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03-30-2017, 11:08 PM
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#46
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HuggingTheRail
I find that (as a general statement) there are more beaten favs in MC than most races. Horses that have ran 2nd or 3rd for a few starts get bet more heavily than I feel they should
I will try to find a sleeper horse - maybe one or two starts with mediocre form. If I can't find one of those, I will look at a FTS
In this race, I pass on all those with starts as I don't see any that are likely to improve much off of their past races, and a couple will not offer value
So, I ended up on a FTS .... think there is value there
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Okay. See, I don't like (i.e., avoid) MC races. I can't figure them out.
But, there are 3 FTS in this race and you selected just one, I was just curious. I had looked at FTS in Mdn/MC races a long time ago and it was just my opinion that FTS don't win very often. It was just an observation on my part without gathering data.
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03-31-2017, 01:29 AM
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#47
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,567
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HuggingTheRail
I usually gravitate to maiden claimers, with a vulnerable or lukewarm favourite, so Friday's last race has caught my eye - and with a field of 10!!
Quick notes
1 - toss
2 - FTS
3 - ML Favourite - not really impressed by his last start...
4 - FTS
5 - plodder, possible for bottom of verticals
6 - beaten 2x favourite, rider change, wouldn't be surprised if this one goes off as post time fav. Could win, but expect this one to be an underlay. Wouldn't be suprised if this one becomes a double digit race maiden
7 - taking the drop from 2 non-descript MSW starts, though speed figs put him in the hunt. A threat, and maybe worth a shot if he goes off at his 5-1 ML
8 - FTS
9 - Decent race in debut. Off two months, took 4 weeks to work after debut, then off another 3 weeks before next work. A threat, but has question marks
10 - dropping slightly in price off a fair debut
None of the horses with previous starts jump off the page. If the 8 looks good in the paddock and on post parade, he's my pick
8 w 7,9,10
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Interesting.
You mention the "question marks" surrounding the ...but then you select the FTS -- a horse with obvious "questions marks" of its own. Why are the question marks of the more perplexing than the question marks of the ?
This is hardly my kind of race because of the many "question marks"...but, if forced to chance a minor wager...then I would bet the .
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"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
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03-31-2017, 10:57 AM
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#48
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,115
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
Interesting.
You mention the "question marks" surrounding the ...but then you select the FTS -- a horse with obvious "questions marks" of its own. Why are the question marks of the more perplexing than the question marks of the ?
This is hardly my kind of race because of the many "question marks"...but, if forced to chance a minor wager...then I would bet the .
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I agree he is probably the one to beat,but i have one rule only....no maidens at a short price,even more so when there are "question marks".
My guess is he will be favored here.
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03-31-2017, 11:25 AM
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#49
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HuggingTheRail
...
Quick notes
1 - toss
2 - FTS
3 - ML Favourite - not really impressed by his last start...
4 - FTS
5 - plodder, possible for bottom of verticals
6 - beaten 2x favourite, rider change, wouldn't be surprised if this one goes off as post time fav. Could win, but expect this one to be an underlay. Wouldn't be suprised if this one becomes a double digit race maiden
7 - taking the drop from 2 non-descript MSW starts, though speed figs put him in the hunt. A threat, and maybe worth a shot if he goes off at his 5-1 ML
8 - FTS
9 - Decent race in debut. Off two months, took 4 weeks to work after debut, then off another 3 weeks before next work. A threat, but has question marks
10 - dropping slightly in price off a fair debut
None of the horses with previous starts jump off the page. If the 8 looks good in the paddock and on post parade, he's my pick
8 w 7,9,10
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Okay, I will play along and wet my feet with what is historically my worst time of the year. At least this one could kind-of pass for an inner dirt dandy.
1 - Ran in one of the earliest of two-year-old races of NYRA '16, vanished for nearly a year, reappears in hyper-realistic spot and runs pretty lousy. Can excuse both as jumping-off points and love that he came back with a good work off the race, but needs to improve a whole lot to do anything more than boost some exotic pays at best.
2 - FTS cost $25k and starts for $25k for top barn. But, this looks like one to let other people cover just because its Rudy.
3 - Hard to believe that this slowpoke could be 3-1 away from the Lakes.
4 - Frost Giant is representing with his third foal in the first four of the field and like the other two... takes some creativity to get into, primarily the barns decent returns with debuters at the level.
5 - First glance he looks a mess of nothing but really, he's just done roughly the same thing that almost every contender has done, just a handful more times thus eliminating any sex appeal.
6 - Seems like a real cheap horse. All of these kind of seem that way to a degree, but he seems like he actually might have talent. Cheap in his approach. Looks like he'd find a way to the crack the bottom of the super in the Maiden Stakes at Rillito.
7 - Probably the most interesting member of the field, just because he has an actual angle to work with as he dips in for a tag after two starts against breed maiden allowance runners.
8 - You've got a Linda Rice FTS that has been at the farm until coming to the track a bit and uncorking a trio of generic breezes at intervals that lack any symmetry. That sounds like a horse that's begging to take way more action that it probably warrants by default.
9 - Like the eight and the Rudys, this one just glows logical because it's Pletcher, he ran okay, and he's only been beaten one time in his life. But it's not a very good race and this looks like another tough one to like at the likely odds.
10 - Tried to make a case, but outside draw, lifeless debut, lack of comeback work off of debut conspire to steer me away.
If I had to play the race, I think I'd land on win plays on and/or at the right prices and even maybe some exotics keying off of them with other obvious players.
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-Robert James Smith, 1989
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03-31-2017, 11:59 AM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 1,115
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In the 3rd i think the Bajan Summer may be able to work out a forwardly placed trip from the outside and could wake up at a price.
