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Old 06-15-2019, 02:18 PM   #16
Robert Fischer
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The (other) Pegasus Stakes

Lucky for Maximum Security, there is no great speed/pace in the race. That's his big question mark. While running in the Belmont could have risked the remaining campaign by gambling on pushing the horse for too long of a drive, the Belmont did fit Maximum Security's special talent (breaking to the front and then rating down the pace, before delivering a winning drive). Shorter routes don't always afford that luxury.

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Maybe Navarro will have a fresh $16K Claim to compete.
Navarro does have an entry. Identifier Always a danger to run through a wall and improve dramatically, especially at Monmouth.


The second best horse on paper is actually Todd Pletcher's King for a Day. As a 2yo, King for a Day ran the top performance in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes into a collapsing pace, against a salty group of derby trail-bound rivals. He finished a literal fourth that day, so not only did he establish himself as a lower-tier Kentucky Derby prospect that day, he also looked to be an excellent bet back, perhaps against horses like Signalman who had higher literal finishing positions. However, he disappeared from the scene, having clearly suffered a setback and did not even post a published work until February 28, of his 3yo season. He has since run a solid race, winning the Sir Barton vs. a paltry field with only four rivals. If Maximum Security is asked to leave his comfort zone(which seems unlikely on paper, but is possible should Navarro/Paco send), King for a Day can win this race.
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Old 06-15-2019, 03:50 PM   #17
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I thought the Wests made it clear early on after the DQ that they were taking their toys and going home and not running in the other 2 TC races.
Not being a mind-reader, can you or anyone else say, with 100% certainty, that they would have run in the other 2 TC races even if they were not taken down?

No, you cannot.

Given the poor sportsmanship shown by taking toys and going home, I don't usually expect people who show bad sportsmanship to suddenly show some. You know, when your kid acts like that in school after a game they lose, they usually send your kid to the shrinks to find out why they can't play right with others.

Life throws a lot of both fair and unfair things at all of us......it's how you handle them that counts. Winning doesn't make you a big person...how you handle losing is part of the big picture.

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Old 06-15-2019, 03:57 PM   #18
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To me, that's by far the biggest change in racing. Several decades ago, you confidently could pitch any horse not started in the last three weeks. Most systems, in fact, prescribed a cutt-off of just 17 days, and horses that skipped even a single start in old Waterford's 7-day book rotation almost NEVER won.

No time today to explore reasons for this evolution, but it WOULD make for a compelling thread.
It's been discussed tangentially in a lot of threads, why don't horses run more and/or have longer careers.

1) For the past 40 years they've been bred to be precocious with speed and/or soundness of the sire has been disregarded, so horses don't/can't handle a heavy race schedule.

2) Whatever magic elixirs certain trainers give their horses enable them to be as or more prepared to race on fewer races and workouts. In fact, they have only a few bullets to fire so the prep race would be a waste.

3) The growing popularity of Sheets/Thorograph thinking amongst trainers so that they believe giving longer periods of rest is beneficial. It's partly accurate and partly self-fulfilling prophecy, but it's hard to say how much of each is true.
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Old 06-16-2019, 09:25 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer View Post
Lucky for Maximum Security, there is no great

The second best horse on paper is actually Todd Pletcher's King for a Day. As a 2yo, King for a Day ran the top performance in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes into a collapsing pace, against a salty group of derby trail-bound rivals. He finished a literal fourth that day, so not only did he establish himself as a lower-tier Kentucky Derby prospect that day, he also looked to be an excellent bet back, perhaps against horses like Signalman who had higher literal finishing positions. However, he disappeared from the scene, having clearly suffered a setback and did not even post a published work until February 28, of his 3yo season. He has since run a solid race, winning the Sir Barton vs. a paltry field with only four rivals. If Maximum Security is asked to leave his comfort zone(which seems unlikely on paper, but is possible should Navarro/Paco send), King for a Day can win this race.
So, are you going to try to beat MS, or wheel him?
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Old 06-16-2019, 10:41 AM   #20
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So, are you going to try to beat MS, or wheel him?
Will be interested to see what the non tourist price (Betfair strarting price) will be on max. I am guessing 1.25 or so.

Allan
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Old 06-16-2019, 10:42 AM   #21
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MAXIMUM SECUITY

Hoping MS wins by open lengths: drawing the 2 post against this crew
on a dry track should provide zero drama .

That said, bigger opportunities include Saratoga and, hopefully,The Breeders Cup.

That said, MS has an uncoupled "mate" and Pletcher has 2 uncoupled entries.

