On Brisnet prime number criteria

[Light]

I think the obvious answer here is that Tough Times shows a $850K sale and a $300K stud fee.

Yamano Maker shows an $85K stud fee. There is no $ disclosure between the Breeder and owner.

So are you going to downgrade a horse who cost $1.15M to a horse that cost only $85K in just their second start? I don't think so. Even Secretariat lost his first start so my guess is they will give the millionaire horse the benefit of the doubt.

[Robert Fischer]

Yea, prime power was tailored for 'Turf' (and I think it was a mile off of 6.5dirt)

If it were 6.5 dirt again, I believe the ratings would have favored YM.


that was a WEIRD betting race on the surface...
I happened to tune in out of boredom while watching Del Mar replays (A for Aqueduct is usually what I click to get to replays as a default 'background').

The Linda Rice firster is clearly a nice animal on the video, and my initial thought was that he may be live.

Then I looked at the form and watched the race. Easy Goer(or whatever his name was) took more money first out vs Yamano Maker(or whatever his name was), but YM ran a significantly better race...

...Then yesterday, EASY was taking all the money. WTF?? Is EAsy a really good colt who has yet to figure things out?? Is Easy owned by someone who likes to bet their own horses heavy (like certain partnerships)? Is word out that YM has an issue??

Just wayyy to weird on the tote for me. I can't bet when I don't know.

Yawanna Makeup or whoever looked like a HUGE overlay. Then he wins easily and EASY or whoever was the same sluggish runner that he was first time out... They just ran exactly to form. The odds must be crazy.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Yes, if you watch the replay of their common first race, Yamano Maker did run a superior race, dueling on the front end the whole race while 3,4 and 6 wide into the stretch...Tough Times sits in behind the first flight, moves to the rail by mid race, cut a clean corner and sneaks up the rail, saving all the ground, many lengths compared with the ground loss of Yamano Maker....

...so I agree with Robert, that if the 2nd career race was calc’ed as a dirt sprint instead of a turf route, that Yamano Maker would probably have a higher Bris power rating than Tough Times...

...I’m also agreeing with Light and others, who suggest that the rather high stud and sale prices, plus the sire’s progenys’ decent turf stats may account largely for the difference here...

Also, there may be a skew due to the “Impact Value” for that distance being high for “Sustained runners” which Tough Times was listed as...so there may be an interface between Bris’s “Impact Value and Tables” shown above the Summary, and each runner’s running style...which really wouldn’t surprise me that much...

...so really, a false Impact Value for Sustained wins for the race category may have greatly contributed to Tough Times rather unusual higher score over Yamano Maker...

...still hoping others will chime in with their own program ratings for these 2 runners just for comparisons...

[therussmeister]

According to BRIS today's distance and surface does not enter into the equation.

Next, let’s go to the Prime Power rating and ranking (located next to the career record). This is one rating per horse, and it is Bloodstock Research’s most predictive number. Prime Power employs a sophisticated algorithm to combine many factors -- pace, class, speed, form, etc. -- into one rating. While the number does pinpoint a high percentage of winners, it does not separate dirt and turf nor sprints and routes. It only points out how well this runner has been running recently regardless of surface and distance.

If a horse ranks high on the Prime Power rating but his last three races have been dirt sprints, it doesn’t mean very much if today’s race is nine furlongs on the grass. The same is true if the horse bled, had trouble in a race or caught a track he didn’t like (sloppy or muddy track, poor post, etc.). Be forgiving for a low ranking if the runner has not been competing at his correct distance and surface.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=ulthowto

[Speed Figure]

I did not bet this race as the #4 ML was to low to become a highlighted overlay. I really can't see how the #12 could be rated higher. My homegrown PP rating PER had the #11 rated 2nd behind the #1A and the #12 was rated 4th in that rating.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey

Yes, if you watch the replay of their common first race, Yamano Maker did run a superior race, dueling on the front end the whole race while 3,4 and 6 wide into the stretch...Tough Times sits in behind the first flight, moves to the rail by mid race, cut a clean corner and sneaks up the rail, saving all the ground, many lengths compared with the ground loss of Yamano Maker....

completely agree with your assessment of that previous race.

Public is generally so sharp in these situations that given the big difference in price, I assumed that there was inside information.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by therussmeister

According to BRIS today's distance and surface does not enter into the equation.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=ulthowto

Thanks for the clarification that the BPP “does not separate dirt and turf nor sprints and routes. It only points out how well this runner has been running recently regardless of surface and distance.”

...That is why this is puzzling since they both exited the same race in which Yamano Maker clearly performed better yet received a lower rating...

...and now we have one poster, with their program, that begins to confirm my suspicion, that in most user programs, Yamano Maker will clearly be ranked higher than Tough Times...so what in Bris’s “sophisticated algorithm” is causing this difference...?

[Poindexter]

The odds they went off at in the common race is the reason for the
"puzzling" disparity in their bris prime power ratings. Tough Times was 8/5 in the common race the other 9/2. I assume (pure speculation) the off track in that race probably meant that they weighted the final odds from that race even more than normal. But final odds do play a big part in determining Bris Prime power rating based off of what I have noticed in past races.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

The odds they went off at in the common race is the reason for the
"puzzling" disparity in their bris prime power ratings. Tough Times was 8/5 in the common race the other 9/2. I assume (pure speculation) the off track in that race probably meant that they weighted the final odds from that race even more than normal. But final odds do play a big part in determining Bris Prime power rating based off of what I have noticed in past races.

That would make some sense and we often see the “well bet in debut” comment...in this case, they both have the “well bet in debut” comment attached...there must be a fairly established pattern of “well bet in previous races” runners that achieve success later on...which makes sense...

[davew]

Yamano Maker entered at Aqueduct .. Saturday 1/12 ... BPP is 128.3

3 workouts since the win on 11/28

[agameofskill]

Tough Times went off 8/5 in that debut race, while YM went off 9/2. That's the difference in Prime Power, folks.

[davew]

Yamano Maker entered again on Sat 4/6 11th race

1/12 race pressed to 2nd call then faded finished 7th out of 10
7 listed works since then this race same conditions

BPP back to 123.8 and last in this field of 12

[davew]

Tough Times making another comeback today AQU6 trying to break maiden.

Yamano Maker (JPN) has not won since breaking maiden and now going shorter.

[JohnGalt1]

I use Bris Premium pps. I never look at the Prime Power Ratings.

How can I/we take seriously a rating no one knows how it is computed?

[casey]

THE ONLY FACTOR THAT MATTERS ARE THE RESULTS.