The Baffert bias

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by bpiets

Yup....he is noted for letting his two year olds to develop as long as possible as horses are still growing physicaly and thier bones and other structure break down much to soon when raced or pushed in training or races as two year olds...one need only check out an interesting write up written by Kathleen Parker at The American-Canadian Horsewarrior Forum....under opinion ...

I think this is a bad rap. Most Baffert horses have short careers because that is what his owners want.

But when he got a gelding he could train for awhile, it turned out to be Game on Dude who was good for years.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

So the trick (or dilemma) is figuring out when you are dealing with a horse that's taking extra money that's probably appropriate and when you are dealing with a horse that isn't that good, is not getting much better, and is being overbet because Baffert is the trainer. That's harder than it looks until after it beats you or disappoints as the favorite.

This. If you have good reason to take a stand against a well bet Baffert then you will get value. It is perhaps worth noting Baffert through 118 starts is only winning at a 19% clip this year but still hitting the money at a strong 60% rate. This in contrast to last year when he won at a 32% clip while hitting the money 59% from 348 starts. Splitting the difference, you're gonna beat Baffert about three out of four times but be cautious leaving him out of the trifecta.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

This. If you have good reason to take a stand against a well bet Baffert then you will get value. It is perhaps worth noting Baffert through 118 starts is only winning at a 19% clip this year but still hitting the money at a strong 60% rate. This in contrast to last year when he won at a 32% clip while hitting the money 59% from 348 starts. Splitting the difference, you're gonna beat Baffert about three out of four times but be cautious leaving him out of the trifecta.

Exactly, I do the same thing with Brown and Pletcher here in Saratoga. A good way to play exactas is to use them but have another horse.

The exception is with horses like Improbable. That horse had multiple chances to win and could not close the deal. Those are tosses. Game Winner is approaching the same status. He was the only one I thought had a chance in the Derby of the three. But constantly making excuses for a horse taking that kind of money is hard to have faith in. Sometimes second best is the peak and then they regress.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Exactly, I do the same thing with Brown and Pletcher here in Saratoga. A good way to play exactas is to use them but have another horse.

The exception is with horses like Improbable. That horse had multiple chances to win and could not close the deal. Those are tosses. Game Winner is approaching the same status. He was the only one I thought had a chance in the Derby of the three. But constantly making excuses for a horse taking that kind of money is hard to have faith in. Sometimes second best is the peak and then they regress.

Colt had all the ability in the world but Baffert wasn't able to figure out how bring out his best . . . I was disappointed I wasn't able to see the full majesty of that elastic stride, no doubt Baffert is baffled and disappointed also. I thought the colt became disinterested in racing and winning; lost his competitive spirit . . . still time yet come the races later this year.