Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


View Poll Results: Which best describes your view on ground loss
Critical part of trip handicapping. I spend a lot of time on it 49 25.00%
I look at it, but it's somewhat overrated 35 17.86%
I never pay attention 42 21.43%
I only pay attention on biased days 5 2.55%
I only pay attention when it's extreme 26 13.27%
I only pay attention when the horse is being used hard 8 4.08%
Option 4 and 5 6 3.06%
Option 4 and 6 2 1.02%
Option 5 and 6 6 3.06%
Option 4, 5 and 6 17 8.67%
Voters: 196. This poll is closed

Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 05-10-2019, 08:15 PM   #61
bobphilo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
This is different in my opinion, because there isn't supposed to be judgement used. The tech fails way too often and I think what we are getting here is somebody watched the races and fixed the faulty readings from the radio transmitters. That is fine, it is good that they fixed it. But trying to pass off the data as if it were done using the Trakus system (if that is what is happening, we'll never know) is not a good look. They should use some transparency here. Hard to trust the data when they don't.

This race was scrutinized by so many people because it is the Derby and they had to act. Does anyone for a second think a typical Tuesday race at Indiana Grand is getting this kind of scrutiny?
Maybe the technology is less reliable in weird races like the Derby, though you've seen a lot more races than me and would be more aware of the times they get regular races wrong. I agree that if they had to go back and do it manually they should say so. I'm glad that whatever they did here was accurate. Maybe they looked at Class's post and the TG figures. LOL
bobphilo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-15-2019, 12:03 AM   #62
bpiets
Veteran
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: totonto
Posts: 618
Jockey poor rides have a lot to do with this as well jocks rating the horses too long etc...
bpiets is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-15-2019, 01:52 PM   #63
dnlgfnk
Registered User
 
dnlgfnk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: St. Louis suburb
Posts: 1,760
The only reason Flaming Glory remains etched in my memory is that he appeared in the entries on a day when my sister and bro-in-law were seeking my opinion on a trip to Arlington for Million weekend, 2008.

After the wide trip on June 25, 2008 (video a bit grainy now) where he went 4T, 5-6 ES, and held his ground evenly through the stretch, I became interested in him...


...on July 13. Again he encountered virtually the same trip, 4T and entering stretch, again hanging on evenly through the stretch...


Now up against some of the same rivals again (Lord Vader, Classic Sky, Stars of the Sea), he finally got the anticipated good trip from PP 3, as the 5th betting choice.


While in my visual handicapping days I made the mistake of making decisions about a horse soon after the race, having joined the "shop for overlays" crowd for a long while now, I find ground loss invaluable as a predictive factor when considering low bet horses who have consecutively saved ground, or potential overlays who have undergone Flaming Glory trips and figure to experience a different scenario in their next race.

Additionally, after years of observation I subscribe to a much more subtle, nuanced, consistently "biased" track (not dictating, but influencing) that gradually favors the outside on straights due to the movement of moisture, and the rail on turns due to simple mathematics. I find the daily, dramatic reactions to consecutive results (#1, #1, #2 or #9, #12, #10, etc.)
to be exaggerated. The biggest effects are, of course, when a horse has benefited from one aspect of the track and is encountering nearly the opposite today, all under the umbrella of pace, resulting in value.
dnlgfnk is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-16-2019, 02:33 PM   #64
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
Quote:
Originally Posted by dnlgfnk View Post
While in my visual handicapping days I made the mistake of making decisions about a horse soon after the race, having joined the "shop for overlays" crowd for a long while now,
I agree with everything you said.

I'm going to hijack my own thread, but this was an interesting comment because it's something I still think about all the time.

Making an Odds Line is fraught with peril because we are all operating with incomplete information (sometimes incorrect information) and have an imperfect understanding of everything. That makes it difficult to know when your odds line is wrong or the public is wrong.

On the flip side, looking for horses you think may have some hidden quality that will be underappreciated by the crowd (or identify a horse that's not as good as he looks to bet against) does not guarantee that the horse will be spotted well or bet the way you think next time. You may be right about the horse and still be betting an underlay because the crowd is catching on or at least aware of this one.

It's a kind of strategic dilemma that I've gone back and forth on for a long time.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-25-2019, 01:11 PM   #65
woodtoo
Registered User
 
woodtoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: donkeys ride from ASD
Posts: 12,995
Ground loss can be devastating if you are near waters edge.
__________________
'complicated business folks, complicated business.'
woodtoo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-28-2019, 01:13 AM   #66
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Ground loss was devastating to Vino Rosso today.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-28-2019, 07:19 AM   #67
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
Ground loss was devastating to Vino Rosso today.
That was an interesting one. I thought he was screwed when JRV didn't take back a little and save some ground on the first turn, but turns out the position was more important than the ground loss. He was probably better than the margin of victory would indicate.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-28-2019, 09:43 AM   #68
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
I haven't reviewed that card yet, but Vino Russo could be an example of what I've been taking about. I'll check later or tomorrow.

I watch replays from all over the country. There are days when the rail is clearly not bad, but a LOT of horses are also making very good runs after losing a lot of ground on one or both turns. So much so, it seems like ground loss is only a minor disadvantage if any at all.

So it's not a good rail and it's not a bad rail, but it's certainly different than the theoretical "lose approximately a length for each path wide".

If you incorporate ground loss into your figures on a day like that you'll probably overstate the performances. It's not an infrequent occurrence. At some tracks it's practically the norm.

That's why on Preakness day I was saying there are "definition" issues.

Unquestionably, losing ground on the turn was a disadvantage on Preakness day (and Friday).

Is that an honest day or is that a good "inside" day?

