Winx has done it all, but it's only natural to want more

[georgetkingiv]

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/...08-p51bx3.html

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by georgetkingiv

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/...08-p51bx3.html

If they were going to do it, they should have tried when she was still at her peak. Now, if she runs well but loses because she's lost a step or two, it would give fuel to those that have doubted her quality all along. She has already beaten a top flight Euro at home. It would have been great to see her against a full field of the best Europe has to offer, but I think they missed the window.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

Winx's jockey Hugh Bowman has said in the last 24 hours that Winx is racing as well as ever and could race on. I agree with him. Winx is still racing very close to her best. She could win overseas

But I don't see her going overseas as trainer Chris Waller cannot control the race entries like he can in Sydney where he trains 50% of the good horses thanks to Aussie racing authorities allowing stables to grow to mega proportions

She runs in this Saturday's Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Missing from the race are the 2 recent winners of G1 races over 2000m in Sydney in Avilius and The Autumn Sun. Waller trains and controls The Autumn Sun. Godolphin own Avilius. 2nd fave in the early markets is He's Eminent which last won a race in August 2017 and was beaten by Avilius last time by 2.3 lengths

Winx is a better horse than Avilius and The Autumn Sun but that is beside the point. The fact is both these horses are good enough to beat Winx if they have all the luck in running and Winx has bad luck in running. Winx rarely has bad luck in running which is interesting in itself given she is a backmarker. However if you just leave horses like Avilius and The Autumn Sun out of the race it makes it easier to maintain the streak

Listen to this interview with trainer Chris Waller from a few months ago at the beginning of her current prep. Waller says that protecting the winning streak is everything and the reason for this is Winx's winning streak attracts interest from people who don't follow racing. Winx is more a marketing tool than a racehorse

http://media.skyracing.com.au/POD/59/ekEk0s.mp3

[georgetkingiv]

https://www.smh.com.au/sport/racing/...08-p51c29.html

[classhandicapper]

Connections are never going to say their horse has lost a step.

I'm no expert on Australian racing, but I know what I am seeing this year. I think it's pretty clear that Winx has lost a 1/2 step.

It was also obvious to me that Zenyatta had lost a step at 6 compared to what she was at her peak at 4 (not 5) before she even had her greatest accomplishments.

The thing about great horses is that they can keep winning even at less than 100% because the gap between them and most of the other horses just narrows. It doesn't totally disappear.

I'll grant that if they are holding out other horses to ensure the streak stays alive, that's not my idea of sporting. If however top horses are avoiding her because they don't want the loss and can earn more money in other races, that's not her fault. It happens all the time when great horses show up.

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Connections are never going to say their horse has lost a step.

I'm no expert on Australian racing, but I know what I am seeing this year. I think it's pretty clear that Winx has lost a 1/2 step.

It was also obvious to me that Zenyatta had lost a step at 6 compared to what she was at her peak at 4 (not 5) before she even had her greatest accomplishments.

The thing about great horses is that they can keep winning even at less than 100% because the gap between them and most of the other horses just narrows. It doesn't totally disappear.

I'll grant that if they are holding out other horses to ensure the streak stays alive, that's not my idea of sporting. If however top horses are avoiding her because they don't want the loss and can earn more money in other races, that's not her fault. It happens all the time when great horses show up.

according to her RPR her three best races.


2016 Cox, 2017 George Ryder and the 2017 Turnbull


Allan

[Gamblor]

Originally Posted by Seabiscuit@AR

Winx's jockey Hugh Bowman has said in the last 24 hours that Winx is racing as well as ever and could race on. I agree with him. Winx is still racing very close to her best. She could win overseas

But I don't see her going overseas as trainer Chris Waller cannot control the race entries like he can in Sydney where he trains 50% of the good horses thanks to Aussie racing authorities allowing stables to grow to mega proportions

She runs in this Saturday's Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Missing from the race are the 2 recent winners of G1 races over 2000m in Sydney in Avilius and The Autumn Sun. Waller trains and controls The Autumn Sun. Godolphin own Avilius. 2nd fave in the early markets is He's Eminent which last won a race in August 2017 and was beaten by Avilius last time by 2.3 lengths

Winx is a better horse than Avilius and The Autumn Sun but that is beside the point. The fact is both these horses are good enough to beat Winx if they have all the luck in running and Winx has bad luck in running. Winx rarely has bad luck in running which is interesting in itself given she is a backmarker. However if you just leave horses like Avilius and The Autumn Sun out of the race it makes it easier to maintain the streak

Listen to this interview with trainer Chris Waller from a few months ago at the beginning of her current prep. Waller says that protecting the winning streak is everything and the reason for this is Winx's winning streak attracts interest from people who don't follow racing. Winx is more a marketing tool than a racehorse

http://media.skyracing.com.au/POD/59/ekEk0s.mp3

You’re a dickhead.