Hardly a win machine but could be catching some of these at the right time as he takes a needed drop.
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03-31-2017, 12:39 PM
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#51
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
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I was just going through the sixth race and saw a pedigree that looked familiar. By Posse out of the Freud mare Healthy Debate. Because I saw it looking at this race first. We've got full-brothers running today on the same card, Tricky Posse and It's Debatable. For those of you that think that families control NYRA racing.
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"You make me feel like I am fun again."
-Robert James Smith, 1989
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03-31-2017, 01:09 PM
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#52
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
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...and now that I've looked at the race and don't quite feel like I'm lost on the main yet - and figured I ought not clog up the new contest thread with ineligible plays because of the 11 am deadline - I'd maybe be considering using Tricky Posse for the contest.
My first thought is that they rolled the dice on a Finger Lakes maiden winner and claimed a complete bum. That's probably the right take.
But, is it inconceivable that he just absolutely loathed the inner surface? That the claim wasn't a total shot in the dark - he was a big price that day for the $25k - but that they did some due diligence and there is more horse here than he's been showing all winter?
He's 15-1 morning line and I hate every horse in this race. Everyone is vulnerable. Who can improve even some at a square price and get the best of a field that is probably already heavy with horses that will be saying goodbye after they get beat at this level yet again? I think I'd take a shot at the morning line price or better here.
__________________
"You make me feel like I am fun again."
-Robert James Smith, 1989
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03-31-2017, 01:47 PM
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#53
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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I got a crazy pick in the 6th...but I'm actually gonna bet this
TRICKY POSSE 15-1 ML. This horse was "claimed-for-nothing" a couple back....Look at both his last two races-- the running lines are more than a little unusual. He's had a nice work since....this horse may be much better than appears recently.-NCG
ps: sorry for not reading your post directly above, John.....seems we have the same idea
Last edited by NorCalGreg; 03-31-2017 at 01:52 PM.
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03-31-2017, 05:17 PM
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#54
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Veteran
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,428
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Race 8 6.5f oc $69k 3up 8 runners
My contenders are the the gomper (m/l 5), hey jabber jaw (8) and gypsum johnny (4).
I see running with the who won last and is moving up prior to last race.
So, I'll select the to win who I can see passing these other two in 77 +/-.
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03-31-2017, 06:13 PM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,084
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Live plays for Friday, March 31st on AQU-Main:
AQU-R1- ML 5-1 Snow Fighter
AQU-R2- ML 10-1 Blarney Stones
AQU-R3- ML 10-1 Bug Juice
AQU-R4- ML 6-1 Brooklyn Gerty
AQU-R5- ML 6-1 Abounding Spirit
AQU-R8- ML 15-1 Brewing
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Somewhere between very good and exceptional. Bookend winners of early p5, sandwiching 3 favorites (2 of them odds on) for 357-1 odds.
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03-31-2017, 09:11 PM
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#56
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
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I think I picked one that ran last and called a winner hopeless in the Rillito Hopeful. Welcome back to the main track indeed.
__________________
"You make me feel like I am fun again."
-Robert James Smith, 1989
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03-31-2017, 09:32 PM
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#57
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Live plays for Friday, March 31st on AQU-Main:
AQU-R1- ML 5-1 Snow Fighter
AQU-R2- ML 10-1 Blarney Stones
AQU-R3- ML 10-1 Bug Juice
AQU-R4- ML 6-1 Brooklyn Gerty
AQU-R5- ML 6-1 Abounding Spirit
AQU-R8- ML 15-1 Brewing
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Results for Friday:
Snow Fighter [5-1] 1st - 9.10 4.80 3.00
Abounding Spirit [6-1] 1st - 14.40 6.20 3.90
Total Plays= 6
Total Winners= 2
Strike rate= 33%
Net Daily Total= +11.50
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03-31-2017, 09:44 PM
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#58
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Buckle Up
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 10,614
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Live plays for Saturday, April 1st on AQU-Main:
AQU- R1- Just Got Out (ON) 6-1 A Arroyo -C F Martin
AQU- R2- Littlemissbusiness (FL) 5-1 K Carmouche -J C Englehart
AQU- R3- Alex the Terror (KY) 8-1 R Montanez -J T Toscano, Jr.
AQU- R6- Mama Joyce (FL) 6-1 C H Velasquez -G C Contessa
AQU- R7- Pretty Enuff (NY) 6-1 I Ortiz, Jr. -J C Englehart
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03-31-2017, 10:40 PM
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#59
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Exotic1
Somewhere between very good and exceptional. Bookend winners of early p5, sandwiching 3 favorites (2 of them odds on) for 357-1 odds.
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Nothing wrong with those picks, E-1. BROOKLYN GERTY was almost my maiden pick of the day, until I saw that FLUX CAPACITOR earlier on the card.
Don't know why people keep betting gutless wonder BLARNEY STONES (no offense if anyone did)--next stop Finger Lakes for that one.
I really thought trainer Donk had something in mind when dropping a claim ticket on Tricky Posse a couple back.
That's usually the case, anyway.
Evidently was another stab by a trainer that hasn't done much in a while.
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03-31-2017, 10:48 PM
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#60
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ReplayRandall
Results for Friday:
Snow Fighter [5-1] 1st - 9.10 4.80 3.00
Abounding Spirit [6-1] 1st - 14.40 6.20 3.90
Total Plays= 6
Total Winners= 2
Strike rate= 33%
Net Daily Total= +11.50
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If we're keeping stats here--not a problem
Last edited by NorCalGreg; 03-31-2017 at 10:52 PM.
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