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Old 04-08-2019, 09:52 PM   #46
f2tornado
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Given there has been a different winner for almost every prep one could consider this one the most competitive fields in history or one of the biggest piles of shat in history.

With the fall of Instagrand, this Derby now appears to be lacking a cheap speed horse and not a heck of a lot of speed in general. The closing speed in the 9F challenges has been underwhelming at best. If a colt like Maximum Security gets in front then he can potentially stay there all day. He's the same female family as Bodemeister, Forty Niner, Swale, Genuine Risk, etc. He's also the fastest horse in the race if you believe Beyer, the only RAN horse to post fast final 3/8 and 1/8 fractions, the winner of the FL Derby that has won about half these things the past couple decades, splits that no longer look like walking the dog after the farce displayed in the Santa Anita, and the only horse (pending the Ark) to post a triple digit Beyer figure (two of them). You might get 7-1 or more on him. Better shot than most in here.
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Old 04-08-2019, 11:57 PM   #47
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If a colt like Maximum Security gets in front then he can potentially stay there all day.
Potentially is the right word. I only know his behavior on the Gulfstream track, at 9f or less. He's never run anywhere else. Doesn't that bother anybody?
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Old 04-09-2019, 12:45 AM   #48
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Given there has been a different winner for almost every prep one could consider this one the most competitive fields in history or one of the biggest piles of shat in history.

With the fall of Instagrand, this Derby now appears to be lacking a cheap speed horse and not a heck of a lot of speed in general. The closing speed in the 9F challenges has been underwhelming at best. If a colt like Maximum Security gets in front then he can potentially stay there all day. He's the same female family as Bodemeister, Forty Niner, Swale, Genuine Risk, etc. He's also the fastest horse in the race if you believe Beyer, the only RAN horse to post fast final 3/8 and 1/8 fractions, the winner of the FL Derby that has won about half these things the past couple decades, splits that no longer look like walking the dog after the farce displayed in the Santa Anita, and the only horse (pending the Ark) to post a triple digit Beyer figure (two of them). You might get 7-1 or more on him. Better shot than most in here.
Its certainly lacking quality speed, the speed has been getting buried all season long.

That being said lets see what happens with Omaha Beach this weekend, he seems to have some class.
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Old 04-09-2019, 01:22 AM   #49
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With the fall of Instagrand, this Derby now appears to be lacking a cheap speed horse and not a heck of a lot of speed in general. The closing speed in the 9F challenges has been underwhelming at best. If a colt like Maximum Security gets in front then he can potentially stay there all day.
Anothertwistafate was part of the opening quarter in the Sunland Park Derby and was just held off the blistering half mile fraction.

Omaha Beach attended the opening quarter in the Rebel and then drew abreast with the leader after a half mile.

War of Will was hard held off a fast pace in the Risen Star.

Long Range Toddy set the opening quarter mile in the Rebel, then was hard held off the pace after a half which was also attended by Galilean.

Vekoma pushed the speedy Somelikeithotbrown in the Blue Grass through the first quarter before engaging fully after a sharp half mile.

Tax has shown good gate speed in all his NY starts and settled in the garden spot behind some hopeless run-offs in his last pair.

Knicks Go is a frontrunner who should have 18 Derby points (for some reason he isn't listed on the leader board) and is probable for the Lexington which could push him into the mix with a win there.

Any of these has the early speed to push Maximum Security well beyond the cake walk he enjoyed in the Florida Derby.
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Old 04-09-2019, 08:41 AM   #50
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Any of these has the early speed to push Maximum Security well beyond the cake walk he enjoyed in the Florida Derby.
I said the same after American Pharoah walked the dog in the Rebel. Oops. And he had some genuine speed to contend with in the Derby.

Derby pace will almost certainly be faster than Florida but I'm still expecting a merry go round. Very few horses have shown much closing kick against the speed this prep cycle. Horses with sub 37.8 final 3/8th fractions are limited. I'm not bold enough to single this guy but having a hard time finding another compelling play (pending the Ark). It's rare to potentially get 7-1 on the horse with best BSF.
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Old 04-09-2019, 10:16 AM   #51
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I said the same after American Pharoah walked the dog in the Rebel. Oops. And he had some genuine speed to contend with in the Derby.
The difference between American Pharoah and Maximum Security (based solely on your argument) is that the former ran in another prep after his cakewalk (which was his first out off an injury and layoff).