[Gamblor]

One of the betting companies is offering a promo “winx to win and (trainer) Chris Waller to cry”, odds $2.00, or 1-1. It’s essentially free money (Waller will bawl like a newborn) but it’s a funny promo. Max $50

[georgetkingiv]

Originally Posted by Gamblor

One of the betting companies is offering a promo “winx to win and (trainer) Chris Waller to cry”, odds $2.00, or 1-1. It’s essentially free money (Waller will bawl like a newborn) but it’s a funny promo. Max $50

I saw that the other day. That is pretty funny and I think they even had stipulations on what exactly constitutes a cry. Lol

[AskinHaskin]

Originally Posted by georgetkingiv

Winx has done it all

If under “done it all” you include getting beat five times by First Seal, then maybe (or Makybe ) I’d agree.

Why give up as the 2nd-leading earner of all time?


(lol - I know: ”Stud value”, right??)

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AskinHaskin

If under “done it all” you include getting beat five times by First Seal, then maybe (or Makybe ) I’d agree.

Why give up as the 2nd-leading earner of all time?


(lol - I know: ”Stud value”, right??)

I'm not not super familiar with First seal. However...

Had First Seal been some huge world beater at the time and Winx kept running 2nd, you could make a good case that Winx was losing to a better horse and only took over when the other one was gone. But First Seal did not even win all the races where Winx was beaten. So neither of them was a world beater at the time.

More likely is that First Seal was ahead of Winx at that time, but neither of them was especially good. Then Winx got really good and First Seal had some injury issues and never did.

[AskinHaskin]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I'm not not super familiar with First seal. However...

Had First Seal been some huge world beater at the time and Winx kept running 2nd, you could make a good case that Winx was losing to a better horse and only took over when the other one was gone. But First Seal did not even win all the races where Winx was beaten. So neither of them was a world beater at the time.

More likely is that First Seal was ahead of Winx at that time, but neither of them was especially good. Then Winx got really good and First Seal had some injury issues and never did.

Can’t figure out how you expected First Seal to win a race that she wasn’t even IN.

Aside from that, First Seal’s mark in the 6 races Winx lost was

3 wins

2nd by a head

2nd by 3/4


while Winx was running 5th and 7th in a couple of those.

In their initial Group I they were one-two with First Seal winning by 3.

Winx has indeed beaten First Seal but to suggest Winx is significantly better is rather absurd given their head-to-head record.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AskinHaskin

Can’t figure out how you expected First Seal to win a race that she wasn’t even IN.

Aside from that, First Seal’s mark in the 6 races Winx lost was

3 wins

2nd by a head

2nd by 3/4


while Winx was running 5th and 7th in a couple of those.

In their initial Group I they were one-two with First Seal winning by 3.

Winx has indeed beaten First Seal but to suggest Winx is significantly better is rather absurd given their head-to-head record.

Again, when First Seal was beating Winx, she wasn't winning all those races and Winx was well beaten. That screams and shouts that First seal was not a world beater and the Winx of that time period was not as good as the Winx we saw later.

If Winx was coming in 2nd in all the head to head races and First Seal was the horse beating her and winning every time, then we'd know that Winx was already really good, but she ran into an even better horse.

WAY more likely is neither of them was a world beater at the time they were running against each other but Winx eventually got much better. If not, she would have been beaten here or there by other horses like she was early in her career when she was finishing off the board.

[AskinHaskin]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Again, when First Seal was beating Winx, she wasn't winning all those races and Winx was well beaten. That screams and shouts that First seal was not a world beater and the Winx of that time period was not as good as the Winx we saw later.

If Winx was coming in 2nd in all the head to head races and First Seal was the horse beating her and winning every time, then we'd know that Winx was already really good, but she ran into an even better horse.

WAY more likely is neither of them was a world beater at the time they were running against each other but Winx eventually got much better. If not, she would have been beaten here or there by other horses like she was early in her career when she was finishing off the board.

LOL - if we can say one thing about Winx, it is clearly


"She is not a world-beater".


That much has never been at issue.


When you race only at the Del Monte plant, vs. tomato cans, you cannot be accepted as any sort of a world-beater.


Though she did top Highland Reel once, four years ago - the same year in which Winx was repeatedly stuffed by First Seal (who in your estimation is surely just another tomato can).

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by AskinHaskin

LOL - if we can say one thing about Winx, it is clearly


"She is not a world-beater".


That much has never been at issue.


When you race only at the Del Monte plant, vs. tomato cans, you cannot be accepted as any sort of a world-beater.


Though she did top Highland Reel once, four years ago - the same year in which Winx was repeatedly stuffed by First Seal (who in your estimation is surely just another tomato can).

Well, we'll have to agree to disagree.

I'm not an expert on Australian racing. Like all the skeptics, I know they've been padding her record a bit the last year or two.

However, people that are very familiar with the quality of Australian racing relative to other countries like Timeform and Racing Post have consistently had her rated near or at the top of the world and much better than early in her career.

There are also people that have timed her splits and closing times. Some of them have been among the best you are ever going to see anywhere in the world.

I also know what I have seen when she's faced better fields. She pissed on them with a ton in reserve.

That's enough for me to know that peak Winx was an outstanding world class mare that was not the same as the one that was losing and finishing up the track against First Seal. She got much better. That much is obvious.