Preakness Wrap up

[burnsy]

Originally Posted by clicknow

Again, this is the problem with classic distance races......horses who have been forced to run in prep races that are way too short for them (like Country House) are going to come off as no-hopers to the average handicapper. You can look at both their sire side and mare side "dosage profiles" and it's very obvious that "speed" is not their strong point........ They don't excel at 1-1/16th. They shine as stretch runners at greater distances because they have plenty left in the tank. These horses come out of mile type races and back at the barn are probably wondering "was I racing or just taking a short breeze?" .....

You can watch true stamina horses running along in races that are 10F-14F and they are relaxed as can be. Galloping along and aren't even close to being winded. It's really wonderful to watch, if you have a *thing* for 10F+ distance races........but we just don't get to see very much of it here in U.S. racing.

because I like the long routers, The Belmont has always been my favorite TC race, but by the time it comes around we have already "burnt out" some of the best ones running them at distances at which they are ill-suited.

Everything you are saying is why I like Maximum Security. He started in sprints, as you said, that’s how it’s done here. But when he stretched out in the Fla Derby. That was a thing of beauty. He’s basically cantering 24’s and change then throws a 23 and change quarter. I agree with you because 90 % or more of these horses can’t do that. It’s not the way it’s done here anymore. This brings me to the Belmont. Which now a days 8 of 10 runnings are a front end, one pace deal. Which means the horses with tactical speed have a huge advantage. People are bringing up ground loss and excuses every race. On these distance races it’s hardly a factor. All signs are War Of Will is going. And this is why he was easy in The Preakness. In the Belmont, he will get position, most likely on the inside again and one pace the field. If there is no legit pace duel , I don’t care if. Win Win Win and Game Winner lost 3 miles in there last races they won’t reel him in. Most of these horses can’t do what you are saying...... you got the nail on the head and it’s a great angle that I use this time of year .

[Fightingirish51195]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Everything you are saying is why I like Maximum Security. He started in sprints, as you said, that’s how it’s done here. But when he stretched out in the Fla Derby. That was a thing of beauty. He’s basically cantering 24’s and change then throws a 23 and change quarter. I agree with you because 90 % or more of these horses can’t do that. It’s not the way it’s done here anymore. This brings me to the Belmont. Which now a days 8 of 10 runnings are a front end, one pace deal. Which means the horses with tactical speed have a huge advantage. People are bringing up ground loss and excuses every race. On these distance races it’s hardly a factor. All signs are War Of Will is going. And this is why he was easy in The Preakness. In the Belmont, he will get position, most likely on the inside again and one pace the field. If there is no legit pace duel , I don’t care if. Win Win Win and Game Winner lost 3 miles in there last races they won’t reel him in. Most of these horses can’t do what you are saying...... you got the nail on the head and it’s a great angle that I use this time of year .

MS came home in 22 change in the derby. That’s utterly phenomenal.

Never mind I think someone gave me bad info

[milfores]

Originally Posted by bobphilo

While I disagree with betting on hopeless longshots just because of the rider, as the best rider in the world cannot make a slow horse run any faster, I do congratulate you. At least you used some method. What kills me is that some dope made a ton of good handicappers' money without looking at the PPs based on it's name thinking that it meant it was ever fast.

Who said I only bet Everfast because of the rider; I said Everfast came onto my radar. Of course I checked out the pps and watched videos. Maybe you don't think the jockey can make a difference - I do - and I watch that. Closely.
I also made a hefty derb profit on #20. My method works for me, what can I say more than that. Here's to us both coming away winners in the Belmont!

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by milfores

Who said I only bet Everfast because of the rider; I said Everfast came onto my radar. Of course I checked out the pps and watched videos. Maybe you don't think the jockey can make a difference - I do - and I watch that. Closely.
I also made a hefty derb profit on #20. My method works for me, what can I say more than that. Here's to us both coming away winners in the Belmont!

I definitely think that the ride can make a difference. A bad rider can mess up a horses chances. A good rider can only make a difference by having a horse running to a potential it has already indicated. Horses with PPs like Everfast are poor bets in the long run no matter who rides them. I will second your wishes for good luck in the Belmont for both of us.

[bobphilo]

Originally Posted by burnsy

Everything you are saying is why I like Maximum Security. He started in sprints, as you said, that’s how it’s done here. But when he stretched out in the Fla Derby. That was a thing of beauty. He’s basically cantering 24’s and change then throws a 23 and change quarter. I agree with you because 90 % or more of these horses can’t do that. It’s not the way it’s done here anymore. This brings me to the Belmont. Which now a days 8 of 10 runnings are a front end, one pace deal. Which means the horses with tactical speed have a huge advantage. People are bringing up ground loss and excuses every race. On these distance races it’s hardly a factor. All signs are War Of Will is going. And this is why he was easy in The Preakness. In the Belmont, he will get position, most likely on the inside again and one pace the field. If there is no legit pace duel , I don’t care if. Win Win Win and Game Winner lost 3 miles in there last races they won’t reel him in. Most of these horses can’t do what you are saying...... you got the nail on the head and it’s a great angle that I use this time of year .

Surely you jest. The fact is that most horses with a modicum of speed can finish fast if they crawl early and save their energy.
Where did you get the idea that ground loss doesn't matter in distance races? Ground loss is ground loss and requires more energy to make up. It's simple physics and exercise physiology. Let me introduce you to trips as part of handicapping. Would you bet a horse who is made to start several lengths behind the field unless he is several lengths superior to his rivals?
Now you are also saying that all the rules of statistical analysis regarding sample size are suspended because of the time of year and the small sample of Belmonts run.
I have never seen more of the laws of science and statistics violated in one post.