Max Security

[AMPHAR]

Figures suggest King for a day was more underrated vs. Max Security flopping.

DQ in the derby sucked but it did pump life into the sport as far as sports rivalry.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Certain according to you.

I can't speak for others, but I am pretty confident one of Game Winner, Tacitus, and Maximum Security ran the best race in the Derby. Which one I'm far less sure. I'm confident by year's end Maximum Security will not be 3YO champion.

Can't agree with that.
MS did everything the hard way that day.
I believe he ran the best race - by far.

[Suff]

I thought MS ran a great race after nearly going to his knees out of the gate.

[taxicab]

MS race didn't bother me.
Doubt he was tightened up........and the Pletcher horse looks to be the goods.
I'd be surprised if MS doesn't win at least one more Grade 1 this year.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

Maximum Security debuted at GP for $16K
mainly because he had shown several
lackluster works prior to this at Monmouth.
Chances are, it's not his favorite surface.
.

Slow breezes are fairly typical of Servis's training style.

There wasn't much indication of the horse's ability coming into his debut that I saw other than his trainer's record with FTS and that he got bet.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Slow breezes are fairly typical of Servis's training style.

There wasn't much indication of the horse's ability coming into his debut that I saw other than his trainer's record with FTS and that he got bet.

Agreed.
He started to improve after travelling south.
Not losing the horse that day in the claim box was like hitting the jackpot.

[burnsy]

People make it sound like this horse was up the track. He lost by about a length, after issues dealing with the derby campaign and a crummy start, it happens. I love how people jump to conclusions. That's a race they can afford to lose and he ran well enough.
Stick a fork in him ...hes done.....

This coming from some of the same brain trusts that were saying Improbable and Game Winner are great...haven't won a damn race yet this year. Neither one. Ok got it...…….

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Suff

I thought MS ran a great race after nearly going to his knees out of the gate.

He had a bad start, but he quickly recovered and got his trip.

I think the pace pressure, which he wasn't used to, and perhaps being a short horse, did him in.

[Suff]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

He had a bad start, but he quickly recovered and got his trip.

I think the pace pressure, which he wasn't used to, and perhaps being a short horse, did him in.

The combination did him in. but doing a 1200 pound push up while everybody else hit their stride was the deal breaker. I like him more now than I did coming out of the Derby. He's a gladiator.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Suff

Originally Posted by Suff

The combination did him in. but doing a 1200 pound push up while everybody else hit their stride was the deal breaker. I like him more now than I did coming out of the Derby. He's a gladiator.

Forming opinions on these 'subtleties' (or not so subtle), where it requires some kind of (almost artistic) judgment to extrapolate what "may have happened if"..., are part of what make this game so interesting and fun.

If you can make a profit on these sort of opinions, you(the 'general you', not calling you out specifically, Mr. Suff), you are not only extremely gifted, but you are wayyyy better than me. If only I had that ability... I would be raking in the dough in Maiden and Turf racing... ahhh

Relative to my perspective, the profitable moments usually come from irrational emotion (which this race was a great example; Where you had a horse 1/9 because of his Kentucky Derby and Florida Derby, and then after the race you have your share of trolls who took shots at a horse (and his owner) who ran a strong race, and barely lost to a horse who happened to have run faster, and may have even capitalized on that stumble at the start), or races where the wagering is irrational due to relatively complex information (understanding that King for a Day was a worthy opponent is an example, but a dull one, while the Woody Stephens is a good example, but a complex one).

/tangent

anyway, these debatable events are quite fun

[Mulerider]

Originally Posted by Suff

The combination did him in. but doing a 1200 pound push up while everybody else hit their stride was the deal breaker. I like him more now than I did coming out of the Derby. He's a gladiator.

Bloodhorse quoting Baffert:

"The Haskell is a good race and an important race," Baffert said, "but I still have a lot of respect for Maximum Security, I still think he's the horse to beat among the 3-year-olds."

"Horses that stumble, it scares them a bit and gets them excited and they use themselves a little more. You could tell he was struggling and at the top of the stretch he was empty but he still went on. The ones who could do that in a situation like that are the good ones. It was like American Pharoah in the (2015) Travers, he was completely empty and he still gutted it out (and finished second). Only certain horses will do that. Point Given in the (2001) Haskell, he was empty and he gutted it out to win. The great ones will hang on for a quarter-mile when they are empty. Don't dismiss Maximum Security, he's still a good one."

"With a hard race in him he's really going to be ready," Baffert said. "Sometimes a loss is good for everyone because the pressure with a horse like him eases."

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Forming...…. Where you had a horse 1/9 because of his Kentucky Derby and Florida Derby, and then after the race you have your share of trolls who took shots at a horse (and his owner) who ran a strong race, and barely lost to a horse who happened to …..:

Actually he was 1/20 (0.05). but thanks for the tip on King for a Day. That's the first winner I had all year on anyone over 3-1.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Mulerider

Bloodhorse quoting Baffert:

"The Haskell is a good race and an important race," Baffert said, "but I still have a lot of respect for Maximum Security, I still think he's the horse to beat among the 3-year-olds."

"Horses that stumble, it scares them a bit and gets them excited and they use themselves a little more. You could tell he was struggling and at the top of the stretch he was empty but he still went on. The ones who could do that in a situation like that are the good ones. It was like American Pharoah in the (2015) Travers, he was completely empty and he still gutted it out (and finished second). Only certain horses will do that. Point Given in the (2001) Haskell, he was empty and he gutted it out to win. The great ones will hang on for a quarter-mile when they are empty. Don't dismiss Maximum Security, he's still a good one."

"With a hard race in him he's really going to be ready," Baffert said. "Sometimes a loss is good for everyone because the pressure with a horse like him eases."

I enjoyed that quote.

I tend to agree with him. You can tell more about a horse when the trip is rough or he's a bit short than you can when everything goes well. "Tested" may be an overused cliche, but you don't find out how good a horse really is or how willing he has to keep trying to win when tired until he's actually in a really tough spot and you hit his bottom.

I'm not so sure I came away as impressed as he did with this particular performance, but I still think he's a good horse that was probably a bit short.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Redboard

Actually he was 1/20 (0.05). but thanks for the tip on King for a Day. That's the first winner I had all year on anyone over 3-1.

thanks Redboard. means a lot for my little ego...

1/20 wow. I was engrossed w/ the Santa Anita Rainbow-6 mandatory stuff, and only checked the replay / adw odds.

Congrats to you for judging the info and making something happen.

Thought that post was invisible, as no one else commented on it, and there were a bunch of "Who??" and "Surprised that race was fast on Beyer TimeformUS" posts following the race.

Honestly, I thought Max was 'most likely' while an 'underlay'. Thought King for a Day was a worthy opponent and an 'overlay'. I wasn't super confident that he'd win 'today', but I'd bet my life - that if I bet that play over a long period of time I'd be significantly profitable.

Considering I also 'singled' Mucho Gusto (a race where I was much more confident), in hindsight it's a little upsetting that I did not bet a win 'parlay'.

King = overlayed @ 5.9/1 ($13.80)
Mucho = overlayed @ 1.9/1 ($5.90)

$100 parlay = $2035.50.

Not a huge score but it did pay about 2/3 of what my budget-ticket paid in the P-6, and enough to tell Baltimore Gas & Electric to 'stfu'.

[burnsy]

Man , he’s awful