American Pharoah next romped in the Arkansas Derby which featured one of the fastest early paces in the entire prep season. American Pharoah showed a new dimension by settling beautifully 2 or 3 lengths off the longshot pacesetter before pouring it on in the stretch under a hand ride.

Meanwhile, Maximum Security unsurprisingly had a bit of kick heading to the quarter pole after the pedestrian pace, when he separated himself from the maiden Bodexpress by a couple of lengths. His jock was all over him through the lane yet the horse was never able to shake Bodexpress completely off while holding sway to the wire.

American Pharoah, on the other hand, won his cakewalk Rebel with dominating authority despite tossing a shoe at the start. Never got more than a vigorous hand ride from Victor Espinoza before drawing away with every stride.
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Old 04-09-2019, 01:27 PM   #52
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American Pharoah, on the other hand, won his cakewalk Rebel with dominating authority despite tossing a shoe at the start. Never got more than a vigorous hand ride from Victor Espinoza before drawing away with every stride.
Indeed. My comparison stopped at the Rebel. I'm just not seeing strong early speed or much compelling late speed at a 9F prep for this Derby so whatever horses go early have far more than a puncher's chance than usual to stay there. We have yet to see that truly lethal late kick like American Pharoah put on in the Ark regardless of the pace. A couple like Win Win Win and Roadster did grab a fast final panel but failed on the final 3/8th test. I'm only aware of Super Saver and Grindstone winning the Derby after nailing a sub 12.8 final panel while running a final three panels slower than 37.8. The danger with this angle is it is using absolute speed versus relative speed and we have seen SA and AQU running really slow. Note: I see CJ provided some adjusted fractional times in the fractions thread for those that don't want to work with raw fractions.

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Old 04-09-2019, 01:55 PM   #53
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Indeed. My comparison stopped at the Rebel. I'm just not seeing strong early speed or much compelling late speed at a 9F prep for this Derby so whatever horses go early have far more than a puncher's chance than usual to stay there. We have yet to see that truly lethal late kick like American Pharoah put on in the Ark regardless of the pace. A couple like Win Win Win and Roadster did grab a fast final panel but failed on the final 3/8th test. I'm only aware of Super Saver and Grindstone winning the Derby after nailing a sub 12.8 final panel while running a final three panels slower than 37.8. The danger with this angle is it is using absolute speed versus relative speed and we have seen SA and AQU running really slow. Note: I see CJ provided some adjusted fractional times in the fractions thread for those that don't want to work with raw fractions.
Under the adjusted fractions Win Win Win goes sub 38. He is very interesting, but those slow breaks can end his derby chances right out of the gate.
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Old 04-09-2019, 04:20 PM   #54
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Under the adjusted fractions Win Win Win goes sub 38. He is very interesting, but those slow breaks can end his derby chances right out of the gate.
Yep. I like him, especially with Ortiz, but trouble prone horses won't find the Derby any easier. He will probably pass a bunch of horses in the final two panels but I expect comes up short of the win. I have a couple token wagers on him in Pool 2 and won't complain if he hits the exacta.
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Old 04-09-2019, 06:57 PM   #55
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The "pack" speed duel . . .

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Originally Posted by f2tornado View Post
I'm just not seeing strong early speed or much compelling late speed at a 9F prep for this Derby so whatever horses go early have far more than a puncher's chance than usual to stay there.
I agree.

Post position is critical here, so a bit early yet to come to any conclusion[s]; horse may draw the inside post and never get to run his race. You gotta figure they're not gonna let him squirt free, but one never knows . . .

Two-horse speed duels do not normally defeat the horses that engage in them, but three-horse speed duels do. (Quinn)

Gotta consider that one or more than one may want to challenge Maximus and there is the possibility of a "pack" speed duel; the stress and loss of energy being in that pack duel may have its consequences late stretch.
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Old 04-12-2019, 08:49 AM   #56
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Catching up on posts, and noticing a trend. You like to call people stalkers, right? Is burnsy your new target of affection?