Is the former scenario when it occurs honest or is it an "outside ok" day?

It doesn't matter what you call either. What matters is that you know there is a difference, are consistent, and it's in your notes.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 05-28-2019 at 09:52 AM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-28-2019, 10:31 AM   #69
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Don't really think there was a bad rail. I also seem to remember Vino was a horse that didn't run well in traffic and prefers to be outside horses.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-28-2019, 11:26 AM   #70
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
I just watched the replays. It's a tough day to evaluate because there were only 5 dirt races and a couple of the fields were small.

It looked to me like horses on the outside were moving just as well as horses on the inside and maybe I'd rather be in the 2 path than right on the rail, but I'm not going to get that picky. I don't think ground loss was a major negative.

I don't know how Beyer did the day, but it looks like he split the sprints and routes. He gave Vino Russo a 105. Trakus says VR ran 52 feet further than the Blitzkrieg. It also says he ran 26 feet further than Gift Box. That's a little less than I think, but whatever.

If you add all that ground loss to his figure and factor that he was fairly close to what looked like a pretty lively pace while very wide on the 1st turn, either that figure is too high, Vino Russo ran a monster race, or losing ground was not as much of a negative as "theory" suggests at SA yesterday.

I'm buying that he ran a new lifetime top and was very good, but I'm not buying that he's a monster. In my notes, that day is going in as "outside ok" as opposed to days where I think significant ground loss was a major negative.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"

Last edited by classhandicapper; 05-28-2019 at 11:40 AM.
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-28-2019, 02:29 PM   #71
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
That was an interesting one. I thought he was screwed when JRV didn't take back a little and save some ground on the first turn, but turns out the position was more important than the ground loss. He was probably better than the margin of victory would indicate.
I think a horse being in his comfortable style is likely going to trump any type of ground loss statistic on dirt.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 05-28-2019, 05:16 PM   #72
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
I think a horse being in his comfortable style is likely going to trump any type of ground loss statistic on dirt.
I think it depends on the track and day.

Take a look at the trip on Anothertwistafate in the Preakness. He was wide just off what appeared to be a fast pace into the first turn (which is typically a tough trip). He collapsed late as you'd expect. His Beyer figure dropped from consistent 94-95 last 3 outs to an 83.

With a very similar trip Vino Russo not only didn't collapse, he put up a lifetime top Beyer of 105. Aside from the fast early fractions, 2 other horses that were near the lead, Core Beliefs and Blitzkrieg both dropped back badly.

That's why I am saying either Vino Russo was a monster or those tracks were different.

I think the tracks were different.

People will call them both honest because the rail wasn't stone cold dead or clearly golden on either day and horses were winning in all paths in the stretch, but very often the turns are where the critical action is.

Horses that were wide on the turns at Pimlico that day seemed to be at a disadvantage (as they should be theoretically) and horses at SA yesterday seemed to be running OK and not hurt at all (albeit with a very limited sample).

Even if it turns out that Vino Russo is just a monster now, the point I am making about turns & ground loss comes up from time to time. On some days on some tracks, being wide on the turn(s) doesn't seem to matter much and on other days at other tracks it does. And that operates independent of standard dead rails and gold rails where the entire track is dictating the results.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-09-2019, 10:22 AM   #73
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,528
I'm pretty sure saving ground was more than just an advantage at Belmont on Friday and Saturday.

War of Will went from getting a trip that only God could provide (sitting inside behind a fast pace and cutting the corner on a day when saving ground on the turns was more advantageous than usual) to being hung wide close to the pace on even worse day of the same kind. This time he got the trip from hell.

His reality is probably closest to the Derby.

He fits with the best horses, but he was NOT winning the Derby if he wasn't interfered with and he wasn't winning the Preakness without that trip. He's BELOW the best horses.

I'm not sure who the best 3yo in the country is, but I sort of think it's between Tacitus, Maximum Security, and Global Campaign. I'd guess I like Tacitius & Global Campaign to move forward more than Maximum Security.

Given the bias aided and other trips and DQs none of those horses won one of the Triple Crown events.

(honorable mention to Sir Winston who is also getting better, but Tacitus was better yesterday and Global Campaign was better the race prior)
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-09-2019, 12:36 PM   #74
GMB@BP
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
I'm pretty sure saving ground was more than just an advantage at Belmont on Friday and Saturday.

War of Will went from getting a trip that only God could provide (sitting inside behind a fast pace and cutting the corner on a day when saving ground on the turns was more advantageous than usual) to being hung wide close to the pace on even worse day of the same kind. This time he got the trip from hell.

His reality is probably closest to the Derby.

He fits with the best horses, but he was NOT winning the Derby if he wasn't interfered with and he wasn't winning the Preakness without that trip. He's BELOW the best horses.

I'm not sure who the best 3yo in the country is, but I sort of think it's between Tacitus, Maximum Security, and Global Campaign. I'd guess I like Tacitius & Global Campaign to move forward more than Maximum Security.

Given the bias aided and other trips and DQs none of those horses won one of the Triple Crown events.

(honorable mention to Sir Winston who is also getting better, but Tacitus was better yesterday and Global Campaign was better the race prior)
I think Omaha Beach was a superior talent but we might not see him to next year.
GMB@BP is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 06-09-2019, 01:25 PM   #75
bobphilo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Palm Beach, Florida
Posts: 2,465
Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP View Post
I think Omaha Beach was a superior talent but we might not see him to next year.
Lets not forget Game Winner. He was probably best of all in the Derby and was even wider there than Tacitus was in the Belmont. Of course we don't know if he has matured since then like the others have.
bobphilo is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:08 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.