Improbable

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

If we go strictly by their Derby performances...then Improbable and War of Will could be considered of equal caliber. But if we give the horses a more comprehensive look...then Improbable separates himself from War of Will quite convincingly...IMO. And, given the track condition of the Derby...I prefer the comprehensive view in this instance.

To me, Improbable is the Preakness's deserving favorite...whereas War of Will is a rank outsider.

As a two-year-old, War of Will misses by ¾ in the G1 Summer and G3 Bourbon, is three back in the G1 BCJ and finally breaks his maiden @ 76k. Improbable wins first asking @ 50k, wins @ 100k and then the G1 Los Al. If the Experimental Free Handicap still existed, War of Will would be weighted higher based upon his higher placings in graded company.

As a three-year-old War of Will romps in the G3 LeComte, G2 Risen Star, suffers a minor injury comes ninth the Louisiana then comes four back in the Kentucky: two wins a ninth and a eighth. Improbable comes second in the G2 Rebel and G1 Arkansas then comes three back in the Kentucky: zero wins, two seconds and a fifth. Which is greater: two wins, ninth, eighth or zero wins, two seconds, fifth?

I’ve always liked Improbable - hope he wins the Preakness and goes in the Belmont, but based upon his performances as a three-year-old, I'm not convincingly convinced. I figure War of Will is seeking gonna mean business in this one and he ain’t gonna back out of it . . . should make for a good ol’ fashion hoss’ race.

[Aerocraft67]

I don't know about "rank outsider," but yeah, I'm against WoW as second choice. Several others have accomplished about as much at better prices and may have more upside. Alwaysmining, Anothertwistafate, and Win Win Win, for instance. Maybe even Signalman. The Lecomte and Risen Star wins for WoW compare pretty favorably to the others at that time of the season, though.

I liked Improbable in the Derby and he's hard to see past in the Preakness. I'm more accepting of him as a legitimate favorite but not a lock and still want to focus on other horses outrunning their odds.

[Gerard02]

I did a quick scan of the rules from “Analyzing the Triple Crown” right now, only Improbable Qualifies on all rules.

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

I don't know about "rank outsider," but yeah, I'm against WoW as second choice. Several others have accomplished about as much at better prices and may have more upside. Alwaysmining, Anothertwistafate, and Win Win Win, for instance. Maybe even Signalman. The Lecomte and Risen Star wins for WoW compare pretty favorably to the others at that time of the season, though.

I liked Improbable in the Derby and he's hard to see past in the Preakness. I'm more accepting of him as a legitimate favorite but not a lock and still want to focus on other horses outrunning their odds.

i know iv said it a million times but the love for Signalman is nauseating. This horse has done nothing at 3 and never even ran a 90 beyer. His only redeeming quality might be that he would be one of those nonsensical Preakness bombers. cause he is no way close to being in this class. The horse got absolutely trounced in the Fountain of Youth and couldnt even beat another horse who I didnt understand the love for in Vekoma in the Bluegrass.

[The Biscuit]

I read that Oaklawn can be a speed bias course ... Improbable ran 2 races there this year and by the looks he was right off the pace in both , closing in both .

Just trying to figure out any similarities of courses comparing Pimlico to another track ....or how some horses may respond going to Pimlico from another track ?

Anyone ? ...thanks

[Aerocraft67]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

i know iv said it a million times but the love for Signalman is nauseating.

[PUP nudges Signalman closer to winner's circle...]

I don't know about "love," but at 30-1, I'm taking a closer look.

What catches my eye is the first five TFUS figs are all higher than the rest of the field at that time but for Improbable. I also like its balanced early/late pace profile in this field.

I'm not (yet) convinced it can post a winning run here, but I suspect it can outrun 30-1 and get in the mix.

[Blenheim]

What I find disconcerting is why Maximum Security, Country House and Code Of Honor chose not to run in the Preakness. Maximum Security is reported to come of of the Kentucky as "tired", Country House came down w/the "coughs" and Shug decided to hold out Code of Honor for other Stakes.

Whatever happened to Game Winner and Roadster; the Pletcher charges; that horse w/the crooked leg, I believe his name was um . . . Vekoma and his stablemate Tax? What about the rest of em, where they at? Point and question is has this Kentucky in particular . . . for reasons not fully examined, taken its toll far more so than other recent Kentuckys and if so did it put somethin' into or take somethin' out of Improbable and Tax? I'm beginning to think it took somethin' out of em' . . . why did Baffert put such a light work into Improbable, is that normal for him, I haven't checked.

If I draw a line through the Derby horses how does that change the handicappin' . . .

[burnsy]

I drew a line through this horse a month ago. Acted up yet again yesterday. Fave in both legs........... Put him in the Belmont! He’s good!
Oh , that Mike Smith , he’ll run faster this time !

[GMB@BP]

I think this horse is going to be outstanding when they cut him back. He is a very talented horse, just being asked to run at distances beyond his scope.

[Gerard02]

Improbable turned out to be a big zero. Even though, he was placed fourth, he still officially placed fifth in the Derby. He therefore did not qualify on Rule 1. He would have just scored 3 points on the List. This would have made him a questionable wager. Numbers and were questionable, as well, since they only scored 3 points. War of Will ran a good race. The rail ride was Brilliant. He will definitely be in my Belmont pick. I had WOW in my triple picks. Just did not work out.

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I think this horse is going to be outstanding when they cut him back. He is a very talented horse, just being asked to run at distances beyond his scope.

Hell, that’s in these threads from me after the Ark Derby. They were reaching for the dream. No fault in that. But here’s the thing......people don’t have to bet on it and they do anyway. The horse has had post parade and gate problems for months. Which makes the distance even tougher on him