PS. As admin, I can't be called a stalker, so don't even try.
Not only that, I’ve posted pre race opinions so many times. I just don’t as much anymore because the girlfriend says I don’t play well with others. She is right. But anyone that’s been here for a while and reads the “ picks section” knows I get price horses. I even posted a blog one Saratoga meet and posted about 95% of my plays and it was a pretty good (winning) meet. So, if he thinks I just post stuff after the fact, he’s nuts. I’m damn sure not going to pick derby horses weeks in advance. Who even makes it? Weather? And post positions? Pace? I know one thing for sure, Hidden Scroll doesn’t have a shot in hell but this horse does

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Old 04-15-2019, 09:38 AM   #57
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Need some Security . . .

I was takin' a look at some numbers and saw how Maximum Security appeared run off w/the thing . . . then I compared his Florida and the numbers of a few others w/the Derby average . . .


22.76; 46.37; 70.91; 96.59 -----------Derby Average, 2000-2018 PUP Derby Spreadsheet
24.42; 48.98; 72.90; 96.34; 108.86 - Maximum Security, Florida,To Equibase Chart
23.08; 47.50; 72.46; 97.53; 109.91 - Omaha Beach, Arkansas, To Equibase Chart
23.46; 47.23; 71.85; 97.48; 110.93 - Vekoma, Bluegrass, To Equibase Chart


These numbers are taken from the Official Equibase Chart, the first (3) fractions for Vekoma have been adjusted for lengths. It appears Maximus will find some company for the first few fractions . . .
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Old 04-15-2019, 09:57 AM   #58
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I was takin' a look at some numbers and saw how Maximum Security appeared run off w/the thing . . . then I compared his Florida and the numbers of a few others w/the Derby average . . .


22.76; 46.37; 70.91; 96.59 -----------Derby Average, 2000-2018 PUP Derby Spreadsheet
24.42; 48.98; 72.90; 96.34; 108.86 - Maximum Security, Florida,To Equibase Chart
23.08; 47.50; 72.46; 97.53; 109.91 - Omaha Beach, Arkansas, To Equibase Chart
23.46; 47.23; 71.85; 97.48; 110.93 - Vekoma, Bluegrass, To Equibase Chart


These numbers are taken from the Official Equibase Chart, the first (3) fractions for Vekoma have been adjusted for lengths. It appears Maximus will find some company for the first few fractions . . .
Ever since they implemented the points system in 2013, it practically eliminated all the cheap speed from entering the Derby. What is the Derby average for the 2013-2018 time frame?
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Old 04-15-2019, 10:01 AM   #59
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Ever since they implemented the points system in 2013, it practically eliminated all the cheap speed from entering the Derby. What is the Derby average for the 2013-2018 time frame?
2018 22.24 45.77 1:11.01 1:37.35 2:04.20
2017 22.70 46.53 1:11.12 1:37.27 2:03.59
2016 22.58 45.72 1:10.40 1:35.61 2:01.31
2015 23.24 47.34 1:11.29 1:36.45 2:03.02
2014 23.04 47.37 1:11.80 1:37.45 2:03.66
2013 22.57 45.33 1:09.80 1:36.16 2:02.89
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Old 04-15-2019, 10:03 AM   #60
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I was takin' a look at some numbers and saw how Maximum Security appeared run off w/the thing . . . then I compared his Florida and the numbers of a few others w/the Derby average . . .


22.76; 46.37; 70.91; 96.59 -----------Derby Average, 2000-2018 PUP Derby Spreadsheet
24.42; 48.98; 72.90; 96.34; 108.86 - Maximum Security, Florida,To Equibase Chart
23.08; 47.50; 72.46; 97.53; 109.91 - Omaha Beach, Arkansas, To Equibase Chart
23.46; 47.23; 71.85; 97.48; 110.93 - Vekoma, Bluegrass, To Equibase Chart


These numbers are taken from the Official Equibase Chart, the first (3) fractions for Vekoma have been adjusted for lengths. It appears Maximus will find some company for the first few fractions . . .
The thing that scary good for Omaha Beach is as impressive his Arkansas Derby was he really wasnt pressed that hard until the final 1/8th, while Improbable was asked to go around the turn, Mike Smith was just sitting on Omaha knowing he had a monster underneath him.
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