Old 12-16-2017, 12:56 PM   #183
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Gulfstream Race #6:


Shanghai Schwartz 15-1

Steady first run at 5f, was wide and the second choice in that race. The break and stretch out are favorable. Beyer says that young horses should improve 1.5 points a month, which gives this guy a projected speed figure of 84. That can win this race.


Gulfstream Race #10:


One Go All Go 20-1

Will not wait long to see this one, should be on the front from the start. Has some back figures that can win this race, and the cut back in distance is a plus.


Aqueduct Race #4:

Niko Strong 12-1


First time starter with a trainer angle. Strong last work out and bred to be a sprinter.
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Old 12-17-2017, 10:47 PM   #184
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Laurel Race #7:


Private Drama 10-1


First time starter gets Bracho in debut. Trainer only has three starts but has done well. Two of her best works were out of the gate and catches a sub par group.
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Old 12-17-2017, 11:36 PM   #185
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think you have wrong race
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Old 12-18-2017, 10:34 AM   #186
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think you have wrong race
You are correct, it is race #5.
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Old 12-18-2017, 09:54 PM   #187
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Mahoning Valley Race #4:


Freekson 20-1

A suddenly improved speed figure in a young horse catches my attention. Closed to break maiden then a game third while on the lead in last.

Race #5:


If You Believe 6-1

First off the claim for a good trainer. Catches 3 suspect speed types. Can track a contested pace and pick up the leaders in the stretch.
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Old 12-19-2017, 07:38 PM   #188
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Gulfstream Race #5:


Raining Lemons 8-1


Forgive the last because of the yielding turf, and you have a horse that usually runs her race. Get Velazquez and a trainer that is good off a break. If you do not like this one...

Analista 12-1


Get a solid trainer and jockey. Steadily improving figures and the addition of blinkers might just put this one in position to wire the field, or first run on suspect speed.

Gulfstream Race #6:


Coleman Rocky 12-1


Caught a off track coming off a break and disappointed as the favorite at this level. Had no chance in last and catches 2 favorites with declining figures. Third start since break, gets a good jockey, and might have the best closing kick in the group.
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Old 12-21-2017, 12:23 AM   #189
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Aqueduct Race #2:


Wegotoldyougotsold 15-1


Rough start to career, rail draw and a bump from the outside, swung 3 wide into stretch and jockey decided to try to squeeze down the rail. Moves to the outside today so should be able to get a cleaner trip.


Gulfstream Race #9:


Storming My Way 20-1


Got some back class, solid jokey and trainer, also. Distance and surface is a concern here but the breeding says it should not be a problem. Repeat the last figure and a win is in reach.
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Old 12-21-2017, 12:58 PM   #190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
Aqueduct Race #2:


Wegotoldyougotsold 15-1


Rough start to career, rail draw and a bump from the outside, swung 3 wide into stretch and jockey decided to try to squeeze down the rail. Moves to the outside today so should be able to get a cleaner trip.


Gulfstream Race #9:


Storming My Way 20-1


Got some back class, solid jokey and trainer, also. Distance and surface is a concern here but the breeding says it should not be a problem. Repeat the last figure and a win is in reach.
The Aqueduct race should be Race #8...I like the as well. Should be the right price. Good luck!
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Old 12-21-2017, 11:58 PM   #191
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The Aqueduct race should be Race #8...I like the as well. Should be the right price. Good luck!
Thanks for pointing out my error, I would hate to bet the wrong race with a $21.00 winner.
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Old 12-22-2017, 12:07 AM   #192
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Aqueduct Race #3:


She's So Fine 8-1


5 wins in the last 6 starts, and Ortiz in the saddle. I don't see 8-1 on this one at all, and would be shocked at those odds. One of those times where if you do see 6 to 8 -1, it would make you wonder if this is just a prep for the 2nd try. But if at 4 to 5 -1 should be taken seriously.
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Old 12-23-2017, 11:40 AM   #193
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Hey Jay

You only have to worry about these few who are already Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1

Code:
RowNum:	Date:	Race:	PgmNum:	Horse:	RaceCond:	Distance:	Trainer:	Odds:	Surface:
1	12-23-2017	1st race	3	Honor and Pleasure (NY)	Claiming	Seven Furlongs	T Albertrani	2/1#	Dirt
2	12-23-2017	3rd race	7	Lady Suebee (KY)	Maiden Special Weight	Six Furlongs	C C Brown	4/5#	Dirt
3	12-23-2017	4th race	4	Blewitt (NY)	Allowance	One Mile	T A Pletcher	4/5#	Dirt
4	12-23-2017	5th race	4	Harlan Punch (KY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	One Mile	D Jacobson	5/2#	Dirt
5	12-23-2017	5th race	7	Gift Box (KY)	Allowance Optional Claiming	One Mile	C C Brown	2/1#	Dirt
6	12-23-2017	7th race	7	Threefiveindia (KY)	Stakes	Six Furlongs	C C Brown	2/1#	Dirt
They represent only 6.8% of the entire card at Aqueduct before scratches!!!

So I suspect there will be some big prices today at Aqueduct!!!

C C Brown’s Morning Line Favorites have been struggling since November!!!

Whatever strategy you use for long shots might work well today!!!
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Old 12-23-2017, 12:19 PM   #194
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Aqueduct Race #2:


Big Auk 20-1


Improved in last and gets to move up in class and is put in with state breds. Jockey sticks and a little more improvement gets it done.


Race #8:


Alex The Terror 12-1


Claimed and exploded for Pletcher, now gets a class test. Pletcher gets a repeat performance and maybe the win.
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Old 12-24-2017, 04:05 PM   #195
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Taking a big shot in GP 9th, with Sunshine Treasure currently on the board at 52/1!!!
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