The show pool could be the highlight of this race..
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Old 06-16-2019, 01:01 PM   #22
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So, are you going to try to beat MS, or wheel him?
To be honest, I'm focusing on making a series tickets for today's Rainbow-6 'Mandatory Payout' at Santa Anita, and nothing else. I'm looking to practice such wagers, so I can specialize in these jackpots.

I just rolled out of bed, walked the dog, and set the coffee up (and it's after Noon here, on the East Coast).


If I was working with a team, or wagering on my own at a decent level, I would use both Maximum Security and King for a Day as 'A's IF I had a pick-4 or or longer surrounding sequence that held other value.


Wouldn't 'shock' me if King for a Day won. Like I said, Maximum Security has never battled extended early pace where he isn't able to rate down and control, and although that's unlikely today, there's a slim chance that it could happen if Illuminate (or whatever the Navarro horse's name is) has been 'moving forward' and is ridden aggressively.

Even without help, there's a slim chance that randomness/trip/todays-form is enough for King for a Day to win outright.

But, I will not bet on it. I expect Maximum Security to probably win at a very short price. Will be interesting to check later.
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Old 06-16-2019, 01:24 PM   #23
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Sort of a strange recent workout pattern for Maximum Security. Before the derby, he worked April 29, 21, and 13 (6, 14 and 22 days before the race. Since, he only worked once, May 22nd (26 days before today). I can understand him skipping a few weeks after the derby, because the trainer said he didn’t come out of it very well, but why skip all those days since?
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Old 06-16-2019, 01:43 PM   #24
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west is unfairly criticized in my opinion. everyone yells how demanding the triple crown trail is. so whats the point of running in anymore of them? you have the best 3 year old in the world that deserves the rest and will be a better horse for it. as for sour grapes? ya i would be like west too. some plodder is handed the derby who was never touched it was complete robbery. there is enough evidence that the 1 horse very possibly ran up on the heels of maximum security. that right there is more than enough to leave the result stand.

40 years of doing this i would say i will never understand the logic. even if you see the bumping as cause (I don't by the way) you should use the same thinking that they would use in the NFL. does the ref make the same bumping call in a preseason game as he would in the super bowl? yet we all understand and endorse that thinking. its the same here.

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Old 06-16-2019, 01:55 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Redboard View Post
Sort of a strange recent workout pattern for Maximum Security. Before the derby, he worked April 29, 21, and 13 (6, 14 and 22 days before the race. Since, he only worked once, May 22nd (26 days before today). I can understand him skipping a few weeks after the derby, because the trainer said he didn’t come out of it very well, but why skip all those days since?


Yea, and for a stakes horse with tactical speed, his works are unusually slow.

Note - that he did work an additional time Yesterday, June 15 3f 37.00 5/19.


Some of the slow posted times are due to where Jason apparently prefers his workout riders to ask the horses, which doesn't match exactly with the way works are timed, but they have been generally 'slow' no matter how you time it. It isn't that Maximum Security can't run faster, it's simply trainer methodology.
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Old 06-16-2019, 02:04 PM   #26
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Yea, and for a stakes horse with tactical speed, his works are unusually slow.

Note - that he did work an additional time [B]Yesterday, June 15 3f 37.00 .
Thanks Robert. I bought these PPs yesterday and it didnt have yesterday's work.

Not that clears anything up. Very rare to work the day before.
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Old 06-16-2019, 02:37 PM   #27
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Thanks Robert. I bought these PPs yesterday and it didnt have yesterday's work.

Not that clears anything up. Very rare to work the day before.
I think Lucky Debonair worked the day before his Derby win.
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Old 06-16-2019, 03:20 PM   #28
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west is unfairly criticized in my opinion. everyone yells how demanding the triple crown trail is. so whats the point of running in anymore of them? you have the best 3 year old in the world that deserves the rest and will be a better horse for it. as for sour grapes? ya i would be like west too. some plodder is handed the derby who was never touched it was complete robbery. there is enough evidence that the 1 horse very possibly ran up on the heels of maximum security. that right there is more than enough to leave the result stand.

40 years of doing this i would say i will never understand the logic. even if you see the bumping as cause (I don't by the way) you should use the same thinking that they would use in the NFL. does the ref make the same bumping call in a preseason game as he would in the super bowl? yet we all understand and endorse that thinking. its the same here.
When will this constant whining about the Derby DQ and putting down of other horses ever end? We can't get away from it no matter what the theme of the current thread is. People are getting sick and tired of it.
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Old 06-16-2019, 04:57 PM   #29
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Don't know how he'll go but for 1-9 he doesn't look well on the track.
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Old 06-16-2019, 05:05 PM   #30
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Now maybe West will shut up about how good his horse is.
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